Second-Round Effects of Oil Prices on Inflation in the Advanced Foreign Economies
Open accessAbstract
The surge in oil prices in the wake of the post-COVID-19 economic rebound and Russia's invasion of Ukraine exerted significant upward pressure on consumer price inflation around the world. As seen in the left panel of Figure 1, Brent crude oil prices soared to nearly $130 a barrel in March 2022 and remained elevated through June, before only slowly retracing the gains.
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Alp, Klepacz, & Saxena (2023) found that global consumer price inflation was significantly pushed upward by the spike in oil prices following the post-COVID-19 economic ramifications and the Russian seizure of Ukraine.
“It was also acknowledged by Harun Alp, Matthew Klepacz, and AkhilSaxena (2023) that the global consumer price inflation was significantly pushed upward by the spike in oil prices following the post-COVID-19 economic ramifications and the Russian seizure of Ukraine.”
From Devaluation, Oil Price Shock and Consumer Price Inflation: Evidence from Markov Autoregressive Regime Switching Model (2025) · cites this paper as Alp, Klepacz, & Saxena (2023)
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Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Baumeister, Christiane, and James D. Hamilton. 2019. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks." American Economic Review, 109 (5): 1873-1910.
- Choi, Sangyup, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Saurab Mishra, and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro. 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies." Journal of International Money and Finance, 82: 71-96.
- Kilian, Lutz. 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market." American Economic Review, 99 (3): 1053-69.
Cited by
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Umoru, D., Umar, S. S., & Igbinovia, B. (2025) · The Romanian Economic Journal · doi:10.24818/rej/2025/90/05
- Authors
- Alp, H., Klepacz, M., & Saxena, A.
- Affiliations
- Federal Reserve (US)
- Venue
- FEDS Notes
- Published
- 2023-12
- Issue
- 2023-12-15-1
- Pages
- None-None
- ISSN
- 2380-7172 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4390535757
- Cited by
- 11
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 3
- FWCI
- 2.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- FEDS Notes (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Keywords
- oil prices, inflation, second-round effects, Brent crude oil, Russian invasion of Ukraine, COVID-19 economic recovery, developed countries, consumer price inflation, energy prices
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