Too few, too late: U.S. Endangered Species Act undermined by inaction and inadequate funding
Open accessAbstract
This year, the Conference of Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity will meet to finalize a post 2020-framework for biodiversity conservation, necessitating critical analysis of current barriers to conservation success. Here, we tackle one of the enduring puzzles about the U.S. Endangered Species Act, often considered a model for endangered species protection globally: Why have so few species been successfully recovered? For the period of 1992–2020, we analyzed trends in the population sizes of species of concern, trends in the time between when species are first petitioned for listing and when they actually receive protection, and trends in funding for the listing and recovery of imperiled species. We find that small population sizes at time of listing, coupled with delayed protection and insufficient funding, continue to undermine one of the world’s strongest laws for protecting biodiversity.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The U.S. Endangered Species Act has recovered few species because species are often listed only after reaching very small population sizes, protection is delayed, and funding is inadequate. From 1992–2020, listing trends showed little improvement in population size at listing, variable wait times, and declining per-species resources.
Key findings
- From 1992–2020, FWS listed 970 species under the ESA; 68% were plants, 18% invertebrates, and 14% vertebrates, with full species accounting for 80% of listings.
- Population size at time of listing did not differ significantly between 1985–1991 and 1992–2020 for plants, vertebrates, or invertebrates (Wilcoxon p = 0.08, 0.41, and 0.66, respectively). Number of populations at listing also did not differ significantly for plants and invertebrates (p = 0.91 and 0.06), but median vertebrate populations increased from 2 to 4 (p = 0.04).
- Median wait times from petition to protection were 5.9 years for 1992–1999 petitions (n = 49), 9.1 years for 2000–2009 (n = 203), and 3.0 years for 2010–2020 (n = 26); the paper states there were insufficient data to test whether the decrease was significant.
- Resource Management Appropriations per species dropped by nearly 50% since 1985; Section 4 Appropriations peaked at $25.9 million USD in 2010 and fell to $20.1 million USD by 2020, while the number of ESA-listed species increased by over 300% between 1985 and 2020.
Methods
- ESA listings were collated from FWS’s Environmental Conservation Online System (ECOS), and population data came from Final and Proposed Listing Notices. The analysis was restricted to wild populations of plants and animals in the U.S. and its territories, excluding captive populations; when sources gave ranges or upper limits, the authors recorded the largest possible population size, and six species with no known wild individuals or populations were recorded as zero. Population data for 1985–1991 came from Wilcove et al.
- Wilcoxon Rank-sum Tests compared median number of individuals and populations at time of listing between 1985–1992 and 1993–2020, with significance threshold p = 0.05.
- Funding data for Resource Management Appropriations and Section 4 Appropriations came from annual federal budget legislation and were corrected for inflation to 2019 USD. Funding per species was calculated by dividing annual Resource Management Appropriations by the total number of ESA-protected species as of the first day of that calendar year.
Limitations
- The paper states that there were insufficient data to test whether the apparent relationship between fewer listings and shorter wait times was significant. It also states that the analysis was restricted to wild populations and excluded captive populations, and that favoring maximum population estimates made the analyses an optimistic “best case scenario.”
- Evident from the text: the study is an observational trend analysis and does not establish causation between funding, wait times, and recovery outcomes. The wait-time periods also had very different petition counts, and funding per species is an average that may not reflect allocation to individual species.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 5 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingreasoning
Resource Management Appropriations, when measured on a per species basis, dropped by nearly 50% since 1985.
“As such, Resource Management Appropriations, when measured on a per species basis, have dropped by nearly 50% since 1985.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Full species accounted for 80% of listings during 1992-2020.
“Full species accounted for the majority of listings during this period (80%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
Very few species have received protection in the two-year period prescribed in the ESA.
“Consistently, very few species have received protection in the two-year period that is prescribed in the ESA.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Section 4 Appropriations peaked in 2010 at $25.9 million USD before dropping to $20.1 million USD by 2020.
“The same trend is observed in Section 4 Appropriations, which peaked in 2010 at $25.9 million USD before dropping to $20.1 million USD by 2020.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The median number of vertebrate populations at time of listing was slightly greater in 1992-2020 than in 1985-1991, increasing from 2 to 4 populations (p = 0.04).
“However, the median number of vertebrate populations at time of listing was slightly greater in the 1992–2020 time period, increasing from 2 to 4 populations (p = 0.04).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data
The number of species listed for protection under the ESA increased by over 300% between 1985-2020.
“Concurrently, the number of species listed for protection under the ESA increased by over 300% between 1985–2020.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
A pattern of not protecting species until their populations have reached very low levels increases both the time to recovery and the likelihood that species will vanish entirely due to environmental, genetic, and demographic stochasticity.
“a pattern of not protecting species until their populations have reached very low levels, which increases both the time to recovery and the likelihood that species will vanish entirely due to environmental, genetic, and demographic stochasticity [5]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] ME Gilpin, 1986, Minimum viable populations: processes of species extinction, In: Conservation Biology: The Science of Scarcity and Diversity. Sinauer, Sunderland, MA
- Interpretationreasoning
FWS is being asked to do more with less resources.
“The unfortunate conclusion is that FWS is being asked to do more with less resources.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The combination of delays in listing rare species, typically small population sizes at time of listing, and inadequate funding for recovery actions are the key factors that explain the relatively small number of listed species that have fully recovered.
“The combination of delays in listing rare species, the typically mall population sizes of species at time of listing, and inadequate funding for recovery actions, are the key factors that can explain the relatively small number of listed species that have fully recovered (Fig 2B).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: For species with very small or rapidly declining populations, a multi-year delay in receiving protection increases the risk of extinction.
- Interpretationown data
Most species are not receiving protection until they have reached dangerously low population sizes.
“Most species are not receiving protection until they have reached dangerously low population sizes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Protection under the ESA implies a slow process of clearing a backlog of rare but unprotected species rather than a failure to respond to recent rapid population declines in formerly common species.
“Their protection under the ESA implies a painfully slow process of clearing a backlog of rare but unprotected species as opposed to a failure to respond to recent, rapid population declines in formerly more common species.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The pattern of species being protected only at low population sizes has persisted throughout the quarter century since 1993.
“First reported in 1993, this pattern has persisted throughout the intervening quarter century.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
When a range or upper limit was given for population size at listing, the authors recorded the maximum possible value, making analyses an optimistic best-case scenario.
“This was done in order to obtain the largest possible estimate of each plant and animal population at time of listing, making our subsequent analyses an optimistic “best case scenario”.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
In the 48 years since enactment of the ESA, only 54 US species have been declared fully recovered and delisted.
“In the 48 years since enactment of the ESA, only 54 US species have been declared fully recovered and delisted [4].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [4] U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, 2021, Press Release: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Proposes Delisting 23 Species from Endangered Species Act Due to Extinction
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductown data
There were insufficient data to test whether the apparent decrease in wait times when fewer species are listed is significant.
“While wait times seem to decrease when fewer species are listed, there are insufficient data to test whether this effect is significant.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
Wait times may be exacerbated when limited resources for listing are strained by a large influx of petitions.
“This suggests that wait times may be exacerbated when limited resources for listing are strained by a large influx of petitions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 9
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 2
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor plants and invertebrates, total number of populations at time of listing did not differ significantly between 1985-1991 and 1992-2020 (p = 0.91 and 0.06, respectively).
“For plants and invertebrates, the total number of populations at time of listing (Fig 1B) also did not differ significantly between the 1985–1991 and 1992–2020 time periods (p = 0.91 and p = 0.06, respectively).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe number of petitions received was 49 for 1992-1999, 203 for 2000-2009, and 26 for 2010-2020.
“The number of petitions received during each period also varied greatly (n = 49, 203 and 26 for 1992–1999, 2000–2009 and 2010–2020, respectively).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataMedian wait time between petition and protection was 9.1 years for species petitioned 2000-2009, 5.9 years for 1992-1999, and 3.0 years for 2010-2020.
“Our analysis revealed longer wait times for species petitioned for listing during the 2000–2009 period (median = 9.1 years), compared to those petitioned for listing during the 1992–1999 period (median = 5.9 years), followed by shorter wait times for species petitioned for listing during the 2010–2020 period (median 3.0 years).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFrom 1992-2020, the FWS listed a total of 970 species for protection under the ESA; 68% were plants, 18% invertebrates, and 14% vertebrates.
“From 1992–2020, the FWS listed a total of 970 species for protection under the ESA; 68% of these listings were plants, 18% were invertebrates, and 14% were vertebrates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataInadequate funding has persisted for decades, with no clear relationship to which political party is in power.
“Our data suggest that inadequate funding has persisted for decades, with no clear relationship as to which political party is in power (Fig 2A).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor plants, vertebrates, and invertebrates, total population size at time of listing did not differ significantly between 1985-1991 and 1992-2020 (p = 0.08, 0.41, and 0.66, respectively).
“For each taxonomic group analyzed, the total population size at time of listing (Fig 1A) did not differ significantly between the 1985–1991 and 1992–2020 time periods (Wilcox Test values of p = 0.08, p = 0.41, and p = 0.66, for plants, vertebrates and invertebrates respectively).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataResource Management Appropriations climbed modestly from 1996-2010 before beginning a decade-long decline that was halted only in 2020.
“Resource Management Appropriations climbed modestly from 1996–2010 before beginning a decade-long decline that was halted only in 2020 (Fig 2A).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationGovernment expenditures for imperiled species management contribute to an improvement in recovery status and averted extinctions.
“Studies have shown that government expenditures for imperiled species management do contribute to an improvement in recovery status and averted extinctions [13].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [13] C Langpap, 2020, The economics of the US Endangered Species Act: A review of recent developments, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationInadequate funding for recovery actions is an explanation for the low rate of species recovery under the ESA.
“inadequate funding for recovery actions [7]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [7] GM Brown, 1998, Economics of the endangered species act, Journal of Economic Perspectives source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningMost species listed since 1993 had fallen to low population levels well before the time span of the study, reflecting past anthropogenic activities.
“We suspect that most of the species listed since 1993 had fallen to low population levels well before the time span of our study, a reflection of past anthropogenic activities.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn 1985-1991, the median population size at time of listing was 1075 for vertebrates, 999 for invertebrates, and less than 120 for plants.
“The authors found that the median population size at time of listing during the second decade of ‘legal protection’ by the ESA (1985–1991) was just 1075 for vertebrates and 999 individuals for invertebrates. The median population size at listing for plant species was less than 120 individuals.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [8] DS Wilcove, 1993, What exactly is an endangered species? An analysis of the US endangered species list: 1985–1991, Conservation Biology source
The paper relies on this without support.
For species with very small or rapidly declining populations, a multi-year delay in receiving protection increases the risk of extinction.
“For species with very small or rapidly declining populations, a multi-year delay in receiving protection increases the risk of extinction.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Time periods used for the population comparison differ
MinorThe methods say the comparison used species listed in 1985-1992 and 1993-2020, whereas the results say it compared 1985-1991 and 1992-2020. The two descriptions assign 1992 to different groups.
“We performed a non-parametric Wilcoxon Rank-sum Test to compare the medians of continuous variable x, the number of individuals at time of listing for species listed between 1985–1992, and continuous variable y, the number of individuals at time of listing for species listed between 1993–2020.”
“the total population size at time of listing (Fig 1A) did not differ significantly between the 1985–1991 and 1992–2020 time periods”
Cites
Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction
Ceballos, G., Ehrlich, P. R., Barnosky, A. D., García, A., Pringle, R. M., & Palmer, T. M. (2015) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1400253 · Cited by 4,220 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Accelerating rates of species extinction are a matter of global concern [1] as exemplified in the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) report that predicted the loss of over 1 million species in the foreseeable future, which will also have significant impacts on the…”
BackgroundIPBES (2019) · Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling · doi:10.5281/zenodo.3831673 · Cited by 3,376 · see citing works
(1986) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 1,152 · see citing works
Economics of the endangered species act
Brown, G. M., & Shogren, J. F. (1998) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.12.3.3 · Cited by 224 · see citing works
The Performance of the Endangered Species Act
Schwartz, M. W. (2008) · Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.39.110707.173538 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
The effectiveness of the US endangered species act: An econometric analysis using matching methods
Ferraro, P. J., McIntosh, C., & Ospina, M. (2007) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2007.01.002 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
What Exactly Is an Endangered Species? An Analysis of the U.S. Endangered Species List: 1985–1991
Wilcove, D. S., McMillan, M., & Winston, K. C. (1993) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1993.07010087.x · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Self-citationEndangered species recovery: A resource allocation problem
Gerber, L. R., Runge, M. C., Maloney, R. F., et al. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aat8434 · Cited by 105 · see citing works
The effectiveness of national biodiversity investments to protect the wealth of nature
SEIDL, A. F., Mulungu, K., Arlaud, M., van den Heuvel, O., & Riva, M. (2021) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-020-01372-1 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
The Economics of the U.S. Endangered Species Act: A Review of Recent Developments
Langpap, C., Kerkvliet, J. R., & Shogren, J. F. (2017) · Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · doi:10.1093/reep/rex026 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Wilde, C. (2014) · bepress Legal Repository · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, 2021, Press Release: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Proposes Delisting 23 Species from Endangered Species Act Due to Extinction
Cited by
Still being checked.
- Authors
- Eberhard, E. K., Wilcove, D. S., & Dobson, A. P.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- Princeton University (US)
- Santa Fe Institute (US)
- Corresponding author
- Eberhard, Erich K.
- Venue
- PLOS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2022-10-12
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- e0275322
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9555635
- OpenAlex
- W4304757921
- Semantic Scholar
- e60c9e91244cc839cfee4f7fb25a4e8647adaac9
- Cited by
- 30
- References
- 11
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 2
- FWCI
- 4.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Conservation, Ecology, Wildlife Education
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Wildlife Conservation and Criminology Analyses
- Social Sciences › Law › Environmental law and policy
- Keywords
- Endangered Species Act, endangered species recovery, conservation concern species, conservation funding, biodiversity policy, imperiled species
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Conservation of Natural Resources, Population Density, Biodiversity, Endangered Species
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