Determinants of crime rates in Latin America and the world: An empirical assessment

Abstract

No AccessWorld Bank Latin American and Caribbean Studies1 Feb 2013Determinants of crime rates in Latin America and the worldAn empirical assessmentAuthors/Editors: Pablo Fajnzylber, Daniel Lederman, Norman LoayzaPablo Fajnzylber, Daniel Lederman, Norman Loayzahttps://doi.org/10.1596/0-8213-4240-1SectionsAboutPDF (0.4 MB) ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareFacebookTwitterLinked In Abstract:This study uses a new data set of crime rates for a large sample of countries for the period 1970-1994, based on information from the United Nations World Crime Surveys, to analyze the determinants of national homicide and robbery rates. A simple model of the incentives to commit crime is proposed, which explicitly considers possible causes of the persistence of crime over time (criminal inertia). Several econometric models are estimated, attempting to capture the determinants of crime rates across countries and over time. The empirical models are first run for cross-sections and then applied to panel data. The former focus on explanatory variables that do not change markedly over time, while the panel data techniques consider both the effect of the business cycle (i.e., GDP growth rate) on the crime rate and criminal inertia (accounted for by the inclusion of the lagged crime rate as an explanatory variable). The panel data techniques also consider country-specific effects, the joint endogeneity of some of the explanatory variables, and the existence of some types of measurement errors afflicting the crime data. The results show that increases in income inequality raise crime rates, deterrence effects are significant, crime tends to be counter-cyclical, and criminal inertia is significant even after controlling for other potential determinants of homicide and robbery rates. Previous bookNext book FiguresReferencesRecommendedDetailsCited ByInterpersonal Violence in Chile, c. 1880s–2010s: A Tale of Delayed but Successful ConvergenceSocial Science History, Vol.2016 February 2022Macrocriminology and Freedom15 February 2022Homicide prevention programmes in Latin America and the CaribbeanInternational Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice, Vol.11614 November 2021Uma discussão sobre a substituição da economia do crimeRevista Científica Multidisciplinar Núcleo do Conhecimento28 September 2021Regional convergence, spatial scale, and spatial dependence: Evidence from homicides and personal injuries in Colombia 2010–2018Regional Science Policy & Practice, Vol.13, No.43 November 2020The stabilization role of police spending in a neo‐Keynesian economy with credit market imperfectionsScottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol.68, No.112 July 2020Persistente Gewalt – Eine quantitative Analyse vergangener Gewalt in der Gegenwart4 March 2021ICTS, Digital Enterprise Transformation, and Banking Sector in PakistanExporting Murder: US Deportations and the Spread of ViolenceInternational Studies Quarterly, Vol.64, No.22 March 2020Efecto de la actividad económica sobre la violencia homicida: Nueva evidencia a partir de datos de panel en ColombiaCuadernos de Economía, Vol.39, No.791 January 2020The Human Cost of the Weapons Trade: Small Arms Transfers and Recipient State HomicideJournal of Global Security Studies, Vol.3018 October 2019La relación entre robo y desempleo de varones jóvenes en México, 2005-2017Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas, Vol.14, No.31 July 2019Pirates – The Young and the Jobless: The Effect of Youth Bulges and Youth Labor Market Integration on Maritime PiracyDefence and Peace Economics, Vol.30, No.31 June 2017Federal Distributive Politics and the Unequal Distribution of Violence: Argentine Provinces in Comparative PerspectiveJournal of Politics in Latin America, Vol.11, No.113 June 2019Intangible Benefits of Self-Help Micro-Credit in Conflict Mitigation and Peace BuildingArmed Conflict and Fertility in Colombia, 2000–2010Population Research and Policy Review, Vol.171 September 2018War is not healthy. Political violence and infant health outcomes in ColombiaRevista de Salud Pública, Vol.20, No.31 May 2018Explaining Income Inequalities: A Cross Sectional-Study of OECD CountriesSSRN Electronic JournalDrivers of Homicide in Latin America and the Caribbean17 March 2017The Homicide Atlas in Colombia: Contagion and Under-Registration for Small AreasCuadernos de Geografía: Revista Colombiana de Geografía, Vol.26, No.11 January 2017Brazil21 December 2016A hierarchical SLX model application to violent crime in MexicoThe Annals of Regional Science, Vol.58, No.120 September 2016How to Explain and How Not to Explain Contemporary Criminal Violence in Central America25 December 2016Determinants of unemployment spells and exit destinations in Romania in a competing-risks approachEconomic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Vol.30, No.110 May 2017Estimating the impact of Mexican drug cartels and drug-related homicides on crime and perceptions of safetyJournal of Economic Geography, Vol.16, No.426 Jun