Nomogram for the Risk of Diabetic Nephropathy or Diabetic Retinopathy Among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Based on Questionnaire and Biochemical Indicators: A Cross-Sectional Study
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PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop a diabetic nephropathy (DN) or diabetic retinopathy (DR) incidence risk nomogram in China's population with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) based on a community-based sample. METHODS: We carried out questionnaire evaluations, physical examinations and biochemical tests among 4219 T2DM patients in Shanghai. According to the incidence of DN and DR, 4219 patients in our study were divided into groups of T2DM patients with DN or DR, patients with both, and patients without any complications. We successively used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and logistic regression analysis to optimize the feature selection for DN and DR. To ensure the accuracy of the results, we carried out multivariable logistic regression analysis of the above significant risk factors on the sample data for both DN and DR. The selected features were included to establish a prediction model. The C-index, calibration plot, curve analysis and internal validation were used to validate the distinction, calibration, and clinical practicality of the model. RESULTS: The predictors in the prediction model included disease course, body mass index (BMI), total triglycerides (TGs), systolic blood pressure (SBP), postprandial blood glucose (PBG), haemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The model displayed moderate predictive power with a C-index of 0.807 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.807. In internal verification, the C-index reached 0.804. The risk threshold was 16-75% according to the analysis of the decision curve, and the nomogram could be applied in clinical practice. CONCLUSION: This DN or DR incidence risk nomogram incorporating disease course, BMI, TGs, SBP, PBG, HbA1c and BUN can be used to predict DN or DR incidence risk in T2DM patients. The research team has developed an online app based on a clinical prediction model incorporating risk factors for rapid and simple prediction.
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Shi et al. (2020) found a moderately good differentiation and ability to confirm and predict the incidence of diabetic nephropathy and diabetic retinopathy.
“The authors found a moderately good differentiation and ability to confirm and predict the incidence of diabetic nephropathy and diabetic retinopathy.”
From Artificial intelligence based prediction models for individuals at risk of multiple diabetic complications: A systematic review of the literature (2022) · cites this paper as Shi et al. (2020)
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- Authors
- Shi, R., Niu, Z., Wu, B., Zhang, T., Cai, D., Sun, H., Hu, Y., Mo, R., & Hu, F.
- Affiliations
- Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Hu, Fan
- Venue
- Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity: Targets and Therapy
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2020-04
- Volume
- Volume 13
- Pages
- 1215-1229
- ISSN
- 1178-7007 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7182465
- OpenAlex
- W3016422673
- Cited by
- 32
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 2.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Diabetes Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Dove Medical Press (Taylor and Francis Group) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Nephrology › Chronic Kidney Disease and Diabetes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Keywords
- diabetic nephropathy, diabetic retinopathy, type 2 diabetes, risk prediction nomogram, microvascular complications, risk factors, body mass index, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, postprandial blood glucose, HbA1c, blood urea nitrogen, disease duration, clinical prediction model
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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