Cited by 151Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) ResearchSmoking Behavior and CessationAsthma and respiratory diseases

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Prevalence, Incidence, and Lifetime Risk for the Development of COPD in the Elderly

van Durme, Yannick M.T.A., Verhamme, Katia M.C., Stijnen, Theo, van Rooij, Frank J.A., Van Pottelberge, Geert R., Hofman, Albert, Joos, Guy F., Stricker, Bruno H.Ch., Brusselle, Guy G.·2009·Chest

DOI 10.1378/chest.08-0684

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Abstract

Background COPD is a major cause of chronic morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Although the prevalence of COPD is already well documented, there are only few studies regarding the incidence of COPD.Methods In a prospective population-based cohort study among subjects aged >or= 55 years, COPD was diagnosed with an algorithm based on the validation of hospital discharge letters, files from the general practitioner, and spirometry reports.Results In this study cohort of 7,983 participants, 648 cases were identified with incident COPD after a median follow-up time of 11 years (interquartile range, 7.8 years). This resulted in an overall incidence rate (IR) of 9.2/1,000 person-years (PY) [95% confidence interval (CI), 8.5 to 10.0]. The IR of COPD was higher among men (14.4/1,000 PY; 95% CI, 13.0 to 16.0) than among women (6.2/1,000 PY; 95% CI, 5.5 to 7.0), and higher in smokers than in never-smokers (12.8/1,000 PY; 95% CI, 11.7 to 13.9 and 3.9/1,000 PY; 95% CI, 3.2 to 4.7, respectively). Remarkable was the high incidence in the youngest female age category of 55 to 59 years (7.4/1,000 PY; 95% CI, 4.1 to 12.6). For a 55-year-old man and woman still free of COPD at cohort entry, the risk for the development of COPD over the coming 40 years was 24% and 16%, respectively.Conclusion The overall incidence of COPD in an elderly population is 9.2/1,000 PY, with a remarkably high incidence in the youngest women, suggesting a further shift toward the female sex in the gender distribution of COPD. During their further lives, one of four men and one of six women free of COPD at the age of 55 years will have COPD develop.

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Authors: van Durme, Y. M. T. A., Verhamme, K. M. C., Stijnen, T., van Rooij, F. J. A., Van Pottelberge, G. R., Hofman, A., Joos, G. F., Stricker, B. H. C., & Brusselle, G. G.
Affiliations: Erasmus MC (NL)
Leiden University Medical Center (NL)
Ghent University Hospital (BE)
Corresponding author: Stricker, Bruno H.Ch.
ORCID: Verhamme, Katia M.C.
Stijnen, Theo
Joos, Guy F.
Stricker, Bruno H.Ch.
Brusselle, Guy G.
Venue: Chest
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2009-02
Volume: 135
Issue: 2
Pages: 368-377
ISSN: 0012-3692 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1378/chest.08-0684
OpenAlex: W2142080101
Cited by: 151
References: 34
Citations by year: 2026: 2 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 12
FWCI: 12.67
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: CHEST Journal (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion)
EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
Ghent University Academic Bibliography (Ghent University) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Research
Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Asthma and respiratory diseases
Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD incidence, COPD prevalence, lifetime risk, older adults, sex differences, smoking, hospital discharge letters, general practitioner records, oldest old
MeSH terms: Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Netherlands, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Severity of Illness Index, Smoking, Spirometry, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Prevalence, Confidence Intervals, Chi-Square Distribution, Proportional Hazards Models, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution, Disease Progression, Risk Assessment, Statistics, Nonparametric, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive

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Prevalence, Incidence, and Lifetime Risk for the Development of COPD in the Elderly

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