PreprintCited by 19Diabetes Management and ResearchArtificial Intelligence in HealthcareMachine Learning in Healthcare

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Multi-Step ahead Predictive Model for Blood Glucose Concentrations of Type-1 Diabetic Patients

Open access

Preprint — published as 10.1038/s41598-021-03341-5 · Paper page

Abstract

Continuous monitoring of blood glucose (BG) levels is a key aspect of diabetes management. Patients with Type-1 diabetes (T1D) require an effective tool to monitor these levels in order to make appropriate decisions regarding insulin administrationand food intake to keep BG levels in target range. Effectively and accurately predicting future BG levels at multi-time stepsahead benefits a patient with diabetes by helping them decrease the risks of extremes in BG including hypo- and hyperglycemia.In this study, we present a novel multi-component deep learning model BG-Predict that predicts the BG levels in a multi-steplook ahead fashion. The model is evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively on actual blood glucose data for 97 patients.For the prediction horizon (PH) of 30 minutes, the average values for root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), andnormalized mean squared error (NRMSE) are 20.82±4.97 mg/dL, 15.04±3.70 mg/dL, 11.63±2.78 and 0.06±0.01 respectively. When Clarke and Parkes error grid analyses were performedcomparing predicted BG with actual BG, the results showed average percentage of points in Zone A of 83.88±6.84 and 87.44±4.97, respectively. We offer this tool as a mechanism to enhance the predictive capabilities of algorithms for patients with T1D.

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Crossref · 10.21203/rs.3.rs-315127/v1

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Metadata

Authors
Zaidi, S. M. A., Chandola, V., Ibrahim, M., Romanski, B., Mastrandrea, L. D., & Singh, T.
Affiliations
  • University at Buffalo, State University of New York (US)
  • RWTH Aachen University (DE)
Corresponding author
Zaidi, Syed Mohammed Arshad
Venue
Scientific Reports
Published
2021-03-24
Volume
11
Issue
1
Pages
24332-24332
ISSN
2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W4225966252
Cited by
19
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 2
FWCI
2.05
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Research Square (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (1910539, 1537210)
  • Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation International (1-SRA-2019-823-S-B)
  • University at Buffalo
  • Office of Advanced Cyberinfrastructure (OAC 1910539, 1910539)
  • Division of Civil, Mechanical and Manufacturing Innovation (CMMI- 1537210.)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
Keywords
type 1 diabetes, blood glucose prediction, multi-step forecasting, continuous glucose monitoring, deep learning, hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, Clarke error grid, insulin management
MeSH terms
Deep Learning, Algorithms, Blood Glucose, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Humans, Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring, Neural Networks, Computer

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