The DOI matches its Crossref record.
The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems
Open accessAbstract
In the wake of the ERM and Mexican currency crises, the subject of balance-of-payments crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper focuses on the potential links between banking and balance-of-payments crises. We examine these episodes for a large number of countries and find that knowing that there are banking problems helps in predicting balance-of-payments crises, but the converse is not true; financial liberalization usually predates banking crises, indeed, it helps predict them. Rather than a causal relationship from banking to balance-of-payments crises, the macroeconomic "stylized facts" that characterize these episodes point to common causes.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
No references could be resolved yet.
Research works printed but not linked: 36
- Agénor, P., J.S. Bhandari, and R.P. Flood, 1992, Speculative attacks and models of balance-of-payments crises, IMF Staff Papers 39, 357-394. · DOI · Paper page
- Blanco, H. and P.M. Garber, 1986, Recurrent devaluation and speculative attacks on the Mexican peso, Journal of Political Economy 94, 148-166. · doi:10.1086/261366
- Calomiris, C. W., and G. Gorton, 1991, The origins of banking panics: models, facts, and bank regulation, in: G. Hubbard, cd., Financial markets and financial crises, (University of Chicago Press, Chicago), 109-173.
- Calvo, G. A., 1995, Varieties of capital-market crises, University of Maryland Center for International Studies Working Paper. · doi:10.18235/0011612
- Calvo, G. A., L. Leiderman, and C.M. Reinhart, 1993, Capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation: the role of external factors, IMF Staff Papers 40, 108-51. · DOI
- Calvo, G.A. and E. Mendoza, 1996, Reflections on Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold, (University of Maryland, Maryland). · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1996.545
- Diaz-Alejandro, C., 1985, Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash, Journal of Development Economics 19. · DOI · Paper page
- Dornbusch, R., I. Goldfajn, and R. Valdés, 1995, Currency crises and collapses, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, 219-295. · doi:10.2307/2534613
- Edwards, S., 1989, Real exchange rates, devaluation, and adjustment: exchange rate policy in developing countries, (MIT Press, Cambridge).
- Edwards, S., and P.J. Montiel, 1989, Devaluation crises and the macroeconomic consequences of postponed adjustment in developing countries, IMF Staff Papers 36, 875-903. · doi:10.2307/3867243
- Eichengreen, B., A. Rose and C. Wyplosz, 1995, Exchange market mayhem: the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks, (University of California, Berkeley). · DOI · Paper page
- Frankel, J., and A. Rose, 1996, Exchange rate crises in emerging markets, forthcoming in Journal of International Economics.
- Galbis, V., 1993, High real interest rates under financial liberalization: is there a problem?, IMF Working Paper WP/93/7. · DOI
- Gavin, M. and R. Hausman, 1995, The roots of banking crises: the macroeconomic context, (Interamerican Development Bank, Washington, D.C.). · DOI
- Goldfajn, I. and R. Valdés, 1995, Balance-of-payments crises and capital flows: the role of liquidity, (MIT, Cambridge).
- Gorton, G., 1988, Banking panics and business cycles, Oxford Economic Papers 40, 751-781. · DOI · Paper page
- Kaminsky, G. L., and L. Leiderman, 1996, High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: Is it a lack of credibility?, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Working Paper No. 543, March, Washington, D.C. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1996.543
- Krugman, P., 1979, A model of balance-of-payments crises, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 11, 311-325. · DOI · Paper page
- Obstfeld, M., 1994, The logic of currency crises, NBER Working Paper No. 4640. · DOI · Paper page
- Obstfeld, M., 1996, Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features, forthcoming in European Economic Review. · doi:10.3386/w5285
- Rojas-Suarez, L. and S.R. Weisbrod, 1995, Financial fragilities in Latin America: the 1980s and 1990s, IMF Occasional Paper 132. · DOI
- Velasco, A., 1987, Financial and balance-of-payments crises, Journal of Development Economics, 27, 263-283. · DOI
- Marquez, Jaime. "A Century of Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 531, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.531
- de Brouwer, Gordon and Ericsson, Neil R. "Modelling Inflation in Australia." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 530, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.530
- Miller, Marcus and Zhang, Lei. "Hyperinflation and Stabilisation: Cagan Revisited." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 529, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.529
- Stevens, Guy V.G. "On the Inverse of the Covariance Matrix in Portfolio Analysis." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 528, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.528
- Henderson, Dale W. and Zhu, Ning S. "Uncertainty, Instrument Choice, and the Uniqueness of Nash Equilibrium: Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Examples." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 526, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.526
- Freeman, Richard T. and Willis, Jonathan L. "Targeting Inflation in the 1990s: Recent Challenges." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 525, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.525
- Iyigun, Murat F. "Economic Development and Intergenerational Economic Mobility." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 524, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.524
- Iyigun, Murat F. "Human Capital Accumulation, Fertility and Growth: A Re-Analysis." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 523, 1995. · DOI
- Brunner, Allan D. and Simon, David P. "Excess Returns and Risk at the Long End of the Treasury Market: An EGARCH-M Approach." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 522, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.522
- Copelman, Martina and Werner, Alejandro M. "The Money Transmission Mechanism in Mexico." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 521, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.521
- Ammer, John and Brunner, Allan D. "When is Monetary Policy Effective?" International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 520, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.520
- Loungani, Prakash and Sheets, Nathan. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation and Growth in Transition Economies." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 519, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.519
- Edison, Hali J. and Melick, William R. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 518, 1995. · doi:10.17016/ifdp.1995.518
- Ghosal, Vivek and Loungani, Prakash. "Product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment: some evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries." International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 517, 1995. · DOI
Cited by
Asset Prices, Financial and Monetary Stability: Exploring the Nexus
Borio, C. E. V., & Lowe, P. W. (2002) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.846305 · Cited by 1,255
Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment
Bosworth, B. P., Collins, S. M., & Reinhart, C. M. (1999) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.2307/2534664 · Cited by 580
Self-citationFrom Financial Crash to Debt Crisis
Reinhart, C., & Rogoff, K. (2010) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w15795 · Cited by 355
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Kaminsky, G. L., & Reinhart, C. M.
- Venue
- International Finance Discussion Papers
- Published
- 1996-03
- Volume
- 1996.0
- Issue
- 544
- Pages
- 1-28
- ISSN
- 1073-2500 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1549561640
- Cited by
- 950
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 69.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- Licence
- www.usa.gov/publicdomain/label/1.0/ (tdm)
- www.usa.gov/publicdomain/label/1.0/ (vor)
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.17016/ifdp.1996.544
- The paper
- Kaminsky, G. L., & Reinhart, C. M. (1996). The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems. International Finance Discussion Papers. https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.1996.544
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
