Planning for persistence in marine reserves: a question of catastrophic importance
Open accessAbstract
Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by >60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate.
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Protecting high diversity coral reef areas with a high probability of catastrophic disturbances in the near future, including MHWs, may be less favourable in comparison with protecting an area with less biodiversity but a low probability for disturbance.
“protecting high diversity coral reef areas with a high probability of catastrophic disturbances in the near future, including MHWs, may be less favourable in comparison with protecting an area with less biodiversity but a low probability for disturbance (Game et al. 2008).”
From A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves (2016) · cites this paper as Game et al. 2008
The Discussion (page not available) says that, all else equal, protecting reefs at lower risk of catastrophic bleaching is preferable, and that improving persistence can require trade-offs with biodiversity coverage. It does not establish the specific comparison between a high-diversity, high-risk reef and a less-diverse, low-risk reef. The study models bleaching risk through 2100 but does not explicitly assess marine heatwaves as a broader category of disturbance. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Game, E. T., Watts, M. E., Wooldridge, S., & Possingham, H. P.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- The University of Queensland (AU)
- Australian Institute of Marine Science (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Game, Edward T.
- Venue
- Ecological Applications
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2008-04
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 670-680
- ISSN
- 1051-0761 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2160214953
- Cited by
- 163
- References
- 45
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 19
- FWCI
- 14.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Ecological Applications (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- EPubDev Repository (submittedVersion)
- RUNE (Research UNE) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Department of the Environment, Australian Government
- Department of Environment and Water
- Australian Research Council
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Coastal and Marine Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Keywords
- marine reserve design, catastrophic disturbance, coral bleaching, Great Barrier Reef, site selection, climate change adaptation, reserve cost
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Australia, Conservation of Natural Resources, Disasters, Marine Biology, Models, Biological, Oceans and Seas, Organizational Objectives, Planning Techniques, Ecosystem
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