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Multivariate Poisson-Lognormal Models for Jointly Modeling Crash Frequency by Severity
Abstract
A new multivariate approach is introduced for jointly modeling data on crash counts by severity on the basis of multivariate Poisson-lognormal models. Although the data on crash frequency by severity are multivariate in nature, they have often been analyzed by modeling each severity level separately, without taking into account correlations that exist among different severity levels. The new multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression approach can cope with both overdispersion and a fully general correlation structure in the data, as opposed to the recently suggested multivariate Poisson regression approach, which allows for neither overdispersion nor a general correlation structure in the data. The new method is applied to the multivariate crash counts obtained from intersections in California for 10 years. The results show promise toward the goal of obtaining more accurate estimates by accounting for correlations in the multivariate crash counts and overdispersion.
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Citations
Cites
Econometric Analysis of Count Data
Winkelmann, R. (2003) · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-24728-9 · Cited by 945
Cited by
Lord, D., & Mannering, F. (2010) · Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2010.02.001 · Cited by 1,759
Self-citationAnastasopoulos, P. C., & Mannering, F. L. (2011) · Accident Analysis & Prevention · doi:10.1016/j.aap.2010.12.024 · Cited by 349
Predicting motor vehicle crashes using Support Vector Machine models
Li, X., Lord, D., Zhang, Y., & Xie, Y. (2008) · Accident Analysis & Prevention · doi:10.1016/j.aap.2008.04.010 · Cited by 335
Self-citationMultilevel data and Bayesian analysis in traffic safety
Huang, H., & Abdel-Aty, M. (2010) · Accident Analysis & Prevention · doi:10.1016/j.aap.2010.03.013 · Cited by 294
Wang, J., & Zhang, G. (2011) · Journal of Transportation Safety & Security · doi:10.1080/19439962.2011.591518 · Cited by 8
Metadata
- Authors
- Park, E. S., & Lord, D.
- Venue
- Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2007-01
- Volume
- 2019
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-6
- ISSN
- 0361-1981 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-4052
- OpenAlex
- W2156952342
- Cited by
- 296
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 43.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Park, E. S., & Lord, D. (2007). Multivariate Poisson-Lognormal Models for Jointly Modeling Crash Frequency by Severity. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. https://doi.org/10.3141/2019-01
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
