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Predicting Elections with Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal about Political Sentiment

Open access
Tumasjan, Andranik, Sprenger, Timm, Sandner, Philipp, Welpe, Isabell·2010·Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media

Abstract

Twitter is a microblogging website where users read and write millions of short messages on a variety of topics every day. This study uses the context of the German federal election to investigate whether Twitter is used as a forum for political deliberation and whether online messages on Twitter validly mirror offline political sentiment. Using LIWC text analysis software, we conducted a content-analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician. Our results show that Twitter is indeed used extensively for political deliberation. We find that the mere number of messages mentioning a party reflects the election result. Moreover, joint mentions of two parties are in line with real world political ties and coalitions. An analysis of the tweets’ political sentiment demonstrates close correspondence to the parties' and politicians’ political positions indicating that the content of Twitter messages plausibly reflects the offline political landscape. We discuss the use of microblogging message content as a valid indicator of political sentiment and derive suggestions for further research.

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Metadata

Authors
Tumasjan, A., Sprenger, T., Sandner, P., & Welpe, I.
Venue
Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media
Published
2010-05-16
Volume
4
Issue
1
Pages
178-185
ISSN
  • 2162-3449 (ISSN-L)
  • 2334-0770
OpenAlex
W1590495275
Cited by
2,649
References
4
FWCI
186.05
Type
conference paper
Language
en
Open access
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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Predicting Elections with Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal about Political Sentiment. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1609/icwsm.v4i1.14009
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Tumasjan, A., Sprenger, T., Sandner, P., & Welpe, I. (2010). Predicting Elections with Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal about Political Sentiment. Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media. https://doi.org/10.1609/icwsm.v4i1.14009

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