Disease in Metapopulation Models: Implications for Conservation

Abstract

Several conservation measures are intended to enhance the movement of individuals among populations. These include the establishment of wildlife corridors, captive breeding and release programs, and translocation of individuals among populations. Many metapopulation models show that increasing movement among populations. Many metapopulation models show that increasing movement among populations reduces the chance of metapopulation extinction. However, epidemiological models indicate that increased contact among populations enhances the spread of disease and can trigger epidemics. I have synthesized elements of mathematical epidemiology with metapopulation models. An analytic model showed that highly contagious diseases of moderate severity spread widely, increasing the probability of metapopulation extinction. I also used a simulating model to examine four spatial arrangements of populations: island, necklace, loop, and spider. When infected individuals were allowed to move freely among populations, all of the arrangements exhibited qualitative behavior similar to that exhibited by the analytic models. The most dangerous diseases were those for which infected populations grew large enough to produce dispersers that infected other populations, but which also reduced the geometric rate of increase for infected populations to near unity. Under those conditions, random demographic and environmental events caused metapopulation extinction. Major differences among the spatial arrangements emerged when a quarantine population was established. A centralized quarantine in the spider and necklace arrangement yielded the most dramatic reductions in metapopulation extinction probability. A single quarantine patch was of little value in an island arrangement. These results have several implications for managing metapopulations. Most notably, some spatial arrangements of populations are more amenable to disease control than others, and establishing a quarantine population can increase the probability of detecting new diseases and reduce the impact of diseases that do appear.