The DOI matches its Crossref record; 42 of the 51 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 25 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression
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This paper argues that disruptions in credit intermediation during 1930-33 deepened the Great Depression.
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Claims the paper makes
67 Own interpretation · 33 No basis given · 20 Sources not found · 19 Own result · 5 Not checked yet · 4 No full text of the sources · 3 Own method
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“For example, about half of all residential properties were mortgaged at the beginning of the Depression”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“But the subset of corporations holding more than fifty million dollars in assets maintained positive profits throughout this period”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“This is contradicted by the facts that problems of the financial system tended to lead output declines”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > I. Introduction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“For example, the value of urban real estate mortgages outstanding increased from $11 billion in 1920 to $27 billion in 1929”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Simultaneously aggregate output began a recovery that was sustained until 1937.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Also notable Is the fact that bank failures tended to occur in short spasms, rather than in a steady stream (see Table 1, column 2 for monthly data on the deposits of failing banks).”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Runs were clearly an important part of the banking problems of this period.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because of the long spell of low food prices, farmers were in more difficulty than homeowners.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Perhaps more significantly, during the twenties small borrowers, such as households and unincorporated businesses, greatly increased their debts.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Persons (1930) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“because of failures and mergers, the number of banks operating at the end of 1933 was only just above half the number that existed in 1929.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Probably not a substantial claim. 14
- It may state two separate claims as one. 34
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Measures taken after the banking holiday ended the bank runs and greatly reduced the burden of debt.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Aggregate corporate profits before tax were negative in 1931 and 1932, and after-tax retained earnings were negative in each year from 1930 to 1933.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The proportion of mortgaged owner-occupied houses with some interest or principal in default was in none of the twenty-two cities [surveyed) less than 21 percent (the figure for Richmond, Virginia); in half it was above 38 percent; in two (Indianapolis and Birmingham, Alabama) between 50 percent and 60 percent; and in one (Cleveland), 62 percent.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The percentages of operating banks which failed in each year from 1930 to 1933 inclusive were 5.6, 10.5, 7.8, and 12.9”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In March 1933 the bottom was reached for both the financial system and the economy as a whole.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The economy first flattened out, then went into a new tailspin just as the banks began to fail again in June 1931.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“He reported that outstanding corporate bonds and notes increased from $26.1 billion in 1920 to $47.1 billion in 1928, and that non-Federal public securities grew from $11.8 billion to 833.6 billion over the same period.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Persons (1930) source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Fabricant (1935) reported that, in 1932 alone, the losses of corporations with assets of 850,000 or less equalled 33% of total capitalization; for corporations with assets in the 850,000-$100,000 range, the comparable figure was 14%.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fabricant (1935)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the class of borrowers most affected by credit reductions were households, farmers, unincorporated businesses, and small corporations; this group had the highest direct or indirect reliance on bank credit.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Fear of runs led to large withdrawals of deposits, precautionary increases in reserve-deposit ratios, and an increased desire by banks for very liquid or re-discountable assets.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Banks specialize in making loans to small, idiosyncratic borrowers whose liabilities are too few to be publicly traded.
In the paper
“However, his survey results (p.65) show that, of responding manufacturing firms normally dependent on banks, refusal or restriction of bank credit was reported by 30.2% of very small firms (capitalization less than $50,000); 114.3% of small firms ($50,001 -$500,000); 10.3% of medium firms ($500,001 -$1,000,000); and 3.2% of the largest companies”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > VI. Persistence of' the Financial Crisis
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kimmel (1939)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both of these outcomes characterized 1930-33, of course.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For the period from 1921 until the bank holiday, and with monetary variables included, the total effect of credit contraction on output (as measured by the sum of lag coefficients in a polynomial distributed lag) was large (comparable to the monetary effect), negative, and significant at the 95% level.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > Short-run Macroeconomic acts of the Financial Crisis.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The supervised bank closings of March 1933 had the same effect as an unsupervised bank crisis involving 15% as much in frozen deposits.
In the paper
“The fact that we discover a smaller role for money in the monthly data than does Evans (1981) is primarily the result of our inclusion of lagged values of production on the right-hand side.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > Short-run Macroeconomic acts of the Financial Crisis.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Evans (1981)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The fitted series entered the output equations less strongly than the raw series, but it retained the right sign and statistical significance at the 95% confidence level.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > Short-run Macroeconomic acts of the Financial Crisis.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The liabilities of bank and business failures were not determined by anticipations of future output declines.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Equations (p.3) and (U.14) reduced the mean squared simulation error over (p.1) and (4.2) by about fifty per cent.The other (nonreported) equations did better; e.g., those using the yield differential variable reduced the MSE of simulation from ninety to ninety-five per cent.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > Short-run Macroeconomic acts of the Financial Crisis.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Even within the elite sample, 5% of the firms reported difficulty in securing funds for working capital purposes during this period; and 75% could not obtain capital or long-term loan requirements through regular markets.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > VI. Persistence of' the Financial Crisis
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kimmel (1939)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both regressions current and lagged first differences of the added variables enter the explanation of the growth rate of industrial production (relative to trend) with the expected sign and, taken jointly, with a high level of statistical significance.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > Additional information
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“They had a reason for conservatism; while business failures fell quite a bit during the recovery, real estate defaults and foreclosures continued high through 1935.6”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > VI. Persistence of' the Financial Crisis
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [6] 6. Brown, E. Carey, "Fiscal Policy in the 'Thirties: A Reappraisal", American Economic Review, Z6, no. 5 (December 1956), 857-79.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Life insurance companies, which made $525 million in mortgage loans in 1929, made $10 million In new loans in 1933 and $16 million in 193ZL47”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > VI. Persistence of' the Financial Crisis
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [47] 47. Frederiksen (1931), p. 139.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing the amount of importance attributed to the March 1933 crisis raises the magnitude and statistical significance of the measured effects of the financial crises on output.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > Additional information
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“One problem is that there is no theory of monetary effects on the real economy that can explain protracted non-neutrality.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > I. Introduction
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In a run, fear that a bank may fail induces depositors to withdraw their money, which in turn forces liquidation of the bank's assets.”
- Also stated in: § 1. · plain
“Thus the expectation of failure, by the mechanism of the run, tends to become self-confirming.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § 1. · plain
In the paper
“The leading explanation of the correlation between the conditions of the financial sector and of the general economy is that of Friedman and Schwartz, who stressed the effects of the banking crises on the -11supply of money.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Friedman and Schwartz
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Like the banking crises, then, the debt crisis of the 1930s was not qualitatively a new phenomenon; but it represented a break with the past in terms of its severity and pervasiveness.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The two major components of the financial collapse were the loss in confidence in financial institutions, primarily commercial banks, and the widespread insolvency of debtors.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 2!
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We see, then, that the banking crises of the early 1930s differed from earlier recorded experience both in magnitude and in the degree of danger posed by the phenomenon of runs.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In any macroeconomic model one cares to use, this implies lOwer output and lower safe interest rates.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the rapid switch away from the banks (given the banks' accumulated expertise, information, and customer relationship no doubt Impaired financial efficiency and raised the Cd.25”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Banks specialize in making loans to small, idiosyncratic borrowers whose liabilities are too few to be publicly traded.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If it is further accepted that the financial crisis contained large exogenous components (there is evidence for this in the case of the banking panics), then there are elements of causality in the story as well.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > Short-run Macroeconomic acts of the Financial Crisis.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, it must be shown that the disruption of the financial sector by the banking and debt crises raised the real cost of intermediation between lenders and certain classes of borrowers.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Markets for financial claims are incomplete, so intermediation between some classes of borrowers and lenders requires nontrivial market-making and information-gathering services.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Banks specialize in making loans to small, idiosyncratic borrowers whose liabilities are too few to be publicly traded.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If it is accepted that bank suspensions and business bankruptcies were the product of factors beyond pure anticipations of output decline, then the evidence of this section supports the view that non-monetary aspects of the financial crisis were at least part of the propagatory mechanism of the Great Depression.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > Short-run Macroeconomic acts of the Financial Crisis.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Bank suspensions and business bankruptcies were the product of factors beyond pure anticipations of output decline.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although Canadian bankers did not face serious danger of runs, they shifted away from loans to safer assets.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We agree that money was an important factor in 1930-33, but, because of reservations cited in the Introduction, we doubt that it completely explains the financial sector-aggregate output connection.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > 1.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This finding was robust to the obvious experiments.For example, with the above-noted exception of the credit variable in 1933-kl, coefficients remained roughly stable over subsamples.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > Short-run Macroeconomic acts of the Financial Crisis.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An indicator of the strength of lender preferences for safe, liquid assets (and hence of the difficulty of risky borrowers in obtaining funds) is the yield differential between Baa corporate bonds and Treasury bonds (Table 1, column 6).”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Internally, debt problems in agriculture and in mortgage markets were as severe as in the United States, while major industries (notably pulp and paper) experienced many bankruptcies.3”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [3] 3. Behrens, Carl, Commercial Bank Activities in Urban Moe Financ, New York: N.B.E.R., 1952.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“As this quote suggests, the idea that the low yields on Treasury or blue-chip corporation liabilities during this time signalled a general state of”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [33] 33. Minsky, Hyman P., "A Theory of Systematic Fragility", in E.I. Altman and A.W. Sametz, eds., Financial Crises, New York: Wiley-Interscience, 1977.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“But, as argued above, in a world with transactions costs and the need to discriminate among borrowers, these shifts in the loci of credit intermediation must have at least temporarily reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process, thereby raising the effective cost of credit to potential borrowers.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > III. The Effect of the Crisis on the Cost of Credit Intermediation.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Markets for financial claims are incomplete, so intermediation between some classes of borrowers and lenders requires nontrivial market-making and information-gathering services.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Banks specialize in making loans to small, idiosyncratic borrowers whose liabilities are too few to be publicly traded.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“all connected very indirectly (if at all) with the path of industrial production in the United States.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > Additional information
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“During this period, mortgage loans that were made by private institutions went only to the very best potential borrowers: Evidence for this is the sharp drop in default rates of loans made in the early 1930s as compared to loans made in earlier years (see Behrens (1952, p. 11));”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > VI. Persistence of' the Financial Crisis
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Behrens (1952, p. 11)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Unfortunately, like domestic banking, the gold-exchange standard had the instability of a fractional-reserve system.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > VII. International Aects
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The malfunctioning of financial institutions during the early 1930s exemplifies this point.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > VIII. Conclusion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This theory has hope of achieving a reconciliation of the obvious sub-optimality of this period with the postulate of reasonably rational, market-constrained agents.”
§ Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression > VIII. Conclusion
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Markets for financial claims are incomplete, so intermediation between some classes of borrowers and lenders requires nontrivial market-making and information-gathering services.
“The basic premise is that, because markets for financial claims are incomplete, intermediation between some classes of borrowers and lenders requires nontrivial market-making and information-gathering services.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Banks specialize in making loans to small, idiosyncratic borrowers whose liabilities are too few to be publicly traded.
“We assume, however, that banks specialize in making loans to small, idiosyncratic borrowers whose liabilities are too few in number to be publicly traded.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Good borrowers' projects generate a random return whose mean always exceeds the social opportunity cost of investment.
“These projects generate a random return from a distribution whose mean will be assumed always to exceed the social opportunity cost of investment.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Bad borrowers have no project, squander any loan received in profligate consumption, then default.
“Bad borrowers are assumed to squander any loan received in profligate consumption, then to default.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Banks choose operating procedures that minimize the cost of credit intermediation.
“Banks presumably choose operating procedures that minimize the CCI.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Debt contracts were written in nominal terms.
“Given that debt contracts were written in nominal terms,15 the protracted fall in prices and money incomes greatly increased debt burdens.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The behavior of borrowers unaffected by credit market problems is unchanged.
“Assume that the behavior of borrowers unaffected by credit market problems is unchanged.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The supervised bank closings of March 1933 had the same effect as an unsupervised bank crisis involving 15% as much in frozen deposits.
“As a conservative compromise, we assumed that the”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The liabilities of bank and business failures were not determined by anticipations of future output declines.
“Assuming that these latter variables themselves were not determined by anticipations of future output declines (see below), the use of the fitted series from this regression”
The paper relies on this without support.
Canada entered the Depression with a large external debt, much of it payable in foreign currencies.
“Canada entered the Depression with a large external debt, much of it payable in foreign currencies.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The combination of deflation and the devaluation of the Canadian dollar led to many defaults.
“The combination of deflation and the devaluation of the Canadian dollar led to many defaults.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Outputs of large and small businesses are potentially substitutes.
“Unless it is believed that the outputs of large and of small businesses are not potentially substitutes, the aggregate supply effect must be regarded as not of great quantitative importance.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Bank suspensions and business bankruptcies were the product of factors beyond pure anticipations of output decline.
“If it is accepted that bank suspensions and business bankruptcies were the product of factors beyond pure anticipations of output decline, then the evidence of this section supports the view that non-monetary aspects of the financial crisis were at least part of the propagatory mechanism of the Great Depression.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Failures of banks and commercial firms are not caused by anticipations of future changes in output.
“To conclude that the observed correlations support the theory outlined in this paper requires an additional assumption, that failures of banks and commercial firms are not caused by anticipations of (future) changes in output.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The countries in which banking crises occurred (the U.S., Germany, Austria, Hungary, and others) were among the worst-hit by the Depression.
“The countries in which banking crises occurred (the U.S., Germany, Austria, Hungary, and others) were among the worst-hit by the Depression.”
The paper relies on this without support.
International reserves included foreign currencies, notably the dollar and the pound; for countries other than the U.S. and the U.K., foreign exchange was 35% of total reserves.
“International reserves included not only gold but also foreign currencies, notably the dollar and the pound; for countries other than the U.S. and the U.K., foregn exchange was 35% of total reserves.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In 1931 expectations that the international financial system would collapse became self-fulfilling.
“In 1931 expectations that the international financial system would collapse became self-fulfilling.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Largely due to fixed exchange rates, the deflation of prices was worldwide.
“Largely due to fixed exchange rates, the deflation of prices was worldwide.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Countries with large nominal debts, notably agricultural exporters, became unable to pay.
“Countries with large nominal debts, notably agricultural exporters (the case of Canada has been mentioied), became unable to pay.”
The paper relies on this without support.
International capital flows were reduced to a trickle.
“International capital flows were reduced to a trickle.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Banking crises had never previous to this time been a necessary result of declines in output.
“First, banking crises had never previous to this time been a necessary result of declines in output.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“In turn, this reduction in investment may exacerbate regional or macroeconomic diculties (Bernanke, 1983).”
From The economics of small business finance: The roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle (1998) · cites this paper as Bernanke, 1983
Citations
Cites
Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information
Stiglitz, J. E., & Weiss, A. (1981) · Columbia University · doi:10.7916/d8v12ft1 · Cited by 12,769
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Research works printed but not linked: 15
- [12]12. Cone, Kenneth, unpublished dissertation, Stanford University, 1982.
- [16]16. Federal Reserve Bulletin, various issues.
- [19]19. Frederiksen, D.M., "Two Financial Roads Leading Out of Depression", Harvard Business Review, 10, no. 1 (October 1931), 131-I8.
- [21]21. Friedman, Milton, and Anna J. Schwartz, A MonetI !2.1 2! United State 1867-1960, Princeton: Princeton U. Press, 1963.
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- [39]39. Safrian, A.E., The Canadian Eonoj in the Great s1on, Toronto: U. of Toronto Press, 1959.
- [42]42. Stoddard, W.L., "Small Business Wants Capital", Harvard Business Review, 18, no. 3 (Spring 19110), 265-7'4. Surv of Current Business, v a rio u s I ss u e s. Temin, Peter, Did Moneta Forces Cause the Great !ression?, New York: W.W. Norton, 1976. Twentieth Century Fund, Debts and Recov 1929-1937, New York, 1938 (written by A.G. Hart). U.S. Department of Commerce, Historical Statistics of the UnIted States, 1975. National Income, 19511. impossible in a complete-markets world.
- [43]43. To concentrate on credit intermediation, we neglect the transactions and other services performed by banks.
- [46]46. Nugent (1939), pp. 11ZI_16. 31. Merwin (19L$2), p. 5 and p. 75. 32. Twentieth Century Fund, p. 163.
- [50]50. Federal Reserve Bulletin, 1937, pp. 866-7.
- [52]52. ZO. Cagan (1965) makes this point; see pp. 216, 227-8. The 1920-22
- [53]53. Brown (1956) has argued that New Deal fiscal policy was not very constructive. A paper by Michael Weinstein in the Brunner volume (exact reference to be found) pointed out counterproductive aspects of the N.R.A. 43. These passages are quoted in Stoddard (1940). 44. Ibid. 45. See Chandler (1970), pp. 150-51.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Bernanke, B.
- Affiliations
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bernanke, Ben
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 1983-01
- OpenAlex
- W1968450183
- Cited by
- 2,173
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 87 · 2024: 77 · 2023: 81 · 2022: 86 · 2021: 83 · 2020: 118 · 2019: 120 · 2018: 92 · 2017: 85 · 2016: 116 · 2015: 79 · 2014: 107 · 2013: 82 · 2012: 80
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
- Keywords
- Great Depression, credit allocation, credit constraints, aggregate production, aggregate demand, bank failures, financial services, debtors, banking sector
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