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Taking "Pandemic" Seriously: Making the Black Death Global
Open accessAbstract
This essay introduces the inaugural issue of The Medieval Globe, “Pandemic Disease in the Medieval World: Rethinking the Black Death”. It suggests that the history of the pathogen Yersinia pestis, as it has now been reconstructed by molecular biology, allows for an expanded definition of the Second Plague Pandemic. Historiography of the Black Death has hitherto focused on a limited number of vector and host species, and on Western Europe and those parts of the Islamicate world touching the Mediterranean littoral. Biological considerations suggest the value of a broadened framework, one that encompasses an enlarged range of host species and draws on new archeological, genetic, and historical researches to look for the presence of plague in the premodern Indian Ocean basin and East Africa, areas where it has previously not been suspected.
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TL;DR
Monica H. Green argues that historians should abandon scientific agnosticism about plague and incorporate new genetics, phylogenetics, and aDNA evidence into Black Death history. She proposes a broader global narrative that includes animal hosts, the Indian Ocean basin, and sub-Saharan Africa, not just the Mediterranean and Western Europe.
Key findings
- New microbiological work has established that *Yersinia pestis* caused the Black Death; by 2011 the complete genome of *Y. pestis* from fourteenth-century remains had been sequenced, and the fourteenth-century genome fits a previously postulated branch of the phylogenetic tree.
- Cui et al. (2013) constructed a *Y. pestis* phylogeny from 133 complete genomes; it places a polytomy (“Big Bang”) at c. 1268 CE (95% CI: 1142–1339 CE), immediately before the Black Death, and places the Justinianic strain on Branch 0 between nodes 04 and 05.
- The African strain 1.ANT, found in Central and East Africa, is closely related to the London Black Death strain and is estimated by Cui et al. to have diverged from the main Branch 1 line at c. 1499 CE (95% CI: c. 1377–c. 1650), suggesting a late medieval or early modern history of plague in sub-Saharan Africa.
- The likely geographic origin of *Y. pestis* is the Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau; Green argues this requires revising plague geography to include overland routes into Western Eurasia and southern routes through the Indian Ocean basin.
Methods
- This is a synthetic essay, not a primary genetics or archaeological study; it reviews and interprets recent aDNA, phylogenetics, historical, archaeological, and climate scholarship on plague.
- It uses the phylogenetic tree adapted from Cui et al. (2013), which analyzed 133 complete *Y. pestis* genomes, including two medieval London Black Death samples and 131 modern samples.
- It combines genetics with historical trade evidence, including Indian Ocean commerce, Cairo Genizah documents, Marco Polo on coral and musk, and archaeological evidence for Asian commensal rodents in East Africa.
Limitations
- The paper states that little genetics work has been done on sub-Saharan Africa on a scale comparable to China and Mongolia, making its African speculations “tentative in the extreme.”
- It states that there is currently no paleogenetic work from East Africa and no clear evidence of a trail of human plague from the Tibetan highlands to Indian Ocean ports in the fourteenth or fifteenth centuries.
- It notes that molecular-clock dating is contested and that the “Angola” strain’s provenance is lost; more broadly, the essay is an interpretive synthesis that repeatedly frames its new geographic claims as hypotheses requiring further research.
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“Instead, as discussed below, the archeological evidence now suggests the arrival of rats in East Africa somewhat later.”
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“To date, I know of no evidence-genetic, skeletal, or documentary-that suggests that plague reached either Madagascar or Australia prior to the Third Pandemic radiation at the end of the nine teenth century.”
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“But very little comparable genetics work has yet been done in other areas where plague is enzootic: in India, Southeast Asia, South America, and most parts of Africa.”
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In the paper
“No written evidence has yet been gathered that can push plague's presence in sub-Saharan Africa back definitively before 1877; seeNeerinckx et al. 2010.”
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“As Anna Colet and her colleagues make clear in their study of the communal graves of Tàrrega (2014, in this issue), it is sheer chance that we now have both documentary records and physical evidence for the slaughter of the Jewish community of that town in 1348.”
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- Not matchedcites Colet et al. 2014
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§ Abstract
“by 2011 it was announced that the complete genome of Y. pestis, assembled from fourteenth-century remains, had been sequenced (Bos et al. 2011;Little 2011).”
§ References
“Bos, K. I., V. J. Schuenemann, G. B. Golding, H. A. Burbano, et al. 2011. "A Draft Gen- ome of Yersinia pestis from Victims of the Black Death," Nature 478, no.7370: 506-10”
Cited works that were retracted
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Cited work 10.1371/journal.pone.0045903 · retracted 2024-10-14 · notice 10.1371/journal.pone.0312328 · this paper published 2015
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ten Have, H. (2022) · Advancing global bioethics · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-91491-2_2
Archéologie des épidémies : une recherche pluridisciplinaire d’actualité et en expansion
Brassard, C., Castex, D., & Chouin, G. (2022) · Les Nouvelles de l archéologie · doi:10.4000/nda.14160
Stenseth, N. C., Dong, K., Cui, Y., Slavin, P., Xu, L., Yang, R., & Zhang, C. (2024) · Birkhäuser advances in infectious diseases · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-58831-0_6
Schraer, M. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-77331-0_3
Mukherjee, R. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-96-8540-0_4
Methodological Innovations in Historical Epidemiology
Steere‐Williams, J. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/obo/9780197768709-0065
(2026) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-44-355525-1.00020-5
The history of pandemics and epidemiological modeling
Lazebnik, T. (2026) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-44-355525-1.00007-2
Metadata
- Authors
- Green, M.
- Corresponding author
- Green, Monica
- ORCID
- Green, Monica
- Venue
- The Medieval Globe
- Publisher
- Arc Humanities Press
- Published
- 2015
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 27-61
- ISSN
- 2377-3553 (ISSN-L)
- 2377-3561
- OpenAlex
- W4238355136
- Cited by
- 95
- References
- 89
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 7
- FWCI
- 13.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- The Medieval Globe (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites research
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › Ottoman and Turkish Studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › Medieval History and Crusades
- Keywords
- Black Death, second plague pandemic, Yersinia pestis, host species, vector species, East Africa, pandemic disease
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-12, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-12 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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