Immigration Wave Effects on Canada's Trade Flows
Abstract
We utilize an enhanced gravity model to estimate the effect of lagged immigration waves on Canadian imports and exports by province. Empirically, this model was tested using Canadian data on import and export flows to the top 40 countries of origin for Canadian immigrants based upon the composition of the most recent immigrant wave. The results are consistent with previous studies, where immigrants increased both import and export trade flows. By adding the provincial immigrant wave variable, it was also found that new immigrants affect imports almost immediately, whereas for exports, the immigrant effect is not significant for at least five years and may take as long as 20 years to reach full impact.
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The two main studies available found that the increase in trade resulting from immigration was very small, consisted mainly of increased imports of consumer items from newcomers' countries of origin, and therefore had a negative effect on Canada's balance of trade.
“It is thus not surprising that the two main studies available confirm this view, finding that the increase in trade resulting from immigration was not only very small but consisted mainly of an increase in imports of consumer items from the newcomers' countries of origin and therefore had a negative effect on our balance of trade (Head and Reis, 1998; Partridge and Furtan, 2008).”
From Fiscal Transfers to Immigrants in Canada: Responding to Critics and a Revised Estimate (2012) · cites this paper as Partridge and Furtan, 2008
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Fiscal Transfers to Immigrants in Canada: Responding to Critics and a Revised Estimate
Grubel, H., & Grady, P. (2012) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2025139 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
- Authors
- Partridge, J., & Furtan, H.
- Affiliations
- University of Saskatchewan (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Furtan, Hartley
- ORCID
- Partridge, Jamie
- Venue
- Canadian Public Policy
- Published
- 2008-06
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 193-214
- ISSN
- 0317-0861 (ISSN-L)
- 1911-9917
- OpenAlex
- W2161859990
- Cited by
- 28
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2024: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 1 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 3 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 6.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Canadian Public Policy (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Technological Innovation
- Keywords
- immigration waves, Canadian imports, Canadian exports, gravity model, immigrant composition, international trade
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