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Cited by 167Political Conflict and GovernanceNatural Resources and Economic DevelopmentCulture, Economy, and Development Studies

The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence

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Besley, Timothy, Persson, Torsten·2008·National Bureau of Economic Research
DOI 10.3386/w14585
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Abstract

This paper studies the incidence of civil war over time.We put forward a canonical model of civil war, which relates the incidence of conflict to circumstances, institutions and features of the underlying economy and polity.We use this model to derive testable predictions and to interpret the cross-sectional and times-series variations in civil conflict.Our most novel emprical finding is that higher world market prices of exported, as well as imported, commodities are strong and significant predictors of higher within-country incidence of civil war.

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  • An increase in commodity prices, a measure of resource revenues exogenous to each country, significantly increases the incidence of conflict.

    “Besley and Persson (2008) find that an increase in commodity prices (a measure of resource revenues exogenous to each country) significantly increases the incidence of conflict.”

    From Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult? (2016) · cites this paper as Besley and Persson (2008)

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Research works printed but not linked: 20

  1. Aslaksen, Silje and Ragnar Torvik (2006), "A Theory of Civil Conflict and Democracy in Rentier States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 108, 571-585.
  2. Azam, Jean-Paul (2005), "The Paradox of Power Reconsidered: A The- ory of Political Regimes in Africa," Journal of African Economies 15, 26-58.
  3. Besley, Timothy and Torsten Persson (2008a), "The Origins of State Capacity: Property Rights, Taxation and Politics", forthcoming in the American Economic Review.
  4. Besley, Timothy and Torsten Persson (2009), "Repression or Civil War?", forthcoming in American Economic Review, Papers and Pro- ceedings.
  5. Blattman, Christopher and Edward Miguel (2008), "Civil War," forth- coming in Journal of Economic Literature.
  6. Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler (2004), "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers 56, 563-595.
  7. Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Måns Söderbom (2004), "On the Du- ration of Civil War," Journal of Peace Research 41, 253-273.
  8. Collier, Paul and Dominic Rohner (2008), "Democracy, Development and Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association 6, 531- 540.
  9. Deininger, Klaus, (2003) "Causes and Consequences of Civil Strife: Micro-Level Evidence from Uganda."Oxford Economic Papers 55, 579- 606.
  10. Elbadawi, Ibrahim and Nicholas Sambanis (2002). "How Much Civil War Will We See? Explaining the Prevalence of Civil War", Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, 307-334.
  11. Fearon, James (2005), "Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War " Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, 483-507.
  12. Fearon, James (2008), "Economic Development, Insurgency and Civil War," in Helpman, Elhanan (ed.), Institutions and Economic Perfor- mance, Harvard Economic Press.
  13. Fearon, James and David Laitin (2003). "Ethnicity, Insurgency and Civil War", American Political Science Review 97, 75-90.
  14. Garfinkel, Michelle R. and Stergios Skaperdas (2007), "Economics of Conflict: An Overview," in Todd Sandler and Keith Hartley (eds.), Handbook of Defense Economics, Vol. II, Elsevier.
  15. Grossman, Herschel (1991) "A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrec- tion," American Economic Review 81, 912-921.
  16. Humphreys, Macartan (2005), "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Con- flict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms," Journal of Conflict Res- olution 49, 508-537.
  17. Persson, Torsten and Guido Tabellini (2003), The Economic Effects of Constitutions, MIT Press.
  18. Ross, Michael (2004) "What Do We Know about Natural Resources and Civil War?", Journal of Peace Research 41, 337-356.
  19. Sambanis, Nicholas (2004), "What is Civil War. Conceptual and Em- pirical Complexities of an Operational Definition", Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, 814-858.
  20. Skaperdas, Stergios (1992), "Cooperation, Conflict, and Power in the Absence of Property Rights," American Economic Review 82, 720-39.

Cited by

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Authors
Besley, T., & Persson, T.
Affiliations
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
  • Stockholm University (SE)
Venue
National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published
2008-12
DOI
10.3386/w14585
OpenAlex
W2113116462
Cited by
167
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 6 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 9
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
  • London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
  • London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Canadian Institute for Advanced Research
  • London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Vetenskapsrådet
  • Economic and Social Research Council
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
Keywords
civil war, commodity prices, international prices, merchandise exports, conflict determinants, institutions, polity, economic conditions, cross-national variation, time series variability

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