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Prevalence, Incidence, and Lifetime Risk for the Development of COPD in the Elderly
Abstract
Background COPD is a major cause of chronic morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Although the prevalence of COPD is already well documented, there are only few studies regarding the incidence of COPD.Methods In a prospective population-based cohort study among subjects aged >or= 55 years, COPD was diagnosed with an algorithm based on the validation of hospital discharge letters, files from the general practitioner, and spirometry reports.Results In this study cohort of 7,983 participants, 648 cases were identified with incident COPD after a median follow-up time of 11 years (interquartile range, 7.8 years). This resulted in an overall incidence rate (IR) of 9.2/1,000 person-years (PY) [95% confidence interval (CI), 8.5 to 10.0]. The IR of COPD was higher among men (14.4/1,000 PY; 95% CI, 13.0 to 16.0) than among women (6.2/1,000 PY; 95% CI, 5.5 to 7.0), and higher in smokers than in never-smokers (12.8/1,000 PY; 95% CI, 11.7 to 13.9 and 3.9/1,000 PY; 95% CI, 3.2 to 4.7, respectively). Remarkable was the high incidence in the youngest female age category of 55 to 59 years (7.4/1,000 PY; 95% CI, 4.1 to 12.6). For a 55-year-old man and woman still free of COPD at cohort entry, the risk for the development of COPD over the coming 40 years was 24% and 16%, respectively.Conclusion The overall incidence of COPD in an elderly population is 9.2/1,000 PY, with a remarkably high incidence in the youngest women, suggesting a further shift toward the female sex in the gender distribution of COPD. During their further lives, one of four men and one of six women free of COPD at the age of 55 years will have COPD develop.
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“Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) are common in patients with severe and very severe COPD and are characterized by increased dyspnea, purulence, and augmented sputum volume (86, 137).”
From Aging and Lung Disease (2020) · cites this paper as [137]
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Metadata
- Authors
- van Durme, Y. M. T. A., Verhamme, K. M. C., Stijnen, T., van Rooij, F. J. A., Van Pottelberge, G. R., Hofman, A., Joos, G. F., Stricker, B. H. C., & Brusselle, G. G.
- Affiliations
- Erasmus MC (NL)
- Leiden University Medical Center (NL)
- Ghent University Hospital (BE)
- Corresponding author
- Stricker, Bruno H.Ch.
- Venue
- Chest
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2009-02
- Volume
- 135
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 368-377
- ISSN
- 0012-3692 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2142080101
- Cited by
- 151
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 12.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- CHEST Journal (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Ghent University Academic Bibliography (Ghent University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Asthma and respiratory diseases
- Keywords
- chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD incidence, COPD prevalence, lifetime risk, older adults, sex differences, smoking, hospital discharge letters, general practitioner records, oldest old
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Netherlands, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Severity of Illness Index, Smoking, Spirometry, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Prevalence, Confidence Intervals, Chi-Square Distribution, Proportional Hazards Models, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution, Disease Progression, Risk Assessment, Statistics, Nonparametric, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive
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