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Cited by 37Economics of Agriculture and Food MarketsEconomic Sanctions and International RelationsMarket Dynamics and Volatility

Sanctions and Russian online prices

Open access
Benchimol, Jonathan, Palumbo, Luigi·2024·Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
DOI 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.07.013
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Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.07.013

Cites

114 of 114 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

7 of 24 cited sources checked · 5 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    The adherence between online and offline price levels for multichannel retailers has already been proven across multiple countries.

    “The adherence between online and offline price levels for multichannel retailers has already been proven across multiple countries (Cavallo, 2017(Cavallo, , 2018)).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Cavallo, 2017 source
    • cites Cavallo, 2018 source
  • Study design and conductcitation

    The test proposed by Zhang et al. (2019) finds evidence of cointegration of order two in all series.

    “while the test proposed by Zhang et al. (2019) finds evidence of cointegration of order two in all of them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Zhang et al. (2019) source
  • Findingown data

    The WS-CPI underwent a significant increase in the number of trend change points following Russia's attack on Ukraine and subsequent waves of international sanctions, compared to other periods.

    “Figure 2 shows that the WS-CPI underwent a significant increase in the number of trend change points following Russia's attack on Ukraine and the subsequent waves of international sanctions, compared to other periods.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    International sanctions significantly disrupted Russian price dynamics.

    “We find that international sanctions significantly disrupted Russian price dynamics, with the exchange rate serving as the primary transmission mechanism.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    There is an increasing difference between online and official prices for the jewelry, clocks and watches category.

    “Furthermore, Figure 3 highlights an increasing difference between online and official prices for the”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 58
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 23
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 6

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The DiD analysis uses the Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021) methodology with the doubly-robust method from Sant'Anna and Zhao (2020), allowing for treatment effect heterogeneity and dynamic effects, improving on the standard two-way fixed effects model.

    “We follow the DiD methodology proposed by Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021), using the doubly-robust method from Sant'Anna and Zhao (2020), which allows for treatment effect heterogeneity and dynamic effect, improving on the standard two-way fixed effects model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021) source
    • cites Sant'Anna and Zhao (2020) source

      Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Online prices are flexible and pass through exchange rate movements.

    “Gorodnichenko and Talavera (2017) emphasize the flexibility and pass-through of online prices in response to exchange rate movements.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Gorodnichenko and Talavera (2017) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    There is some evidence that online-only retailers may adjust their pricing faster than offline-only ones in response to exogenous shocks.

    “While there is some evidence that online-only retailers may adjust their pricing faster than offline-only ones in response to exogenous shocks(Gorodnichenko and Talavera, 2017)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Gorodnichenko and Talavera, 2017 source

      The Introduction and “Pass-through and the speed of price adjustment” report faster adjustment of online prices than regular-store prices following exchange-rate movements. That supports the claim’s core comparison, but the paper compares sales channels, not retailers shown to operate exclusively online or exclusively offline. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The Russian economy gradually absorbed the initial impact of sanctions and realigned with the pre-existing WS-CPI trend.

    “Our findings show that the Russian economy has gradually absorbed the initial impact of sanctions and realigned with the pre-existing WS-CPI trend, offering a nuanced perspective on product price and stock-level consequences of this war.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Overall, product availability decreased since the war started, except for major tools and equipment stocks, where an increase occurred a couple of weeks before the war started.

    “Overall, the availability of products decreased since the war started, except with regard to major tools and equipment stocks, where an interesting increase occurred a couple of weeks before the war started.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Following the invasion of Ukraine, fish prices display a significant gap between online and official prices, with an increase in the likelihood of changepoints.

    “However, fish prices display a significant gap between online and official prices following the invasion of Ukraine, with an increase in the likelihood of changepoints.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For jewelry, clocks and watches, WS-CPI over time decreases below pre-war price levels, while official CPI does not.

    “However, in this case, WS-CPI over time decreases below the pre-war price levels, while the official CPI does not.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Table 2 shows a sudden increase in average breakpoint probability in MAPE, MALPE, and differing trends after the start of the war.

    “Table 2 shows the sudden increase in average breakpoint probability in MAPE, MALPE, and differing trends after the start of the war.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, both online and official meat prices increased significantly, with slight differences between them.

    “Figure 3 shows that after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, both online and official meat prices increased significantly, with slight differences between them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In all cases, TY causality tests validate the presence of a causal effect from sanctions to disruptions in the exchange rate and interest rate, and the VAR estimation results are stable with absence of autocorrelation in residuals.

    “In all cases, the test validates the presence of a causal effect from sanctions to disruptions in the exchange rate and interest rate, and the VAR estimation results are stable with the absence of autocorrelation in their residuals.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The excess WS-CPI level is consistently above the excess measured on official data, averaging 2.3% more for each COICOP (1999) category.

    “In our analysis, the excess WS-CPI level is consistently above the excess measured on official data, averaging 2.3% more for each COICOP (1999) category.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Excess WS-CPI peaked at about 18% in April 2022 and then steadily declined to just below 7% in October 2022.

    “We note that excess WS-CPI peaked at about 18% in April 2022.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Financial and trade sanctions cause WS-PSI trend shifts in 15 and 6 COICOP (1999) categories, respectively.

    “Table 5 shows that financial and trade sanctions cause WS-PSI trend shifts in 15 and 6 COICOP (1999) categories, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Trade and financial sanctions cause excess WS-CPI in 26 and 22 COICOP (1999) categories, respectively.

    “Table 6 shows that trade and financial sanctions cause excess WS-CPI in 26 and 22 COICOP (1999) categories, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Most COICOP (1999) categories show a similar path between excess CPI and WS-CPI, but there are outliers: Spare parts and accessories for personal transport equipment (07.2.1) shows much higher excess in official CPI than in WS-CPI, while Telephone and telefax equipment (08.2.0), Information processing equipment (09.1.2), and Equipment for the reception, recording, and reproduction of sounds and图片s

    “While most categories show a similar path, there are some outliers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    The average price of Champagne is approximately ten times higher than that of Prosecco.

    “However, it is crucial to underscore that the average price of Champagne is approximately ten times higher than that of Prosecco.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between excess official CPI and excess WS-CPI is 0.498 (p-value 0.002), supporting a significant positive relationship.

    “Similarly, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient yielded a value of 0.498 (p-value: 0.002), further supporting this significant and positive relationship.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For most brands, prices denominated in rubles increased noticeably following the start of the war, coinciding with the depreciation of the ruble exchange rate.

    “For most brands, there is a noticeable increase in prices denominated in rubles following the start of the war, which coincides with the depreciation of the ruble exchange rate.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Breaks in interest rates are connected with WS-CPI positive breaks in 19 COICOP (1999) categories, with WS-PSI breaks in 14 categories, and with excess inflation in 16 categories.

    “We can see that breaks in the interest rates are connected with WS-CPI positive breaks in 19 COICOP (1999) categories, with WS-PSI breaks in 14 categories, and with excess inflation in 16 categories.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The WS-PSI for both Champagne and Prosecco increased before the start of the full-scale war, subsequently maintaining a level below historical averages.

    “Concerning product availability, Figure 9 shows that the WS-PSI for both products increased before the start of the full-scale war, subsequently maintaining a level below historical averages.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    In Russia, Barilla prices began to rise immediately after the onset of the war, following the depreciation of the Russian ruble exchange rate.

    “In Russia, prices began to rise immediately after the onset of the war, following the depreciation of the Russian ruble exchange rate.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    TY causality tests confirm that financial and trade sanctions cause upward trend shifts in 28 and 24 COICOP (1999) categories, respectively.

    “Table 4 shows that TY causality tests confirm that financial and trade sanctions cause upward trend shifts in 28 and 24 COICOP (1999) categories, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    The count of distinct individual products and brands witnessed a marked increase between the onset of the full-scale invasion and the imposition of sanctions on champagne, and following this period the count stabilized at a level surpassing historical averages.

    “In contrast, the count of distinct individual products and brands witnessed a marked increase between the onset of the full-scale invasion and the imposition of sanctions on champagne.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Almost all COICOP (1999) categories are composed of a mix of sanctioned and nonsanctioned products, except photographic and cinematographic equipment and optical instruments, where all products were classified as subject to sanctions.

    “Almost all COICOP (1999) categories are composed of a mix of sanctioned and nonsanctioned products, with the exception of photograpic and cinematographic equipment and optical instruments, where all products were classified as subject to sanctions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The average excess CPI calculated on official data is 8.7%, with a value of 5.5% at the end of September 2022.

    “In comparison, the average excess CPI calculated on official data is only 8.7%, with a value of 5.5% at the end of September 2022.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    The three top foreign countries for brand origin are Italy, Germany, and China.

    “The three top foreign countries for brand origin are Italy, Germany, and China.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Price growth for domestic brands was substantially lower, with the exception of nonsanctioned products in the Small electric household appliances category, which presented WS-CPI growth roughly in line with imported products.

    “Price growth for domestic brands was substantially lower, with the exception of nonsanctioned products in the Small electric household appliances category, which presented a WS-CPI growth roughly in line with imported products.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The interest rate also appears to play a significant role in the transmission, albeit marginally less relevant than the exchange rate.

    “The interest rate also appears to play a significant role in this transmission, albeit marginally less relevant than the exchange rate.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The patterns of the different indices are substantially coherent, and the index calculated with the TPD formula seems to better approximate official data.

    “patterns of the different indices are substantially coherent, and the index calculated with the TPD formula seems to better approximate official data.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Waves of economic sanctions against Russia effectively disrupted the WS-CPI pattern for a large number of COICOP (1999) categories, effectively increasing the level of consumer prices above the previous long-term trend.

    “Secondly, we highlight that waves of economic sanctions against Russia effectively disrupted the WS-CPI pattern for a large number of COICOP (1999) categories, effectively increasing the level of consumer prices above the previous long-term trend.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The single large retail chain's online prices are representative of overall Russian consumer prices.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    RWS-CPI adheres less to the official CPI, with MAPE and MALPE less than +/-5% in 15 and 20 cases, respectively.

    “The RWS-CPI somehow adheres less to the official CPI, with MAPE and MALPE less than +/-5% in 15 and 20 cases, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    MAPE and MALPE compared to the WS-CPI are less than +/-5% in 30 and 31 cases, respectively.

    “MAPE and MALPE compared to the WS-CPI are less than +/-5% in 30 and 31 cases, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The exchange rate was strongly affected in the initial phase but gradually returned to pre-war levels.

    “The exchange rate was strongly affected in the initial phase but gradually returned to pre-war levels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The time series are relatively short (only 20 months) and contain missing values and several regime shifts.

    “Second, our time series are relatively short (only 20 months) and contain missing values and several regime shifts.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    A peak in meat and fish product availability appears around the turn of the year and the corresponding holiday period, which corresponds to standard commercial practices in retail.

    “A peak appears around the turn of the year and the corresponding holiday period for meat and fish product availability, which corresponds to standard commercial practices in retail.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Sanctions can disrupt the supply chain, lead to devaluation and increased volatility of the local currency, and increase borrowing costs for the targeted country.

    “They can also disrupt the supply chain, lead to devaluation and increased volatility of the local currency (Wang et al., 2019), and increase borrowing costs for the targeted country.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Wang et al., 2019 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The dataset contains almost 8 million weekly records, aggregated from daily ones, and about 250,000 unique items.

    “In total, we have almost 8 million weekly records, aggregated from the collected daily ones, and about 250,000 unique items.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The web-scraped data were consistent with pre-war official CPI figures.

    “As an initial step, we verified the consistency of our web-scraped data with pre-war official CPI figures, assuming minimal incentive for data manipulation by Russian authorities at that time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There was minimal incentive for data manipulation by Russian authorities before the war.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    In 14 cases, Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency scores above 0.8, confirming satisfactory tracking performance between WS-CPI and official CPI.

    “In 14 cases, the Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency scores above 0.8, confirming the satisfactory tracking performance between WS-CPI and the official CPI.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationcitation

    Examining the dynamics of prices and product availability within the middle-class economic stratum should yield more pertinent insights into a country's economic perspectives.

    “Consequently, examining the dynamics of prices and product availability within this economic stratum should yield more pertinent insights into a country's economic perspectives.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The TiClD index formula is not a general purpose index formula, and its results may reflect the changing mix of products classified in each category because product dummy variables are removed.

    “The TiClD is not a general purpose index formula, and its results may reflect the changing mix of products classified in each category, given the removal of the product dummy variables.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    At a 95% confidence level, in 21 cases tracking accuracy measured by MAPE degrades significantly after the onset of the war, while in 18 cases there is a significant increase in bias measured by MALPE.

    “At a 95% confidence level, we note that in 21 cases, the tracking accuracy, measured by the MAPE, degrades significantly, while in 18 cases, there is a significant increase in bias measured by the MALPE.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    There were two significant data collection breaks caused by website structure updates that caused failures in the web scraping routine: May 27, 2021 to July 12, 2021, and May 26, 2022 to July 24, 2022.

    “There were two significant data collection breaks originating from website structure updates that caused failures in the web scraping routine.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The BEAST model is robust to missing values, can identify an unknown number of trend changes, and provides an estimated probability of trend change for each time point.

    “This model, which has primarily been employed in the field of geographical sciences, demonstrates a high degree of resilience towards missing values, can identify an unknown number of trend changes, and provides an estimated probability of trend change for each time point.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Zhao et al. (2019) source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The increase in stock of major tools and equipment seems not related to prices, as prices declined from March to April 2022 along with the decrease in stocks.

    “The increase in stock also seems not related to prices (Figure 3), as prices declined from March to April 2022, along with the decrease in stocks (Figure 4).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Utilizing granular online data allows circumventing potential misreporting and tracking real-time economic indicators at high frequency.

    “Utilizing granular online data allows us to circumvent potential misreporting and track real-time economic indicators at high frequency.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    In 20 and 30 cases out of 37, the correlation between official CPI and WS-CPI is above 90% and 70%, respectively.

    “In 20 and 30 cases out of 37 the correlation is above 90% and 70%, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The panel data is unbalanced because different products were added and dropped over time.

    “Our panel data is unbalanced as different products were added and dropped over time.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    Before the war, MAPE was less than 5% for 28 series and MALPE was within 5% for 29 of them; after the war started, only 15 series delivered satisfactory tracking performance according to both metrics.

    “Before the war, the MAPE was less than 5% for 28 series, and the MALPE was within 5% for 29 of them.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The choice of methodology has virtually no impact on the outcomes, and overall the WS-CPI can continue to be considered an excellent tracker of the official CPI.

    “The results confirm that the choice of methodology has virtually no impact on the outcomes and, overall, our WS-CPI can continue to be considered an excellent tracker of the official CPI.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The study used an empirical approach to validate the accuracy of online prices in tracking the official CPI.

    “Following Macias et al. (2023), we employ an empirical approach to validate the accuracy of online prices in tracking the official CPI.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Macias et al. (2023) source

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    In 21 out of 37 cases, overall MAPE is below 5%, indicating good tracking performance, and MALPE is within 5%, indicating absence of relevant bias.

    “In 21 out of 37 cases, overall MAPE is below 5%, which indicates a good tracking performance, and MALPE is within 5%, indicating the absence of relevant bias (Swanson, 2015).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Swanson, 2015

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Russian authorities halted publication of numerous statistical indicators following the invasion and subsequent sanctions, raising concerns among analysts about the reliability of remaining publicly available data.

    “Following the invasion and subsequent sanctions, Russian authorities halted publication of numerous statistical indicators, raising concerns among analysts about the reliability of remaining publicly available data (Starostina, 2022).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Starostina, 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The dimensions included in this study do not cover all possible implications of the sanctions nor all possible causes for disruption in consumer price levels.

    “We added placeholders for unobserved variables for completeness, as we are aware that the dimensions included in this study do not cover all possible implications of the sanctions nor all possible causes for disruption in consumer price levels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Premisecitation

    The middle class is a demographic segment exerting significant influence in shaping the economic and social wellbeing of a nation.

    “As delineated in Banerjee and Duflo (2008), the middle class is a demographic segment exerting significant influence in shaping the economic and social wellbeing of a nation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Banerjee and Duflo (2008) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    A potential explanation for the slow increase is progressive pass-through of higher import cost for subcomponents and materials, while imported final products in the same category experienced a sudden shift towards higher price levels.

    “A potential explanation is a progressive pass-through of higher import cost for subcomponents and materials involved in the production of such products, while imported final products in the same category experienced a sudden shift towards higher price levels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The online price data for Russia is reliable as a source of information for these product categories, corroborating the use of WS-CPI as a relevant tool for monitoring the official CPI and the overall level of consumer prices in Russia.

    “This supports the reliability of our online price data for Russia as a source of information for these product categories, thereby corroborating the use of WS-CPI as a relevant tool for monitoring the official CPI and the overall level of consumer prices in Russia.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The flow of sanctioned goods into Russia continued, potentially involving intermediate trade routes.

    “These findings support the assertion that the flow of sanctioned goods into Russia continued, potentially involving intermediate trade routes (Chupilkin et al., 2023).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chupilkin et al., 2023 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Financial sanctions initially drove up domestic prices in Russia, became less effective over time, and the resulting inflation was gradually absorbed by the economy.

    “For instance, while financial sanctions initially drove up domestic prices in Russia, they became less effective over time, and the resulting inflation was gradually absorbed by the economy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The retailer expanded its product offerings with diverse items and suppliers yet concurrently maintained relatively low inventories for each.

    “This suggests that the retailer expanded its product offerings with diverse items and suppliers yet concurrently maintained relatively low inventories for each.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The change of product mix had a disruptive impact on the TiClD index stability.

    “The change of product mix, as noted in the methodology, had a disruptive impact on the TiClD index stability.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Tampax prices in Italy experienced mild deflation, attributable to the reduction of VAT on tampons implemented in January 2022.

    “Notably, Tampax prices in Italy actually experienced mild deflation, which can be attributed to the reduction of VAT on tampons implemented in January 2022.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Excess official CPI and excess WS-CPI present a significant and substantial correlation both in terms of quantity of impact and identification of the most impacted categories.

    “In summary, we conclude that excess official CPI and excess WS-CPI present a significant and substantial correlation both in terms of quantity of impact and identification of the most impacted categories.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    In Italy, Barilla prices began to increase substantially after the war started, mostly due to the rise in grain prices caused by the conflict.

    “Conversely, in Italy, Barilla prices began to increase substantially after the war started, mostly due to the rise in grain prices caused by the conflict.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Russian firms, having experienced sanctions following the Crimea invasion in 2014, exhibited a degree of preparedness, suggesting a potential mechanism that mitigated the impact of subsequent sanctions.

    “Huynh et al. (2022) show that Russian firms, having experienced sanctions following the Crimea invasion in 2014, exhibited a degree of preparedness, suggesting a potential mechanism that mitigated the impact of subsequent sanctions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Huynh et al. (2022)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Economic sanctions have a significant impact on pricing dynamics and the exchange rate.

    “Our findings highlight the significant impact of economic sanctions on pricing dynamics and the exchange rate.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The economic modeling exercise presents a simplified representation of reality.

    “Our economic modeling exercise presents a simplified representation of reality, and the data we used come from only a single large retail chain.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Imposing sanctions can increase import costs, disrupt supply chains, and create inflationary pressures.

    “Imposing sanctions can increase import costs, disrupt supply chains, and create inflationary pressures.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    There are multiple transmission channels that the study is unable to control for.

    “There are multiple transmission channels that we are unable to control for, as is common in macroeconomic analysis.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The causality established through the Toda-Yamamoto test pertains to the concept of Granger causality, implying predictability rather than a conclusive causal relationship.

    “The causality established through the Toda-Yamamoto test pertains to the concept of Granger causality, thus implying predictability rather than a conclusive causal relationship.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). The quote only partly states this claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The authors calculated the CPI using a procedure that resembles the Rosstat methodology.

    “We calculated the CPI using a procedure that resembles the one described above.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Rosstat performs price data collection for the CPI in Russia once per month, between the 21st and 25th day of the month, on a selected basket of products and services.
    • Rests on an assumption: Prices are collected in 282 cities, involving over 86,000 retail and services organizations.
    • Rests on an assumption: CPI for elementary aggregates is calculated using a unweighted Jevons index formula, and then aggregated using a weighted Laspeyres index formula which takes into account the expenditure shares as weights.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The complementary micro-level analysis corroborates the findings.

    “However, the complementary micro-level analysis corroborates our findings.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
72 of 72

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Russian authorities have an incentive to manipulate data that opponents might use to inform further sanctions, with this incentive increasing for more critical economic indicators.

    “It seems reasonable to assume that Russian authorities have an incentive to manipulate data that opponents might use to inform further sanctions, with this incentive increasing for more critical economic indicators (Campbell, 1979).”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    There was minimal incentive for data manipulation by Russian authorities before the war.

    “As an initial step, we verified the consistency of our web-scraped data with pre-war official CPI figures, assuming minimal incentive for data manipulation by Russian authorities at that time.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Sanctions have a punitive aim toward the targeted country, and that aim may only be achieved with an increase in its domestic price level.

    “We only selected positive structural breaks for WS-CPI, as the sanctions have a punitive aim toward the targeted country, and that may only be achieved with an increase in its domestic price level.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Sanctions can increase import costs, reduce product availability, and create inflationary pressures.

    “Sanctions can increase import costs, reduce product availability, and create inflationary pressures.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    On March 15, 2022, sanctions were imposed specifically on Champagne, leading to a ban on its export to Russia.

    “On March 15, 2022, sanctions were imposed specifically on Champagne, leading to a ban on its export to Russia.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Other sparkling wines, such as Prosecco, remained unaffected by these sanctions.

    “In contrast, other sparkling wines, such as Prosecco, remained unaffected by these sanctions.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Champagne and Prosecco originate in the Euro area and are subject to similar impacts from currency fluctuations.

    “Additionally, both products originate in the Euro area, subjecting them to similar impacts from currency fluctuations.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Many countries imposed trade sanctions on Russia, but significant exceptions like China, India, and Turkey remained.

    “While many countries imposed trade sanctions on Russia, significant exceptions like China, India, and Turkey remained.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Only certain goods or categories of goods faced export bans.

    “Additionally, only certain goods or categories of goods faced export bans.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The methodology used by Rosstat for official CPI involves collecting data on a single day each month, between the 21st and 25th.

    “the methodology used by Rosstat for the official CPI involves collecting data on a single day each month, between the 21st and the 25th.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Italian and Russian CPIs experienced widely different trends in the recent past.

    “as the Italian and Russian CPIs experienced widely different trends in the recent past.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The single large retail chain's online prices are representative of overall Russian consumer prices.

    “the data we used come from only a single large retail chain”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Not all product categories have the same impact on a targeted country's welfare.

    “Granular information on the effects of sanctions across different product categories is critical because not all categories have the same impact on a targeted country's welfare.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Rosstat performs price data collection for the CPI in Russia once per month, between the 21st and 25th day of the month, on a selected basket of products and services.

    “Rosstat performs price data collection for the CPI in Russia once per month, between the 21st and 25th day of the month, on a selected basket of products and services.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Prices are collected in 282 cities, involving over 86,000 retail and services organizations.

    “Prices are collected in 282 cities, involving over 86,000 retail and services organizations.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    CPI for elementary aggregates is calculated using a unweighted Jevons index formula, and then aggregated using a weighted Laspeyres index formula which takes into account the expenditure shares as weights.

    “CPI for elementary aggregates is calculated using a unweighted Jevons index formula, and then aggregated using a weighted Laspeyres index formula which takes into account the expenditure shares as weights.”
16 of 16

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

  • Reported gap between online and official excess CPI does not match the averages

    Major

    The stated averages of 11.7% and 8.7% differ by 3.0 percentage points, not 2.3. The reported gap is therefore inconsistent with the two averages presented alongside it.

    Reported 2.3 · recomputed 3

1 of 1

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 4

  1. Aizcorbe, A., Aten, B., 2004. An approach to pooled time and space comparisons. In: SSHRC Conference on Index Number Theory and the Measurement of Prices and Productivity. Vancouver, Canada, pp. 1–19.
  2. Arltová, 2016, Selection of unit root test on the basis of length of the time series and value of AR (1) parameter, Statistika-Stat. Econ. J., 96, 47
  3. Coremberg, 2014, Measuring Argentina’s GDP growth, World Econ., 15, 1
  4. Frey, 2021, Governments manipulate data, World Econ., 22, 1

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Benchimol, J., & Palumbo, L.
Affiliations
  • Bank of Israel (IL)
  • Bank of Italy (IT)
Corresponding author
Palumbo, Luigi
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2024-09
Volume
225
Pages
483-521
ISSN
0167-2681 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.jebo.2024.07.013
OpenAlex
W4401672929
Cited by
37
References
94
Citations by year
2026: 6 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 2
FWCI
13.16
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (publishedVersion)
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Sanctions and International Relations
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
Keywords
economic sanctions, Russian invasion of Ukraine, consumer prices, online prices, price transmission, exchange rates, consumer price index, product availability, trade policy, geopolitical shocks, web scraping, retail market

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-11.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-11.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

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