Contact Tracing of Tuberculosis: A Systematic Review of Transmission Modelling Studies
Open accessAbstract
The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS) appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development and validation and hence better inform future public health policy.
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Across disease areas, evidence has shown that partner services are effective if applied strategically for identifying new cases, stopping onward transmission, helping to end outbreaks, and supporting elimination goals.
“Across these disease areas, evidence has shown how effective partner services are if they are applied strategically – not only for identifying new cases to enable individuals and their partners to access treatment and care (84, 85), but also for stopping onward transmission (86), helping to end outbreaks (87) and supporting the achievement of elimination goals (88).”
From Updated recommendations for the treatment of Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Chlamydia trachomatis, and Treponema pallidum (syphilis) and new recommendations on syphilis testing and partner services (2024) · cites this paper as [85]
The Results, ‘Key Findings of the Studies’ (page not provided), reports models predicting that contact tracing followed by effective treatment of latent TB could lead to epidemic elimination in low-burden settings. This supports the elimination-goals portion attached to citation 88, but not an established effectiveness claim across disease areas: the Conclusions (page not provided) describe the evidence as limited in detail and context. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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- Authors
- Begun, M., Newall, A. T., Marks, G. B., & Wood, J. G.
- Affiliations
- UNSW Sydney (AU)
- Liverpool Hospital (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Begun, Matt
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2013-09-04
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- e72470
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3762785
- OpenAlex
- W2013416878
- Cited by
- 52
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 2
- FWCI
- 0.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- National Health and Medical Research Council (630724)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › HIV, TB, and STIs Epidemiology
- Keywords
- tuberculosis, contact tracing, DOTS, active case finding, model validation, high-burden settings, agent-based modeling, tuberculosis control policy
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Tuberculosis, Contact Tracing
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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