Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
Open accessAbstract
After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Mobility restrictions had been used and studied in the past, for example to stop the spread of Ebola in Sierra Leone and H1N1 influenza.
“While in the above we reviewed COVID-19 related studies for their timely relevance, mobility restrictions had been used and studied in the past, for example to stop the spread of Ebola in Sierra Leone [108], H1N1 influenza [109], etc.”
From Human-centred artificial intelligence for mobile health sensing: challenges and opportunities (2023) · cites this paper as [109]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control
(1992) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-117-2-174_4 · Cited by 7,818 · see citing works
The architecture of complex weighted networks.
Barrat, A., Barthelemy, M., Pastor-Satorras, R., & Vespignani, A. (2003) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.0400087101 · Cited by 4,084 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Theory of Branching Processes
Ney, P. E., & Harris, T. E. (1965) · Technometrics · doi:10.2307/1266137 · Cited by 2,460 · see citing works
Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic
Ferguson, N. M., Cummings, D. A. T., Fraser, C., Cajka, J. C., Cooley, P. C., & Burke, D. S. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04795 · Cited by 2,195 · see citing works
Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings
Fraser, C., Donnelly, C. A., Cauchemez, S., Hanage, W. P., Kerkhove, M. D. V., Hollingsworth, T. D., Griffin, J. T., Baggaley, R. F., Jenkins, H. E., Lyons, E., et al. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1176062 · Cited by 1,909 · see citing works
Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases
Balcan, D., Vittoria Colizza, A., Gonçalves, B., Hu, H., Ramasco, J. J., & Vespignani, A. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0906910106 · Cited by 1,347 · see citing works
Self-citationContaining Pandemic Influenza at the Source
Longini, I. M., Nizam, A., Xu, S., Ungchusak, K., Hanshaoworakul, W., Cummings, D. A. T., & Halloran, M. E. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1115717 · Cited by 1,158 · see citing works
Vittoria Colizza, A., Barrat, A., Barthélemy, M., & Vespignani, A. (2006) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0510525103 · Cited by 1,154 · see citing works
Self-citationForecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world
Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D., & Geisel, T. (2004) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0308344101 · Cited by 1,063 · see citing works
Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
Germann, T. C., Kadau, K., Longini, I. M., & Macken, C. A. (2006) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0601266103 · Cited by 1,047 · see citing works
Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control
Cohen, J. E. (1992) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1992.03490230111047 · Cited by 1,017 · see citing works
Reaction–diffusion processes and metapopulation models in heterogeneous networks
Vittoria Colizza, A., Pastor‐Satorras, R., & Vespignani, A. (2007) · Nature Physics · doi:10.1038/nphys560 · Cited by 877 · see citing works
Self-citationModeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions
Vittoria Colizza, A., Barrat, A., Barthélemy, M., Valleron, A., & Vespignani, A. (2007) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013 · Cited by 712 · see citing works
Self-citationContaining Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Agents
Longini, I. M. (2004) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwh092 · Cited by 706 · see citing works
A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza
Rvachev, L. A., & Longini, I. M. (1985) · Mathematical Biosciences · doi:10.1016/0025-5564(85)90064-1 · Cited by 544 · see citing works
Vittoria Colizza, A., & Vespignani, A. (2007) · Journal of Theoretical Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.11.028 · Cited by 484 · see citing works
Self-citationA structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions
Sattenspiel, L., & Dietz, K. (1995) · Mathematical Biosciences · doi:10.1016/0025-5564(94)00068-b · Cited by 371 · see citing works
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Pandemic Influenza, International Measures
Bell, D., Nicoll, A., Fukuda, K., Horby, P., Monto, A. S., Hayden, F. G., Wylks, C. E., Sanders, L., & Nguyen‐Van‐Tam, J. S. (2006) · Emerging infectious diseases · doi:10.3201/eid1201.051370 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
Balcan, D., Hu, H., Goncalves, B., Bajardi, P., Poletto, C., Ramasco, J. J., Paolotti, D., Perra, N., Tizzoni, M., Van Den Broeck, W., et al. (2009) · PORTO Publications Open Repository TOrino (Politecnico di Torino) · Cited by 311 · see citing works
Self-citationControlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions
Epstein, J. M., Goedecke, D. M., Yu, F., Morris, R. J., Wagener, D. K., & Bobashev, G. (2007) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0000401 · Cited by 310 · see citing works
Delaying the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza
Cooper, B. S., Pitman, R., Edmunds, W. J., & Gay, N. J. (2006) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030212 · Cited by 305 · see citing works
Balcan, D., Hu, H., Gonçalves, B., Bajardi, P., Poletto, C., Ramasco, J. J., Paolotti, D., Perra, N., Tizzoni, M., den Broeck, W. V., et al. (2009) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/1741-7015-7-45 · Cited by 303 · see citing works
Self-citationAssessing the impact of airline travel on the geographic spread of pandemic influenza
Grais, R. F., Ellis, J. H., & Glass, G. E. (2003) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1023/a:1026140019146 · Cited by 300 · see citing works
Brownstein, J. S., Wolfe, C. J., & Mandl, K. D. (2006) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030401 · Cited by 281 · see citing works
Public health interventions and SARS spread, 2003
Bell, D. M., & World Health Organization Working Group on Prevention of International and Community Transmission of SARS (2004) · Emerging Infectious Diseases · doi:10.3201/eid1011.040729 · Cited by 272 · see citing works
Will travel restrictions control the international spread of pandemic influenza?
Hollingsworth, T. D., Ferguson, N. M., & Anderson, R. M. (2006) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/nm0506-497 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
Estimating spatial coupling in epidemiological systems: a mechanistic approach
Keeling, M. J., & Rohani, P. (2002) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00268.x · Cited by 205 · see citing works
On the Theory of Age-Dependent Stochastic Branching Processes
Bellman, R., & Harris, T. E. (1948) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.34.12.601 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Entry screening to delay local transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1)
Cowling, B. J., Lau, L. L., Wu, P., Wong, H. W., Fang, V. J., Riley, S., & Nishiura, H. (2010) · BMC Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-82 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic
Flahault, A., Vergu, E., Coudeville, L., & Grais, R. F. (2006) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.079 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Polynomial Growth in Branching Processes with Diverging Reproductive Number
Vázquez, A. (2006) · Physical Review Letters · doi:10.1103/physrevlett.96.038702 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Global disease spread: Statistics and estimation of arrival times
Gautreau, A., Barrat, A., & Barthélemy, M. (2007) · Journal of Theoretical Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.12.001 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Tomba, G. S., & Wallinga, J. (2008) · Mathematical Biosciences · doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2008.02.009 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Epidemiology of new influenza A (H1N1) virus infection, United Kingdom, April – June 2009
Health Pr Collective Health Protection Agency (2009) · Eurosurveillance · doi:10.2807/ese.14.22.19232-en · Cited by 69 · see citing works
A method for assessing the global spread of HIV‐1 infection based on air travel
Flahault, A., & Valleron, A. (1992) · Mathematical Population Studies · doi:10.1080/08898489209525336 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Cruz-Pacheco, G., Duran, L., Esteva, L., Minzoni, A. A., López‐Cervantes, M., Panayotaros, P., Ahued-Ortega, A., & Villaseñor-Ruíz, I. (2009) · Eurosurveillance · doi:10.2807/ese.14.26.19254-en · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Air Travel and the Spread of Influenza: Important Caveats
Viboud, C. G., Miller, M. A., Grenfell, B. T., Bjørnstad, O. N., & Simonsen, L. (2006) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030503 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Description of the early stage of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Germany, 27 April-16 June 2009
Novel influenza A investigation team (2009) · Eurosurveillance · doi:10.2807/ese.14.31.19295-en · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Description of the early stage of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Germany, 27 April-16 June 2009
Alpers, K., Altmann, D., der Heiden, M. A., et al. (2009) · Publication server of the Robert Koch Institute (Robert Kock Institute) · doi:10.25646/384 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- [41]Murray JD 2005 Mathematical Biology. 3rd edition Berlin Springer Verlag
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Epidemic processes in complex networks
Pastor-Satorras, R., Castellano, C., Van Mieghem, P., & Vespignani, A. (2015) · Reviews of Modern Physics · doi:10.1103/revmodphys.87.925 · Cited by 3,697 · see citing works
Self-citationNew technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases
Christaki, E. (2015) · Virulence · doi:10.1080/21505594.2015.1040975 · Cited by 226 · see citing works
Peak, C. M., Wesolowski, A., zu Erbach-Schoenberg, E., Tatem, A. J., Wetter, E., Lu, X., Power, D., Weidman-Grunewald, E., Ramos, S., Moritz, S., et al. (2018) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyy095 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
“3 The ultimate goals of travel restrictions (e.g. geographical containment and transmission interruption) depend first and fundamentally on the impact of travel restrictions on changes to human travel behaviour.”
BackgroundGozzi, N., Tizzoni, M., Chinazzi, M., Ferres, L., Vespignani, A., & Perra, N. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22601-6 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Self-citationHuman-centred artificial intelligence for mobile health sensing: challenges and opportunities
Dang, T., Spathis, D., Ghosh, A., & Mascolo, C. (2023) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.230806 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
- Authors
- Bajardi, P., Poletto, C., Ramasco, J. J., Tizzoni, M., Colizza, V., & Vespignani, A.
- Affiliations
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Institute for Scientific Interchange (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Vespignani, Alessandro
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2011-01-31
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- e16591
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3031602
- OpenAlex
- W2074329989
- Cited by
- 495
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 38 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 94 · 2020: 94 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 20 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 32 · 2013: 22 · 2012: 17
- FWCI
- 24.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Padua Research Archive (University of Padova) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- PORTO@Iris (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Iris (University of Trento) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- PORTO Publications Open Repository TOrino (Politecnico di Torino) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Eli Lilly and Company
- Lilly Endowment (2008 1639-000)
- National Institutes of Health
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency (1-0910039, DTRA-1-0910039)
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (R21DA024259)
- FP7 Ideas: European Research Council (204863)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Keywords
- 2009 H1N1 pandemic, travel restrictions, human mobility networks, air travel, epidemic containment, pandemic spread, metapopulation dynamics, international travel restrictions
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Influenza, Human, Models, Theoretical, Travel, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Pandemics
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
