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Cited by 1Market Dynamics and Volatility

Devaluation, Oil Price Shock and Consumer Price Inflation: Evidence from Markov Autoregressive Regime Switching Model

Open access
Umoru, David, Umar, Salisu Shehu, Igbinovia, Beauty·2025·The Romanian Economic Journal
DOI 10.24818/rej/2025/90/05
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Abstract

The study uses a Markov autoregressive regime-switching model on monthly data from 2000Q1 to 2024Q2 for eleven SSA emerging countries, with implications for Nigeria.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.24818/rej/2025/90/05

Cites

0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

5 of 17 cited sources checked · 3 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Findingnone given

    A key element highlighting the persistence of price volatility is the volatility of the preceding period.

    “First, a key element highlighting the persistence of price volatility is the volatility of the preceding period.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    The volatility of domestic prices is significantly influenced by the differentials between local and foreign interest rates.

    “Third, the volatility of domestic prices is significantly influenced by the differentials between local and foreign interest rates.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    There is a significant causation effect of currency depreciation, oil price surges, and interest rate differentials on the price of food and fuel in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    “The results validate the presence of a significant causation effect of currency depreciation, oil price surges, and interest rate differentials on the price of food and fuel in SSA.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    Food and fuel price volatility is influenced by international transaction costs.

    “Then, food and fuel price volatility is influenced by international transaction costs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    Food consumption prices in the researched economies are strongly impacted by shocks to oil prices.

    “Food consumption prices and fuel prices in the researched economies are strongly impacted by shocks to oil prices.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 30
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 3
  • May combine two claims. 17

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Okeke, Nwoha, & Duru (2024) found that inflation in Nigeria was considerably exacerbated by the upward variation in the Bent oil price.

    “Our finding of a significant positive connection between food inflation and the Bent oil price shock is additionally supported by the study carried out for Nigeria by Okeke, Nwoha, & Duru (2024), where it was econometrically verified that inflation in Nigeria was considerably exacerbated by the upward variation in the Bent oil price.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Okeke, Nwoha, & Duru (2024) source

      The Interpretation of Results (page unavailable) says an increase in oil prices decreased Nigeria’s inflation rate; the regression table reports a negative oil-price coefficient. It separately finds that greater oil-price volatility increased inflation, but that is not the claimed effect of an upward price movement. The paper’s own result therefore contradicts the attributed finding. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    A rise in global energy costs has a significant and enduring impact on global food prices.

    “Chowdhury, Meo, Uddin, &Haque (2021) reported that a rise in global energy costs has a significant and enduring impact on global food prices.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chowdhury, Meo, Uddin, &Haque (2021) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Olaoye et al. (2023) found an insignificant positive inflation effect of money supply.

    “The positive inflation-money supply association obtained for both regimes across the SSA countries in our sample is corroborated by the findings of Olaoye et al. (2023), who found an insignificant positive inflation effect of money supply.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Olaoye et al. (2023) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Alp, Klepacz, & Saxena (2023) found that global consumer price inflation was significantly pushed upward by the spike in oil prices following the post-COVID-19 economic ramifications and the Russian seizure of Ukraine.

    “It was also acknowledged by Harun Alp, Matthew Klepacz, and AkhilSaxena (2023) that the global consumer price inflation was significantly pushed upward by the spike in oil prices following the post-COVID-19 economic ramifications and the Russian seizure of Ukraine.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Alp, Klepacz, & Saxena (2023) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Egilsson (2020) established that excessive long-lasting interest rate differentials stimulate chronic interaction between inflation and the depreciation of local currencies.

    “Another line of support was found in the study of Egilsson (2020), who established that excessive long-lasting interest rate differentials stimulate chronic interaction between inflation and the depreciation of local currencies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Egilsson (2020) source

      Section 3.2 says a lasting interest rate differential can initiate a cycle of depreciation and inflation. The Conclusion likewise describes these as possible long-run responses, not an inevitable chronic interaction. The claim’s wording, “established” and “stimulate,” overstates that conditional finding. Page numbers are not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Brent crude oil price has a significant positive effect on food/consumer price inflation in both regimes across the eleven SSA countries.

    “Another striking result obtained for both regimes 1 and 2 in all countries is the significant positive nexus between food inflation and Brent crude oil prices.”
    • Also stated in: § Year XXVIII no. 90 · boosted
      “The upward shift in the Brent oil price shock is remarkable in its effect on consumer or food prices.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Currency depreciation has a significant positive effect on consumer price inflation in both regimes across the eleven SSA countries.

    “The results show that for the two different regimes, one more erratic than the other, currency depreciation, oil price changes, and interest rate differentials all considerably caused hikes in food prices.”
    • Also stated in: § Year XXVIII no. 90 · boosted
      “This finding of a positive relation between inflation and depreciation was also obtained by Abdulhamid, Musa, & Rabiu (2022); Victor, Udo, & Abner (2020); and Alieu (2019).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The coefficient of interest rate differences between domestic and foreign interest rates, proxied by the Federal Fund rate, is 0.42156 for food prices and is positive and significant.

    “Another significant variable in the panel GMM system estimators was the coefficient of interest rate differences between domestic and foreign interest rates proxied by the Federal Fund rate.Precisely, the estimated effect is 0.42156 for food prices.This effect is positive and significant”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Currency exchange rate depreciation (lnexcd) had a positive coefficient of 0.18526, which was significant in the model (p > 0.05).

    “Currency exchange rate depreciation (lnexcd) also had a positive coefficient of 0.18526, which was significant in the model (p > 0.05).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    For broad money supply (lnmssp), there was a positive and insignificant coefficient of 0.13097 in the predictive model of domestic fuel prices (p<.05).

    “For broad money supply (lnmssp), there was a positive and insignificant coefficient of 0.13097 in the predictive model of domestic fuel prices (p<.05).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    As found in previous estimations, the effect of money supply proved negligible in the panel GMM system estimation.

    “As found in previous estimations, the effect of money supply proved negligible in the panel GMM system estimation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The panel GMM model was significant, with a significant Wald statistic (p<.05).

    “The Panel GMM model was found to be significant with a significant Wald statistic (p<.05).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The transition probability is significant only for regime 2, indicating high variability events in regime 2 are more likely to occur and persist longer.

    “However, the MARS model indicates that the transition probability is significant only for regime 2, indicating that events of high variability in regime 2 are more likely to occur and persist longer.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The coefficient of duration for the transition parameter for food prices is higher in regime 1 than regime 2 for all countries, indicating regime 1 has a higher chance of survival.

    “The coefficient of duration for the transition parameter for food prices is higher in regime 1 than regime 2 for all countries, indicating that regime 1 has a higher chance of survival.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The one-lag value of fuel price inflation had a coefficient of 0.99 and was significant (p<.05).

    “The results show the one-lag value of fuel price inflation had a coefficient of 0.99 and was found to be significant (p<.05).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Regime 1 is predicted to last for around 43.2 months, while staying in regime 2 is predicted to take roughly 26 months in Nigeria.

    “Likewise, regime 1 is predicted to last for around 43.2 months, while staying in regime 2 is predicted to take roughly 26 months.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The AR(1), AR(2), and AR(3) components are significant autoregressive terms in the model.

    “The AR (1), AR (2), and AR (3) components are significant autoregressive terms in the model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    The magnitude of the inconsequential impact of money supply is positively correlated with food CPI.

    “Though, the magnitude of such an inconsequential impact is positively correlated with the prices of food measured as a food CPI.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The relative magnitudes of the coefficients determine how well monetary policy can manage food inflation in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve.

    “The relative magnitudes of these coefficients determine how well monetary policy can manage food inflation in an NKPC.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: A profit-maximizing monopoly produces the good whose price has to be set.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In emerging nations, there is frequently a strong correlation between food inflation, fuel consumption, and exchange rates.

    “In emerging nations, there is frequently a strong correlation between food inflation, fuel consumption, and exchange rates (Mahmoudinia, 2021).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Mahmoudinia, 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    When the coefficient of price adjustment is zero, inflation develops on its own without regard to monetary policy.

    “In the extreme scenario, when  = 0, inflation develops on its own without regard to monetary policy.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: A profit-maximizing monopoly produces the good whose price has to be set.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Inflation tends to increase as a result of rising real marginal costs as businesses pass on increased costs to their product prices and because businesses raise prices now in anticipation of higher inflation in the future.

    “It suggests that inflation would tend to increase as a result of rising real marginal costs as businesses pass on increased costs to their product prices and because businesses raise prices now in anticipation of higher inflation in the future.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: A profit-maximizing monopoly produces the good whose price has to be set.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The real marginal cost of production is a function of inflation, firm expectations for future inflation, and inflation, as explained by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve.

    “The real marginal cost of production is a function of inflation, firm expectations for future inflation, and inflation, as explained by the NKPC.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Calvo (1983) source
    • cites Blanchard & Gali (2007)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Rondina (2017)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: A profit-maximizing monopoly produces the good whose price has to be set.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The price of oil can influence inflation.

    “According to Köse&Ünal (2021), the price of oil can influence inflation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Köse&Ünal (2021) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The importance of transition probabilities in comprehending food price inflation validates the model's validity.

    “The importance of transition probabilities in comprehending food price inflation validates the model's validity.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The relative size of the factors on past and future inflation determines how costly it is to control inflation.

    “The relative size of the factors on past and future inflation, ys and yf, determines how costly it is to control inflation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: A profit-maximizing monopoly produces the good whose price has to be set.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    There is a domino effect in which excessive depreciation of local currencies causes high consumer price inflation that leads to rising costs of living in the midst of a foreign exchange shortage.

    “The study established the presence of a domino effect, which embraces excessive depreciation of local currencies, causing high consumer price inflation that leads to rising costs of living in the midst of a foreign exchange shortage.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Nguyena, Hoang, & Le (2022) found that the growth rate of money supply increasingly drives the inflation rate in a positive direction in Vietnam between 2015 and 2021.

    “The findings of Nguyena, Hoang, & Le (2022) also revealed that the growth rate of money supply increasingly drives the inflation rate in a positive direction in Vietnam between the periods of 2015 and 2021.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Nguyena, Hoang, & Le (2022)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    Tables 16 and 17 show the findings of the serial correlation test based on the Arellano-bond technique as a diagnostic test for the first differences panel of GMM.

    “Tables 16 and 17 show the findings of the serial correlation test based on the Arellano-bond technique as a diagnostic test for the first differences panel of GMM.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The regime-switching model accounts for dynamics like heteroscedasticity and asymmetry.

    “Besides, the regime-switching model accounts for dynamics like heteroscedasticity and asymmetry.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The nonsignificance of AR(2) confirms that the GMM model is without serial correlation and is therefore adequately estimated.

    “The nonsignificance of AR(2) confirms that the GMM model is without serial correlation and is therefore adequately estimated.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Anyars & Adabor (2023) observed strong evidence of positive non-linear effects of oil price changes on consumers' price inflation.

    “Our findings support the findings of Anyars & Adabor (2023), which employed the NARDL model and observed strong evidence of positive non-linear effects of oil price changes on consumers' price inflation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Anyars & Adabor (2023) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    World Bank (2024) attributes the recent spike in food inflation to rising oil prices.

    “This confirms the report of the World Bank (2024), which attributes the recent spike in food inflation to rising oil prices, which in turn required pandemic control measures that impeded production, hindered the importation of fertilizer products, and consequently resulted in a labor scarcity during sowing cycles.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites World Bank (2024)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Interpretationown data

    A positive difference between local and international policy rates causes food prices to rise within domestic economies, resulting in inflationary pressures in Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa, Morocco, Sierra Leon, Zimbabwe, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Egypt.

    “policy rates of the central monetary authorities causes food prices to rise within the domestic economies, and this results in inflationary pressures in the home economies of Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa, Morocco, Sierra Leon, Zimbabwe, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Egypt.This upholds our findings with the MARSM for both regimes 1 and 2.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    An increase in interest rate increases cost of production and cost of running businesses, leading to increase in price of products, resulting in inflation.

    “An increase in interest rate is tantamount to increasing the cost of production and the cost of running or operating businesses, and the combined effects of these two are an increase in the price of products, which consequently results in inflation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Ayisi (2020) discovered the inflation effects of asymmetric oil price surges and cuts in Ghana.

    “Ayisi (2020) equally discovered the inflation effects of asymmetric oil price surges and cuts in Ghana.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ayisi (2020) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The positive coefficient of interest rate differential signifies domestic interest rate exceeds foreign rate.

    “The positive coefficient of interest rate differential signifies that the domestic interest rate exceeds the foreign rate.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Chen et al. (2020) found that prices of food strongly rise in reaction to rising oil prices manifesting through transport costs in China.

    “According to these authors, the prices of food strongly rise in reaction to rising oil prices manifesting through transport costs in China.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chen et al. (2020) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The significance of the coefficient of depreciation is a pointer to the depreciation of SSA currencies.

    “The significance of the coefficient of depreciation is a pointer to the depreciation of SSA currencies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Regime 1 is designated as the state of low price volatility and regime 2 as the state of high price fluctuation.

    “Hence, we designate regime 1 as the state of low price volatility and regime 2 as the state of high price fluctuation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The result for currency exchange rate depreciation is similar to above in Table 13 and validates previous estimations.

    “The result is similar to the above in Table 13 and hence validates previous estimations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The research estimations and findings are substantially robust and statistically consistent with changes in econometric modeling and specifications from MARSM to panel GMM system regressions.

    “Our research estimations and findings therein are substantially robust and statistically consistent with changes in econometric modeling and specifications (from MARSM to panel GMM system regressions).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The total number of instruments used is 6, which is less than the number of groups or cross-sections and confirms model suitability.

    “The total number of instruments used is 6, which is less than the number of groups or cross-sections and confirms model suitability.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    If the coefficient for delayed inflation is high, then policy decisions may only have a long-term lag before having an impact on food inflation, which is mostly driven by the past.

    “If the coefficient for delayed inflation is high, then policy decisions may only have a long-term lag before having an impact on food inflation, which is mostly driven by the past.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: A profit-maximizing monopoly produces the good whose price has to be set.
44 of 44

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A profit-maximizing monopoly produces the good whose price has to be set.

    “This NKPC paradigm is based on the assumption that a profit-maximizing monopoly produces the good whose price has to be set.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Regime 1 has both strong growth and high volatility and Regime 2 has low growth and low volatility.

    “Regime 1 has both strong growth and high volatility and Regime 2 has low growth and low volatility.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The amount of surplus reserves in emerging nations serves as the primary anchor for their currency rates.

    “It is advisable to take into consideration the established fact that the amount of surplus reserves in emerging nations serves as the primary anchor for their currency rates.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The eleven SSA countries in the sample are representative of developing SSA nations.

    “The eleven SSA countries covered in this study are Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa, Sudan, Sierra Leone, Morocco, Zimbabwe, Kenya, the Congo Democratic Republic, The Gambia, and Egypt.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The World Bank and IMF data are accurate and reliable.

    “The two sources of data were the statistical websites of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The ten sampled countries are representative of Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, or emerging nations for the study's conclusions.

    “estimated the panel GMM model for our panel of ten nations.”
6 of 6

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • The regime volatility labels are reversed

    Major

    The methodology identifies regime 1 as high-volatility and regime 2 as low-volatility. The results section assigns the opposite labels, changing the interpretation of the reported regime effects.

  • The food-interest interval excludes its positive estimate

    Major

    Table 14 reports a positive interest-rate-difference coefficient of 0.42156, while both endpoints of its 95% confidence interval are negative.

  • The food-depreciation interval excludes the positive estimate

    Major

    Table 14 gives a positive exchange-rate coefficient of 1.03649 but an entirely negative 95% confidence interval. That interval excludes the reported estimate and conflicts with the described positive effect.

  • Zimbabwe's reported depreciation effect is ten times its coefficient

    Major

    The discussion gives Zimbabwe's regime-1 depreciation effect as 3.1632%, while Table 9 reports 0.1632 for the current exchange-rate variable.

  • The conclusion gives a different study period

    Major

    The methodology says the data cover 2000Q1 through 2024Q2, whereas the conclusion says the estimation covers 1980 through 2023. These are materially different samples.

  • Nigeria's regime-2 oil effect does not match its table

    Major

    The discussion reports a regime-2 oil effect of 1.8052%, but the corresponding current-oil coefficient in Nigeria's regression table is 1.0052.

  • The sample is counted as both eleven and ten countries

    Minor

    The abstract describes an eleven-country study but later calls the panel a panel of ten nations. The methodology likewise lists eleven countries while calling them ten.

  • The fuel-interest interval excludes the positive estimate

    Minor

    The fuel-CPI table gives an interest-rate-difference coefficient of 0.07493, yet reports a wholly negative 95% confidence interval. The estimate and interval cannot both be correct.

  • The fuel-depreciation interval excludes the positive estimate

    Minor

    Table 15 reports a positive exchange-rate coefficient of 0.18526 and p = 0.003, but its 95% confidence interval is entirely negative. The reported estimate is outside that interval.

  • The fuel-depreciation significance claim reverses its p-value

    Minor

    The prose calls the fuel-CPI exchange-rate coefficient significant while writing p > 0.05. Table 15 instead gives p = 0.003, which is below 0.05.

10 of 10

Cites

The publisher hasn’t deposited this paper’s reference list.

Research works printed but not linked: 15

  1. [9]9. Alieu, B. L. (2019). The impact of exchange rate on inflation: A case study of The Gambia. European Scientific Journal, 15(10). Doi:10.19044/esj.2019. · DOI
  2. [10]10. Alom, F., Ward, B. D., & Hu, B. (2013). Macroeconomic effects of world oil and food price shocks in Asia and Pacific economies: application of SVAR models. OPEC Energy Review, 37(3), 327-372.
  3. [35]35. Gummi, U. M., Lu, S. B., & Mu'azu, A. (2020). The impact of oil price fluctuations on food prices in high and low-income exporting countries. Journal of Agricultural Economics
  4. [44]44. Kutu, A. A., & Ngalawa, H. (2016). Monetary policy shocks and industrial output in BRICS countries. SPOUDAI-Journal of Economics and Business, 66(3), 3-24.
  5. [57]57. Okafor, T., Adegbite, E., & Abiola, B. (2018). Exchange rate fluctuations, inflation and industrial output growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Supply Chain Management, 7(5), 118-128.
  6. [59]59. Olamide, E. G., Ogujiub, K. K., Maredza, A., & Adeleke, O. (2022). Monetary policy and productivity nexus for Africa's oil exporting countries: An econometric analysis. Business Administration and Business Economics, 18(1), 21-42. https://dj.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/AUDOE/article/view/1536
  7. [65]65. Rabee Hamedani, H., & Pedram, M. (2013). Oil price shock and optimal monetary policy in a model of small open oil exporting economy-case of Iran. Journal of money and economy, 8(3), 21-61.
  8. [66]66. Rauff S. A. (2022). Determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria. The colloquium-A Multidisciplinary. Thematc Policy Journal 10 (1), 69-82. http://www.ccsonlinejournals.com Year XXVIII no. 90 June 2025
  9. [68]68. Rudi, L. (2018). The effect of macroeconomic variables on banking stock price index in Indonesia stock exchange. Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 73(1), 155-162.
  10. [71]71. Sani, B., Abdullahi, I. S., Tukur, D. S., Barda, S. I., & Adams, Y. J. (2020). Asymmetric impact of oil price on inflation in Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS), 12(1), 85-113.
  11. [72]72. Selassie A. A. and Kovacs P. (2022). Africa faces new shock as war raises food and fuel costs commodities, April, Senadheera, S. P. Y. W. (2016). Essays on external shocks and monetary policy in the Sri Lankan economy. Unpublished Doctoral Thesis. The Australian National University.
  12. [80]80. Tolepbergen, A. (2022). A study of inflation persistence in Kazakhstan: what has changed? Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/17520 843. 2022. 20770 · DOI
  13. [84]84. Victor I., Udo E. S. &Abner I. P. (2020). Other determinants of inflation in Nigeria. European Journal of sustainable Development 9(10), 338-348.
  14. [85]85. Wong, K..K.S., & Shamsudin, M.N. (2017). Impact of Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rates and Real GDP on Malaysia's Food Price Fluctuations: Symmetric or Asymmetric? International Journal of Economics and Management, 11(1), 259-275.
  15. [90]90. Yusuf, W. A., Isik, A., & Salisu, N. I. (2019). Relative effects of exchange rate and interest rate on Nigeria's economic growth. Journal of Applied Economics and Business, 7(2), 28-37. http://www.aebjournal.org /article070202.php

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Authors
Umoru, D., Umar, S. S., & Igbinovia, B.
Affiliations
  • Edo State University Uzairue (NG)
  • Auchi Polytechnic (NG)
ORCID
Venue
The Romanian Economic Journal
Publisher
Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Published
2025-07-07
Issue
90
ISSN
1454-4296 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.24818/rej/2025/90/05
OpenAlex
W4412068551
Cited by
0
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 1
FWCI
0.00
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • The Romanian Economic Journal (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Topics
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
Keywords
currency devaluation, currency depreciation, oil price shocks, consumer price inflation, food inflation, monetary policy transmission, interest rate differentials, sub-Saharan Africa

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-11.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-11.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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