The Eurasian Roundabout: Trade Flows Into Russia Through the Caucasus and Central Asia

Abstract

This paper documents a substantial change in regional trade patterns precipitated by the war on Ukraine and the subsequent introduction of trade sanctions on Russia. It provides evidence suggestive of intermediated trade via neighbouring economies being used to circumvent the sanctions. The analysis, based on HS6 product-level data on bilateral monthly exports, shows a sharp drop in direct exports from the EU to Russia following the introduction of sanctions in March 2022. At the same time, an increase in the EU exports to Armenia, Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic (CCA3, all members of Eurasian Customs Union alongside Belarus and Russia) is observed. Both patterns are particularly pronounced for product groups partially or fully subject to the EU sanctions as well as goods that are similar to the sanctioned ones. The drop in EU exports to Russia was around 80 per cent steeper for sanctioned goods than for other products, while exports of sanctioned goods to CCA3 rose by extra 30 per cent relative to those of other goods. The increase in exports of sanctioned goods to CCA3 represents a small fraction of the reduction in their direct exports to Russia but can be large for specific product groups.