Retinal Arteriolar Narrowing Predicts Incidence of Diabetes
Abstract
OBJECTIVE—To examine the relationship of retinal vascular caliber to incident diabetes in a population-based cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study recruited adults aged 25+ years across Australia in 1999–2000, with a follow-up 5 years later in 2004–2005. Participants' glycemic status was classified using fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-h oral glucose tolerance (2-h plasma glucose [2hPG]) tests. Diabetes was diagnosed if FPG was ≥7.0 mmol/l or 2hPG was ≥11.1 mmol/l. Retinal vascular caliber was measured from baseline retinal photographs using a computer-assisted program. RESULTS—Of the 803 participants without diabetes at baseline, 108 (13.4%) developed diabetes at follow-up: 7 (2.8%) of 246 participants with normal glucose tolerance, 9 (13.6%) of 66 participants with impaired fasting glucose, and 92 (18.7%) of 491 participants with impaired glucose tolerance. After multivariate analysis, participants with narrower retinal arteriolar caliber had a higher risk of diabetes (odds ratio 2.21 [95% CI 1.02–4.80], comparing smallest versus highest arteriolar caliber tertiles, P = 0.04 for trend). There was no association between retinal venular caliber and incident diabetes. CONCLUSIONS—Narrower retinal arteriolar caliber predicted risk of diabetes. These data provide further evidence that microvascular changes may contribute to the pathogenesis of diabetes.
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Measures of retinal vascular changes, such as lower arteriole-to-venule ratio and increased retinal arteriole or venular calibre, have been shown to be related to prediabetes or increased risk of diabetes, but the evidence is not entirely consistent.
“Measures of retinal vascular changes, such as lower arteriole-to-venule ratio, increased retinal arteriole or venular calibre, have also been shown to be related to prediabetes or increased risk of diabetes, but the evidence is not entirely consistent.81–83”
From Prediabetes: a high-risk state for diabetes development (2012) · cites this paper as [83]
Prediabetes status may be associated with an increased risk of diabetic retinopathy, although findings vary depending on the method of detection.
“Prediabetes status may be associated with an increased risk of diabetic retinopathy although the findings vary depending on the method of detection.51,79–83”
From Prediabetes: a high-risk state for diabetes development (2012) · cites this paper as [83]
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- Authors
- Nguyen, T. T., Wang, J. J., Islam, F. M. A., Mitchell, P., Tapp, R. J., Zimmet, P. Z., Simpson, R., Shaw, J., & Wong, T. Y.
- Affiliations
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- The University of Sydney (AU)
- Centre for Eye Research Australia, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- Monash University (AU)
- International Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Venue
- Diabetes
- Publisher
- American Diabetes Association
- Published
- 2008-03-01
- Volume
- 57
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 536-539
- ISSN
- 0012-1797 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-327X
- OpenAlex
- W2100375415
- Cited by
- 112
- References
- 26
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 4.75
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Diabetes (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- National University of Singapore (submittedVersion)
- Swinburne figshare (Swinburne University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Sylvia and Charles Viertel Charitable Foundation
- National Health and Medical Research Council
- National Medical Research Council
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Retinal Imaging and Analysis
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Ophthalmology › Retinal Diseases and Treatments
- Keywords
- retinal arteriolar narrowing, retinal vessel diameter, new-onset diabetes, diabetes risk prediction, fundus images, impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glucose, microvascular changes, AusDiab study
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Australia, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Obesity, Risk Factors, Retinal Artery Occlusion, Incidence, Odds Ratio
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