A Close Look into the Calibration of Pre-trained Language Models
Open accessAbstract
Pre-trained language models (PLMs) may fail in giving reliable estimates of their predictive uncertainty.We take a close look into this problem, aiming to answer two questions: (1) Do PLMs learn to become calibrated in the training process?(2) How effective are existing calibration methods?For the first question, we conduct fine-grained control experiments to study the dynamic change in PLMs' calibration performance in training.We consider six factors as control variables, including dataset difficulty, available training samples, training steps, the number of tunable parameters, model scale, and pretraining.We observe a consistent change in calibration performance across six factors.We find that PLMs don't learn to become calibrated in training, evidenced by the continual increase in confidence, no matter whether the predictions are correct or not.We highlight that our finding somewhat contradicts two established conclusions: (a) Larger PLMs are more calibrated; (b) Pretraining improves model calibration.Next, we study the effectiveness of existing calibration methods in mitigating the overconfidence issue.Besides unlearnable calibration methods (e.g., label smoothing), we adapt and extend two recently proposed learnable methods that directly collect data to train models to have reasonable confidence estimations.Experimental results show that learnable methods significantly reduce PLMs' confidence in wrong predictions.The code is available at https://github. com/lifan-yuan/PLMCalibration.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This paper empirically examines whether pre-trained language models (PLMs) become calibrated during training and how well existing calibration methods mitigate overconfidence. It finds that PLMs do not learn to become calibrated—confidence keeps increasing even for wrong predictions—and that learnable calibration methods substantially reduce confidence on wrong predictions compared with unlearnable methods.
Key findings
- PLMs do not learn to become calibrated in training: confidence continually increases whether predictions are correct or not, producing increasing ECE in the over-fitted state and a consistent increase in CErr_neg throughout training.
- The paper reports findings that contradict two established conclusions: larger PLMs are more calibrated, and pretraining improves calibration. It attributes the inconsistency to evaluation dataset difficulty (performance not saturating) and to prior metrics not measuring confidence in wrong predictions.
- Learnable calibration methods significantly reduce confidence in wrong predictions. For T5, E-T5 lowers CErr_neg from 84.12 to 45.84 on MNLI, from 82.05 to 3.40 on Amazon, and from 82.12 to 0.99 on Civil, compared with Vanilla.
- More data and larger model scales for the calibration task both improve calibration performance; an extrinsic predictive model can achieve comparable results to intrinsic methods given the same calibration training data, suggesting the success lies in the learnable attribute of the calibration task rather than PLMs’ self-checking.
Methods
- Fine-grained control experiments with RoBERTa-base and T5-base under prompt-based learning, using SST-2, MNLI, AG-News, and Yahoo; six factors are manipulated: dataset difficulty, available training samples, training steps, number of tunable parameters, model scale, and pretraining.
- Calibration is evaluated with accuracy, average confidence, ECE using equal-mass binning and 100 bins, and application-driven errors CErr_pos = 1 − Conf_pos and CErr_neg = Conf_neg.
- Calibration methods are grouped into unlearnable (Vanilla, temperature scaling, label smoothing, EDA, deep ensemble) and learnable (E-MLP, E-T5, I-Vanilla, I-Iter, I-Simul), tested in in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings using MNLI/HANS/ANLI, Amazon/SST-5/SemEval, and Civil/Hate Speech/Implicit Hate.
Limitations
- The paper states that only empirical results are presented and a theoretical understanding of PLMs calibration is still lacking.
- The paper states an assumption of a large held-out validation set for training the calibration task; in practice, data must be allocated between the main task and the calibration task given limited training samples.
- The text makes evident that the effect of scaling the calibration-task model on OOD calibration is not consistent and is left for future exploration.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 20 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
In the under-fitted state, PLMs' performance and confidence increase at different speeds as they become more fitted on the training distribution.
“In the under-fitted state, PLMs' performance and confidence increase at different speeds when more fitted on the training distribution.”
- Also stated in: § 4.2 Experimental Results · plain
“In this state, PLMs' performance and confidence increase at different speeds when more fitted on the training distribution.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § 4.2 Experimental Results · plain
- Findingown data
PLMs do not learn to become calibrated during training; their confidence continually increases regardless of whether predictions are correct.
“We find that PLMs don't learn to become calibrated in training, evidenced by the continual increase in confidence, no matter whether the predictions are correct or not.”
- Also stated in: § 4.2 Experimental Results · boosted
“we conclude that PLMs don't learn to become calibrated in training, evidenced by the continually increasing confidence in predictions, no matter correct or not, in the fitting process.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § 4.2 Experimental Results · boosted
- Findingcitation
PLMs can be trained to give their uncertainty.
“PLMs can be trained to give their uncertainty.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Lin et al., 2022
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
PLMs' calibration performance under distribution shifts depends on the evaluation datasets chosen.
“PLMs' calibration performance under distribution shifts depends on the evaluation datasets chosen.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
Using an extrinsic predictive model can achieve comparable results, given the same calibration training data.
“We find that using an extrinsic predictive model can achieve comparable results, given the same calibration training data.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
In the over-fitted state, PLMs' confidence continues to increase steadily with little change in performance.
“In the over-fitted state, PLMs' confidence continues to increase steadily with little change in performance.”
- Also stated in: § 4.2 Experimental Results · plain
“However, PLMs' confidence continues to increase in this state, resulting in increasing ECE.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § 4.2 Experimental Results · plain
- Findingown data
Learnable calibration methods significantly reduce PLMs' confidence in wrong predictions.
“Experimental results show that learnable methods significantly reduce PLMs' confidence in wrong predictions.”
- Also stated in: § 5.3 Experimental Results · plain
“learnable ones significantly mitigate the overconfidence issue, reflected in the sharp decrease in CErr neg”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § 5.3 Experimental Results · plain
- Findingown data
Using a larger capacity model as the extrinsic calibrator shows the same trend as shifting from vanilla fine-tuning to learnable methods.
“We find that using the larger capacity model as the extrinsic calibrator shows the same trend with shifting from the vanilla fine-tuning to learnable methods.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
PLMs are significantly less calibrated under considered distribution shifts, especially on challenging datasets due to severe mismatch between performance and confidence.
“However, PLMs are significantly less calibrated under considered distribution shifts, especially on challenging datasets due to the severe mismatch between performance and confidence.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In the over-fitted state, PLMs' confidence continues to increase, resulting in increasing ECE.
“However, PLMs' confidence continues to increase in this state, resulting in increasing ECE.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For ID samples, increasing the calibration dataset size causes a sharp decrease in CErr_neg with relatively less negative influence on ECE and CErr_pos.
“For ID samples, we can observe a sharp decrease in CErr neg with relatively less negative influence on ECE and CErr pos”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For OOD samples, CErr_pos and ECE increase significantly along with increasing the dataset size.
“For OOD samples, the CErr pos and ECE increase significantly along with increasing the dataset size.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There is a sharp difference in calibration performance when increasing the dataset size from small to middle.
“we observe that there is a sharp difference in calibration performance when increasing the dataset size from small to middle.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
For ID samples, scaling larger causes a consistent decrease in CErr_pos with neglectable influence on ECE and CErr_neg.
“for ID samples, we observe a consistent decrease in CErr pos with neglectable influence on ECE and CErr neg when scaling larger.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
The trend in calibration performance when increasing dataset size from small to middle is overall consistent with the trend observed when shifting from vanilla fine-tuning to learnable calibration methods.
“The trend is overall consistent with the one observed when shifting from vanilla fine-tuning to learnable calibration methods.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The extended E-T5 exhibits significantly better calibration performance than the adapted E-MLP in mitigating the overconfidence issue.
“the extended E-T5 exhibits significantly better calibration performance compared to the adapted E-MLP considering the mitigation of the overconfidence issue.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
All calibration methods have negligible influence on PLMs' performance in ID and OOD settings except I-Vanilla.
“All calibration methods have negligible influence on PLMs' performance in the ID and OOD settings except I-Vanilla.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
ECE decreases when larger capacity brings substantial improvement to PLMs' performance (e.g., T5 on SST-2 and MNLI).
“We observe that ECE decreases when larger capacity brings substantial improvement to PLMs' performance (e.g., T5 on SST-2 and MNLI).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The five learnable methods still show a consistent trend when scaling larger.
“The five learnable methods still show a consistent trend when scaling larger”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
When performance reaches a plateau value, increasing capacity only boosts PLMs' confidence (e.g., T5 and RoBERTa on Yahoo).
“However, when the performance reaches a plateau value, increasing capacity only boosts PLMs' confidence (e.g., T5 and RoBERTa on Yahoo).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The size of datasets for training the calibration task doesn't have a substantial influence on PLMs performance on the main task.
“The size of datasets for training the calibration task doesn't have a substantial influence on PLMs performance on the main task.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
When the PLM's scale keeps increasing after performance plateaus, ECE increases.
“In this case, the ECE increases when the PLM's scale keeps increasing.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The continual learning paradigm (I-Vanilla) may result in degraded performance in the main task.
“However, this continual learning paradigm may result in degraded performance in the main task according to our results.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The five learnable methods show a consistent trend when increasing the dataset size.
“The five learnable methods show a consistent trend when increasing the dataset size, indicating that the essence of these methods is the same”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
In the over-fitted state, PLMs' performance doesn't have a substantial difference due to their generalization ability.
“In this state, PLMs' performance doesn't have a substantial difference due to their generalization ability (Zhang et al., 2021a).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Zhang et al., 2021a
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- Findingreasoning
CErr neg consistently increases throughout the whole training process.
“The consistent increase in CErr neg throughout the whole training process.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
We demonstrate the effectiveness of learnable calibration methods in the ideal situation of having a large held-out validation set as the calibration training dataset.
“We demonstrate the effectiveness of learnable calibration methods in this ideal situation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: We have a large held-out validation set that can be employed as the training dataset for the calibration task.
- Findingreasoning
In the under-fitted state, the ECE score fluctuates.
“The ECE score fluctuates during this process.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
There is no further improvement in calibration performance when increasing the dataset size from middle to large.
“Besides, we don't observe further improvement in calibration performance when increasing the dataset size from middle to large.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
For TS and LS, we observe almost the same amount of increase in CErr pos as the decrease in CErr neg.
“However, we can observe almost the same amount of increase in CErr pos with the decrease in CErr neg .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Increasing capacity makes PLMs more confident.
“where increasing capacity makes PLMs more confident.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
There is a consistent confidence increase when scaling larger.
“We observe a consistent confidence increase when scaling larger, which is similar to the trend observed in Sec. 4, where increasing capacity makes PLMs more confident.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For Soft-prompt tuning, model performance and confidence increase continually with more tunable parameters.
“For Soft-prompt tuning, the model performance and confidence increase continually with more tunable parameters.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
Data augmentation and model ensemble do not bring substantial benefits to PLMs calibration across the three calibration metrics, all evaluation datasets, and two PLMs.
“Data augmentation and model ensemble don't bring substantial benefits to PLMs calibration, considering the three calibration metrics spanning all evaluation datasets and two PLMs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There is no substantial difference between the extrinsic E-T5 method and other intrinsic methods, given the same base architecture (e.g., T5).
“(3) Interestingly, there doesn't exist a substantial difference between the extrinsic E-T5 method and other intrinsic methods, given the same base architecture (e.g., T5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
For OOD samples, there is no consistent trend in calibration performance when scaling larger due to the influence of various factors.
“For OOD samples, we don't observe a consistent trend due to the influence of various factors.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Soft-prompt and Adapter tuning show different trends spanning four datasets.
“Soft-prompt and Adapter tuning show different trends spanning four datasets”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
PLMs are less calibrated under distribution shifts, consistent with previous work.
“In Sec.5.3, we show that PLMs are less calibrated under distribution shifts, consistent with previous work (Desai and Durrett, 2020;Minderer et al., 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Desai and Durrett, 2020
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- cites Minderer et al., 2021
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- Findingreasoning
For Soft-prompt tuning, the negative effect is an increase in CErr_neg due to overconfidence in wrong predictions.
“The negative effect is also the increase in CErr neg due to the overconfidence in wrong predictions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The increase in confidence and ECE in the over-fitted state is especially obvious when more training steps and tunable parameters are introduced.
“This is especially obvious when more training steps and tunable parameters are introduced (see Fig. 3 and Fig. 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The second premise of the original conclusion-that OOD datasets are harder so PLMs cannot achieve good performance-has not always been satisfied.
“The second premise has not always been satisfied, and we show that the relative dataset difficulty significantly influences PLMs' calibration performance on ID and OOD samples.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Relative dataset difficulty significantly influences PLMs' calibration performance on ID and OOD samples.
“we show that the relative dataset difficulty significantly influences PLMs' calibration performance on ID and OOD samples.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Learnable calibration methods produce lower confidence scores on plain text and random tokens compared to unlearnable ones.
“They produce lower confidence scores on plain text and random tokens compared to unlearnable ones.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PLMs have unreasonable high confidence in task-irrelevant inputs, especially when trained on SST-2.
“We show that PLMs have unreasonable high confidence in taskirrelevant inputs, especially when trained on SST-2.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
PLMs are overconfident in their wrong predictions.
“PLMs are overconfident in their wrong predictions, which is supported by our experiments”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The ID training dataset has significant influence on PLMs calibration.
“Comparing the results when trained on SST-2 or Yahoo, we find that the ID training dataset has significant influence on PLMs calibration.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
PLMs exhibit two calibration states during training: under-fitted and over-fitted.
“This results in two states of PLMs considering calibration performance, namely under-fitted and over-fitted states”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The success of the learnable calibration paradigm essentially lies in the learnable attribute of the calibration task, instead of the PLMs' self-checking process.
“Thus, we identify that the success of this paradigm essentially lies in the learnable attribute of the calibration task, instead of the PLMs' self-checking process”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
PLMs' fitness on the training distribution is the decisive factor of their calibration performance.
“which we identify as the decisive factor of PLMs' calibration performance.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The confidence scores of existing deep neural networks cannot serve as reliable estimates of their uncertainty.
“However, the confidence scores (a.k.a, predictive probability) of existing deep neural networks cannot serve as reliable estimates of their uncertainty (Guo et al., 2017)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Guo et al., 2017
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Some of the six factors considered (dataset difficulty, available training samples, training steps, number of tunable parameters, model scale, pretraining) are overlooked in previous empirical studies.
“Some of them are overlooked in previous empirical studies (Snoek et al., 2019;Nixon et al., 2019;Minderer et al., 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Snoek et al., 2019
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- cites Nixon et al., 2019
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- cites Minderer et al., 2021
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- Interpretationreasoning
The lack of substantial performance gains in Adapter tuning is due to the strong capacity of Adapter.
“This is due to the strong capacity of Adapter.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
If provided enough ID samples for the calibration task training, scaling larger enables models to better learn the calibration task, ensuring better calibration performance on ID samples.
“Thus, if provided enough ID samples for the calibration task training, scaling larger enables models to better learn the calibration task, ensuring better calibration performance on ID samples.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The conclusion that PLMs are calibrated on ID data is questionable given our finding that PLMs don't learn to become calibrated.
“However, the conclusion that PLMs are calibrated on ID data (Desai and Durrett, 2020) is questionable given our answer to the first question (see Sec. 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Desai and Durrett, 2020
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
PLMs' calibration performance improves when trained on larger calibration datasets.
“However, given the arguments in Sec.5.3, we identify that PLMs' calibration performance improves when trained on larger calibration datasets.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Blindly increasing model capacity may negatively impact PLMs calibration, especially at the critical point when current capacity is sufficient to solve the task well.
“The implication of experimental results is that blindly increasing model capacity may negatively impact PLMs calibration, especially at the critical point when current capacity is sufficient to solve the task well.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Evaluation of calibration performance may be sensitive to the training paradigm due to the increase of ECE in the over-fitted state.
“In addition, due to the increase of ECE in this state, the evaluation of calibration performance may be sensitive to the training paradigm.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The essential difference between E-T5 and E-MLP mainly lies in the extrinsic model for the calibration task.
“The essential difference mainly lies in the extrinsic model for the calibration task.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Learnable methods essentially teach models to have clearer confidence estimations, instead of roughly reducing confidence like LS.
“indicating that learnable methods essentially teach models to have clearer confidence estimations, instead of roughly reducing the confidence like LS”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The success of the paradigm of training PLMs to give uncertainty by words essentially lies in the learnable attribute of the calibration task, instead of the self-checking process of PLMs.
“We identify that the success of this paradigm essentially lies in the learnable attribute of the calibration task, instead of the self-checking process of PLMs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
High ECE can be partially attributed to PLMs' relatively rapid growth in confidence with performance lagging behind.
“Thus, high ECE can be partially attributed to PLMs' relatively rapid growth in confidence with performance lagging behind.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The pretraining finding shares the same ground with scaling experiments.
“This finding shares the same ground with scaling experiments.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
The essence of the five learnable methods is the same.
“indicating that the essence of these methods is the same”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
These two strategies don't enable PLMs to learn to become calibrated in the training process.
“This indicates that these two strategies don't enable PLMs to learn to become calibrated in the training process.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The influence of scaling larger and pretraining on PLMs calibration is dynamically determined by the relative increase in performance and confidence, which is highly relevant to the chosen evaluation datasets.
“Essentially, the influence of scaling larger and pretraining on PLMs calibration is dynamically determined by the relative increase in performance and confidence, which is highly relevant to the chosen evaluation datasets.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
When using out-of-the-box to tackle OOD samples, the problem of distribution shifts appears in the introduced calibration task.
“Specifically, when using out-of-the-box to tackle OOD samples, the problem of distribution shifts appears in the introduced calibration task.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The low ECE on ID datasets can be attributed to high performance and consistently assigning high confidence scores to predictions.
“The low ECE can be attributed to their high performance on ID datasets and consistently assigning high confidence scores to their predictions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The low confidence and relatively higher CErr pos and ECE on OOD samples may be reasonable.
“Thus, the low confidence and relatively higher CErr pos and ECE on OOD samples may be reasonable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The influence of distribution shifts on PLMs calibration is dependent on the evaluation datasets chosen.
“In summary, the influence of distribution shifts on PLMs calibration is dependent on the evaluation datasets chosen.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
In hard-to-easy shifts, performance and confidence both increase due to the relative simpleness of the OOD samples.
“In hard-to-easy shifts, performance and confidence both increase due to the relative simpleness of the OOD samples.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 29
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 14
- Borderline: one of the tests for a substantial claim is unclear. 1
May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenMore data and larger model scales for the calibration task both play significant positive roles in PLMs' calibration performance.
“More data and larger model scales for the calibration task both play significant positive roles in PLMs' calibration performance”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAll six factors (dataset difficulty, available training samples, training steps, number of tunable parameters, model scale, pretraining) influence PLMs' fitness on the training distribution.
“All six factors influence PLMs' fitness on the training distribution.”
- Also stated in: § 4.2 Experimental Results · plain
“We note that all six factors dynamically influence PLMs' fitness on the training distribution”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § 4.2 Experimental Results · plain
May combine two claims.
FindingreasoningUnlearnable methods take effect by roughly imposing confidence regularization on models' predictions, resulting in almost the same amount of increase in CErr pos as the decrease in CErr neg.
“which take effect by roughly imposing confidence regularization on models' predictions (e.g., label smoothing), resulting in almost the same amount of increase in CErr pos with the decrease in CErr neg .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe conclusion that PLMs exhibit degraded calibration performance under distribution shifts is reversed when the ID datasets are harder and PLMs achieve better performance on OOD datasets.
“We find that this conclusion is reversed when the ID datasets are harder and PLMs achieve better performance on OOD datasets.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataLearnable calibration methods are superior to unlearnable methods in both ID and OOD settings.
“In our experiments, we identify the superiority of learnable methods compared to unlearnable ones, considering both in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) settings.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataLearnable methods maintain a reasonable increase in CErr pos, with consistent correlations between confidence drop and performance under distribution shifts.
“Moreover, learnable methods can maintain a reasonable increase in CErr pos , holding consistent correlations between the drop in confidence and performance under distribution shifts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingcitationTemperature scaling (TS) achieves overall better ECE, maintaining a strong baseline, with label smoothing (LS) being the second effective method in the unlearnable category.
“TS achieves overall better ECE, maintaining a strong baseline method, with LS being the second effective method for the unlearnable category.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningFor ID evaluation, we observe lower ECE, consistent with Desai and Durrett (2020).
“For ID evaluation, we observe lower ECE, consistent with Desai and Durrett (2020).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Desai and Durrett, 2020
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenOur methods (I-Iter and I-Simul) address the degraded performance issue of I-Vanilla and make the main task performance match with vanilla fine-tuning.
“our methods (I-Iter and I-Simul) address the degraded performance issue of I-Vanilla and make the main task performance match with the vanilla fine-tuning”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataT5 has an obvious confidence drop in the early stage of training.
“T5 has an obvious confidence drop in the early stage”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingnone givenThe confidence of RoBERTa seems to continually increase along with the number of available training samples.
“the confidence of RoBERTa seems to con-tinually increase along with the number of available training samples.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor Adapter tuning, overall confidence continues to increase given more capacity, resulting in increasing ECE and CErr_neg, while performance stays constant.
“However, the overall confidence continues to increase given more capacity, resulting in increasing ECE and CErr neg , while the performance stays constant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor intrinsic methods, the three training paradigms do not show substantial differences in calibration performance, and none consistently achieves the best performance on all datasets.
“For intrinsic methods, the three different training paradigms don't show substantial differences considering the calibration performance, and none of them consistently achieves the best performance on all datasets.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe vanilla T5 achieves only 30.53% accuracy on ANLI, but its average confidence is up to 93.77%.
“For example, the vanilla T5 achieves only 30.53% accuracy on ANLI, but its average confidence is up to 93.77%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor Soft-prompt tuning, the increasing rates of performance and confidence are nearly matched, thus decreasing ECE continually.
“We can observe that the increasing rates are nearly matched, thus decreasing ECE continually.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningScaling larger and employing pretraining consistently bring CErr neg higher.
“Scaling larger and employing pretraining consistently bring CErr neg higher.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataA larger increasing rate in performance reduces ECE; a smaller increasing rate increases ECE.
“We observe that a larger (smaller) increasing rate in performance reduces (increases) ECE.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataLearnable methods lower confidence in correct predictions, resulting in increasing CErr pos and ECE.
“But we also observe that learnable methods lower the confidence in correct predictions, resulting in increasing CErr pos and ECE.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataLearnable methods give obviously lower confidence in OOD samples, and the average confidence drop is highly relevant to the performance drop under distribution shifts.
“Learnable methods give obviously lower confidence in OOD samples, and the average confidence drop is highly relevant to the performance drop under distribution shifts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataPretraining only reduces ECE on relatively simpler datasets, like SST-2 and AG-News, but brings negligible benefits on MNLI and Yahoo.
“We find that pretraining only reduces ECE on relative simpler datasets, like SST-2 and AG-News, but bring negligible benefits on MNLI and Yahoo.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAcross all methods, ECE and CErr_pos decrease under hard-to-easy distribution shifts, contradictory to the previous conclusion that PLMs are less calibrated on OOD samples.
“Across all methods, the ECE and CErr pos decrease under the hard-to-easy distribution shifts, contradictory to the previous conclusion that PLMs are less calibrated on OOD samples.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimBorderline on S3 (load-bearing): unclear from the text.
Findingnone givenThe trends in average confidence are different in the two model architectures.
“In this dimension, we additionally find that the trends in average confidence are different in the two model architectures.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe main issue of PLMs calibration is overconfidence in wrong predictions, which cannot be trivially solved by increasing model scale.
“Thus, we find that the main issue of PLMs calibration lies in their overconfidence in wrong predictions, which cannot be trivially solved by increasing the model scale.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe finding that PLMs don't learn to become calibrated contradicts the established conclusions that larger PLMs are more calibrated and pretraining improves model calibration.
“We highlight that our finding somewhat contradicts two established conclusions: (a) Larger PLMs are more calibrated; (b) Pretraining improves model calibration.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationCalibration is essential for out-of-distribution detection, selective prediction, robustness, and pseudolabeling.
“Calibration is essential for out-ofdistribution detection (Hendrycks et al., 2019a), selective prediction (Varshney et al., 2022), robustness (Kumar et al., 2022), and pseudolabeling (Rizve et al., 2021).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Hendrycks et al., 2019a
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Varshney et al., 2022
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- cites Kumar et al., 2022
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningData augmentation and model ensemble fail to relieve overconfidence, resulting in the same CErr neg as vanilla fine-tuning.
“The reason lies in their inability to relieve the overconfident issue, resulting in the same Cerr neg with the vanilla fine-tuning”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationPLMs can be directly trained to output their uncertainty by words.
“PLMs can also be directly trained to output their uncertainty by words (Lin et al., 2022).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Lin et al., 2022
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningWhether scaling the calibration-task model larger improves calibration performance under distribution shifts is determined by many factors (e.g., the dataset difficulty, the overconfidence issue in the calibration task).
“Whether scaling the calibration-task model larger improves calibration performance under distribution shifts is determined by many factors (e.g., the dataset difficulty, the overconfidence issue in the calibration task).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationPrevious work shows that PLMs exhibit degraded calibration performance under distribution shifts.
“Previous work shows that PLMs exhibit degraded calibration performance under distribution shifts (Desai and Durrett, 2020).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Desai and Durrett, 2020
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe conclusion that PLMs calibration degrades under distribution shifts is one-sided and heavily depends on the evaluation datasets chosen.
“We further show the conclusion that PLMs calibration degrades under distribution shifts is one-sided and heavily depends on the evaluation datasets chosen in Appendix E.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe inconsistency between our findings and prior conclusions lies in evaluation metrics: previous work doesn't measure confidence in wrong predictions, overlooking that models become more confident in wrong predictions when scaling larger and employing pretraining.
“Evaluation metrics: previous work doesn't measure the confidence in wrong predictions, overlooking the fact that models are becoming more confident in wrong predictions when scaling larger and employing pretraining.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted).
PremisecitationLarger PLMs show better calibration.
“Larger PLMs show better calibration (Srivastava et al., 2022)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Srivastava et al., 2022
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationPretraining improves model calibration.
“Pretraining improves model calibration (Hendrycks et al., 2019b).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Hendrycks et al., 2019b
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenScaling larger and employing pretraining are both strategies to increase PLMs capacity, making them more fitted on the training distribution.
“Actually, scaling larger and employing pretraining are both strategies to increase PLMs capacity, making them more fitted on the training distribution.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationData augmentation and model ensemble have been empirically proven to improve model calibration.
“Data augmentation (Hendrycks et al., 2020;Wang et al., 2021) and model ensemble (Gal and Ghahramani, 2016;Lakshminarayanan et al., 2017) have also been empirically proven to improve model calibration.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Hendrycks et al., 2020
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Wang et al., 2021
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Gal and Ghahramani, 2016
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningTS and LS directly impose confidence regularization on predictions, which does not make PLMs have clear confidence estimations.
“The reason is that these two methods directly impose confidence regularization on predictions, which don't actually make PLMs have clear confidence estimations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenPLMs' calibration performance degrades under distribution shifts.
“This evaluation setting is expected to test the conclusion that PLMs' calibration performance degrades under distribution shifts.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Premisenone givenWell-calibrated PLMs should give very low confidence and high probability entropy on task-irrelevant inputs.
“Well-calibrated PLMs should give very low confidence and high probability entropy in the task-irrelevant inputs.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataPLMs' relative calibration performance on ID and OOD samples relies on the dataset difficulty, and the conclusion that PLMs are less calibrated under distribution shifts is one-sided.
“The indication is that PLMs' relative calibration performance on ID and OOD samples relies on the dataset difficulty, and the conclusion that PLMs are less calibrated under distribution shifts is onesided.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenThe influence of the ID training dataset on PLMs calibration can be attributed to dataset difficulty.
“Still, this can be attributed to the dataset difficulty.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningEach K was experimented on five times per dataset and the average performance was reported to account for potential variance in the few-shot setting.
“We experiment with each K five times on each dataset and report the average performance due to the potential variance in the fewshot setting.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
A deep understanding of PLMs calibration is lacking.
“and a deep understanding of PLMs calibration is lacking.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Prompt-based learning has superior performance compared to traditional fine-tuning, especially in the few-shot setting.
“We employ the prompt-based learning paradigm (Liu et al., 2021) since its superior performance compared to traditional fine-tuning, especially in the few-shot setting.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
We have a large held-out validation set that can be employed as the training dataset for the calibration task.
“We make an assumption that we have a large held-out validation set that can be employed as the training dataset for the calibration task.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Current findings suggest that LLMs are often overconfident.
“Current findings suggest that LLMs are often overconfident [26, 73, 113], which may give a false impression of their capabilities and exacerbate overreliance [35].”
From "I'm Not Sure, But...": Examining the Impact of Large Language Models' Uncertainty Expression on User Reliance and Trust (2024) · cites this paper as [26]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
ANLI accuracy and confidence do not match the reported T5 results
MajorThe narrative reports 30.53% accuracy and 93.77% confidence for vanilla T5 on ANLI. Table 1 reports 31.31% accuracy and 85.58% confidence for that model and dataset.
“For example, the vanilla T5 achieves only 30.53% accuracy on ANLI, but its average confidence is up to 93.77%.”
“Vanilla 86.50 94.85 8.35 3.47 84.12 55.06 92.36 37.30 5.96 90.30 31.3185.58 54.27 16.22 86.41”
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Re-Examining Calibration: The Case of Question Answering
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Tool Learning with Foundation Models
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Calibration and Correctness of Language Models for Code
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- Authors
- Chen, Y., Yuan, L., Cui, G., Liu, Z., & Ji, H.
- Affiliations
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- Huazhong University of Science and Technology (CN)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Chen, Yangyi
- Venue
- Proceedings of the 61st Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
- Published
- 2023
- Pages
- 1343-1367
- ISSN
- 0736-587X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4385571092
- Cited by
- 22
- References
- 62
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4
- FWCI
- 3.49
- Type
- conference paper
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Proceedings of the conference - Association for Computational Linguistics. Meeting (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- Tsinghua University
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Adversarial Robustness in Machine Learning
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Topic Modeling
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Domain Adaptation and Few-Shot Learning
- Keywords
- pre-trained language models, model calibration, forecast uncertainty, overconfidence, label smoothing, confidence estimation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-07.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-07.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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