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Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight
Open accessAbstract
The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of uncertainty. This paper presents a method to estimate that conflict probability. The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single, equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and a Monte Carlo validation are presented.
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Citations
Cited by
Resolution of Conflicts Involving Many Aircraft via Semidefinite Programming
Frazzoli, E., Mao, Z.-H., Oh, J.-H., & Feron, E. (2001) · Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics · doi:10.2514/2.4678 · Cited by 269
New algorithms for aircraft intent inference and trajectory prediction
Yepes, J. L., Hwang, I., & Rotea, M. (2007) · Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics · doi:10.2514/1.26750 · Cited by 162
Metadata
- Authors
- Paielli, R. A., & Erzberger, H.
- Venue
- Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics
- Published
- 1997-05
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 588-596
- ISSN
- 0731-5090 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-3884
- OpenAlex
- W2128801172
- Cited by
- 397
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 39.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Paielli, R. A., & Erzberger, H. (1997). Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight. Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.2514/2.4081
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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