The DOI matches its Crossref record; 19 of the 20 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Superiority of Simple Alternatives to Regression for Social Science Predictions
Abstract
Some simple, nonoptimized coefficients (e.g., correlation weights, equal weights) were pitted against regression in extensive prediction competitions. After drawing calibration samples from large supersets of real and synthetic data, the researchers observed which set of sample-derived coefficients made the best predictions when applied back to the superset. When adjusted R from the calibration sample was < .6, correlation weights were typically superior to regression coefficients, even if the sample contained 100 observations per predictor; unit weights were likewise superior to all methods if adjusted R was < .4. Correlation weights were generally the best method. It was concluded that regression is rarely useful for prediction in most social science contexts.
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“However, studies have shown that regression estimates produce ex ante forecasts that are often less accurate than forecasts from 'unit weights' models.”
From Illusions in Regression Analysis (2011) · cites this paper as Dana and Dawes (2004)
Citations
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Metadata
- Authors
- Dana, J., & Dawes, R. M.
- Affiliations
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- ORCID
- Dana, Jason
- Venue
- Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics
- Published
- 2004-09
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 317-331
- ISSN
- 1076-9986 (ISSN-L)
- 1935-1054
- OpenAlex
- W2165744193
- Cited by
- 131
- References
- 20
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 13 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 4.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Applications
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Statistical Methods and Models
- Keywords
- prediction, regression coefficients, correlation weights, equal weighting, unit weight, calibration samples, coefficient selection, synthetic data
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