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Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?
Abstract
According to the conventional view of the business cycle, fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend. The purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view. If fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output, then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one's forecast of output in, say, five or ten years. Our examination of quarterly postwar United States data leads us to be skeptical about this implication. The data suggest that an unexpected change in real GNP of 1 percent should change one's forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon.
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Citations
Cited by
How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?
Cochrane, J. H. (1988) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261569 · Cited by 1,258
Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots
Campbell, J. Y., & Perron, P. (1991) · NBER Macroeconomics Annual · doi:10.1086/654163 · Cited by 1,255
Self-citationThe Persistence of Marketing Effects on Sales
Dekimpe, M. G., & Hanssens, D. M. (1995) · Marketing Science · doi:10.1287/mksc.14.1.1 · Cited by 455
IS ECONOMIC RECOVERY A MYTH? ROBUST ESTIMATION OF IMPULSE RESPONSES
Teulings, C. N., & Zubanov, N. (2014) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.2333 · Cited by 288
Metadata
- Authors
- Campbell, J. Y., & Mankiw, N. G.
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1987-11
- Volume
- 102
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 857
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2166490115
- Cited by
- 776
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 69.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Campbell, J. Y., & Mankiw, N. G. (1987). Are Output Fluctuations Transitory? The Quarterly Journal of Economics. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884285
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
