Bayesian Inference for Comparative Research
Abstract
Regression analysis in comparative research suffers from two distinct problems of statistical inference. First, because the data constitute all the available observations from a population, conventional inference based on the long-run behavior of a repeatable data mechanism is not appropriate. Second, the small and collinear data sets of comparative research yield imprecise estimates of the effects of explanatory variables. We describe a Bayesian approach to statistical inference that provides a unified solution to these two problems. This approach is illustrated in a comparative analysis of unionization.
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The frequentist inferential framework is inapplicable to small-N case-study analysis.
“a framework that is inapplicable to small-N case-study analysis.”
From A Dialogue with the Data: The Bayesian Foundations of Iterative Research in Qualitative Social Science (2019) · cites this paper as Jackman and Western 1994
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Blake, W. D., Cozza, J. F., Armstrong, D. A., II, & Friesen, A. (2023) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055423000606 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Arzheimer, K. (2008) · The British Journal of Politics and International Relations · doi:10.1111/j.1467-856x.2008.00336.x · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Coalition Quality and Multinational Dispute Outcomes1
Cranmer, S., & Menninga, E. J. (2017) · International Interactions · doi:10.1080/03050629.2017.1369410 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
- Authors
- Western, B., & Jackman, S.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- University of Rochester (US)
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 1994-06
- Volume
- 88
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 412-423
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W1988361986
- Cited by
- 257
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 40 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 3.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Spatial and Panel Data Analysis
- Keywords
- Bayesian inference, comparative research, regression analysis, cross-country data, multicollinearity, small sample inference, unionization, effect estimation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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