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The Russia-Ukraine war is exacerbating international food price volatility
Open accessAbstract
The IFPRI Food Security Portal’s Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System is showing excessive levels of price volatility in the four major food commodities: wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans, as well as cotton. Markets for hard and soft wheat and soybeans had already been more volatile than normal since late 2021, well ahead of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022. That conflict, coming on top of the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has already contributed to spiking food prices, with possible major consequences for global food security.\nRising price volatility poses a distinct threat, as it induces greater market uncertainty, which affects production decisions, and can spur speculative behavior. Both would fan further food price inflation. What is driving the current price volatility, and what are its implications for markets and food security?
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Before the war, global food prices were already high due to COVID-19 supply chain disruptions, strong global demand, and poor harvests in some countries.
“food prices were already high due to disruptions in the supply chain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, strong global demand, drought, and poor harvests in South America the previous year. These factors combined drive up food prices [15].”
From Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Food Security: Towards More Sustainable and Resilient Food Systems? (2022) · cites this paper as [15]
Following droughts in Brazil and Argentina, the maize market is tight, and the war jeopardizes the next crop and Ukraine's ability to export.
“Following the droughts that had an impact on output in Brazil and Argentina, the market is tight, and the war jeopardizes the next crop and Ukraine’s ability to export [15].”
From Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Food Security: Towards More Sustainable and Resilient Food Systems? (2022) · cites this paper as [15]
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“A continuing war and sanctions would probably raise prices and weaken food security for hundreds of millions of people [15].”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Rice, B., Hernandez, M. A., Glauber, J. W., & Vos, R.
- Published
- 2023
- OpenAlex
- W4383212224
- Cited by
- 37
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 14
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ifpri.org
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
- Keywords
- Russian invasion of Ukraine, food price volatility, food security, wheat prices, corn prices, rice prices, soybean prices, cotton prices, early warning systems, COVID-19 pandemic, global food markets
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