Place Based Interventions at Scale: The Direct and Spillover Effects of Policing and City Services on Crime
Open accessAbstract
In 2016 the city of Bogotá doubled police patrols and intensified city services on high-crime streets. They did so based on a policy and criminological consensus that such place-based programs not only decrease crime, but also have positive spillovers to nearby streets. To test this, we worked with Bogotá to experiment on an unprecedented scale. They randomly assigned 1,919 streets to either 8 months of doubled police patrols, greater municipal services, both, or neither. Such scale brings econometric challenges. Spatial spillovers in dense networks introduce bias and complicate variance estimation through “fuzzy clustering.” But a design-based approach and randomization inference produce valid hypothesis tests in such settings. In contrast to the consensus, we find intensifying state presence in Bogotá had modest but imprecise direct effects and that such crime displaced nearby, especially property crimes. Confidence intervals suggest we can rule out total reductions in crime of more than 2–3% from the two policies. More promising, however, is suggestive evidence that more state presence led to an 5% fall in homicides and rape citywide. One interpretation is that state presence may more easily deter crimes of passion than calculation, and place-based interventions could be targeted against these incredibly costly and violent crimes.
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Several recent hot spots policing studies have reported null effects, crime increases, and modest crime displacement.
“For instance, several recent hot spots policing studies have reported null effects (Gerell, 2016), crime increases (Phillips, Wheeler, & Kim, 2016), and modest crime displacement (Blattman et al., 2017).”
From Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime (2019) · cites this paper as Blattman et al., 2017
This finding is contrary to arguments made by others that displacement is the likely outcome of place-based interventions.
“This finding is contrary to arguments made by others that displacement is the likely outcome of place‐based interventions (Blattman, Green, Ortega, & Tobón, 2017; Reppetto, 1976).”
From Problem-oriented policing for reducing crime and disorder: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis (2020) · cites this paper as Blattman, Green, Ortega, & Tobón, 2017
In the Bogotá Hot Spots Policing experiment, there were negligible physical improvements noted in the municipal services hot spots.
“negligible physical improvements noted in the municipal services hot spots in the Bogotá Hot Spots Policing experiment (Blattman et al., 2017)”
From Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime (2019) · cites this paper as Blattman et al., 2017
The findings on hot spots policing rarely generating crime displacement and more likely producing a diffusion of crime control benefits into adjacent areas is consistent with findings from prior reviews, but are contrary to arguments made in other works.
“Our findings on hot spots policing rarely generating crime displacement and more likely producing a diffusion of crime control benefits into adjacent areas is consistent with findings from prior reviews (Bowers et al., 2011; Weisburd & Majmundar, 2018), but are contrary to arguments made in other works (Blattman et al., 2017; Reppetto, 1976).”
From Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime (2019) · cites this paper as Blattman et al., 2017
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Hot spots policing and crime reduction: an update of an ongoing systematic review and meta-analysis
Braga, A. A., Turchan, B. S., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-019-09372-3 · Cited by 352 · see citing works
Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime
Braga, A. A., Turchan, B., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019) · Campbell Systematic Reviews: Better Evidence for a Better World · doi:10.1002/cl2.1046 · Cited by 226 · see citing works
Hinkle, J. C., Weisburd, D., Telep, C. W., & Petersen, K. (2020) · Campbell Systematic Reviews: Better Evidence for a Better World · doi:10.1002/cl2.1089 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
Hot spots policing in a high-crime environment: an experimental evaluation in Medellín
Collazos, D., García, E., Mejía, D., Ortega, D., & Tobón, S. (2021) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-019-09390-1 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
“To the best of our knowledge, alongside the Blattman et al. (2018) study in Bogotá and the Sherman et al. (2014) study in Trinidad and Tobago, this is one of the first hot spots policing evaluations in Latin America, and one of the largest by an order of magnitude. To set up this experiment, we first split the street…”
InfluentialSelf-citationBraithwaite, J. (2019) · International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice · doi:10.1080/01924036.2019.1675180 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
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Deterring delinquents with information. Evidence from a randomized poster campaign in Bogotá
Nussio, E., & Céspedes, E. H. N. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0200593 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Weinborn, C., Weisburd, D., Pérez, Á., & Ariel, B. (2026) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-026-09768-y
- Authors
- Blattman, C., Green, D. P., Ortega, D., & Tobon, S.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- CAF – Development Bank of Latin America (US)
- Corresponding author
- Blattman, Christopher
- Venue
- SSRN Electronic Journal
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017
- ISSN
- 1556-5068 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2890076527
- Cited by
- 29
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 7 · 2016: 1
- Type
- posted content
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Keywords
- place-based interventions, police patrol, municipal services, crime displacement, spillover effects, spatial spillover effects, randomization inference, design-based inference, homicide, rape, property crime, state presence, Bogotá, criminal policy
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