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Cited by 228Labor market dynamics and wage inequalityEconomic Theory and PolicyUnemployment and Economic Growth

Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries

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Jaimovich, Nir, Siu, Henry·2012·National Bureau of Economic Research
DOI 10.3386/w18334
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Abstract

Job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle-skill, routine occupations experienced recently, over the last 35 years.Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions, despite recoveries in aggregate output.We show how these two phenomena are related.First, essentially all employment loss in routine occupations occurs in economic downturns.Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate can be accounted for by jobless recoveries in the routine occupations that are disappearing.

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  • Most permanent job losses in middle-skill positions since the 1980s happened during recessions rather than between them.

    “Jaimovich and Siu (2012), examining rebounds in job loss across occupational categories after every economic recession in the U.S. since the 1970s, find that an overwhelming proportion of permanent job loss in middle-skill positions since the 1980s occurred during periods of economic recession rather than periods between economic recessions.”

    From Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States (2019) · cites this paper as Jaimovich and Siu (2012)

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Research works printed but not linked: 20

  1. Aaronson, D., E. R. Rissman, and D. G. Sullivan (2004). Can sectoral reallocation explain the jobless recovery? Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 28 (2), 36-49.
  2. Acemoglu, D. (1999). Changes in unemployment and wage inequality: An alternative theory and some evidence. American Economic Review 89 (5), 1259-1278.
  3. Autor, D. H. and D. Dorn (2013). The growth of low skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review 103 (5), 1553-1597.
  4. Autor, D. H., L. F. Katz, and M. S. Kearney (2006). The polarization of the u.s. labor market. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 96 (2), 189-194.
  5. Brynjolfsson, E. and A. McAfee (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
  6. Burger, J. D. and J. S. Schwartz (2018). Jobless recoveries: Stagnation or structural change? Economic Inquiry 56 (2), 709-723.
  7. Charles, K. K., E. Hurst, and M. J. Notowidigdo (2018). Housing booms, manufacturing decline and labour market outcomes. Economic Journal .
  8. Christiano, L. J. and T. J. Fitzgerald (2003). The band pass filter. International Economic Review 44, 435-465.
  9. Cortes, G. M. (2016). Where have the middle-wage workers gone? a study of polarization using panel data. Journal of Labor Economics 34 (1), 63-105.
  10. Gali, J., F. Smets, and R. Wouters (2012). Slow recoveries: A structural interpretation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 44 (Supplement s2), 9-30.
  11. Goos, M. and A. Manning (2007). Lousy and lovely jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain. Review of Economics and Statistics 89 (1), 118-133.
  12. Goos, M., A. Manning, and A. Salomons (2009). Job polarization in Europe. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 99 (2), 58-63.
  13. Gordon, R. J. and M. N. Baily (1993). The jobless recovery: Does it signal a new era of productivity-led growth? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1993 (1), 271-316.
  14. Graetz, G. and G. Michaels (2017). Is modern technology responsible for jobless recoveries? American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 107 (5), 168-173.
  15. Groshen, E. L. and S. Potter (2003). Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery? Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 9 (8), 1-7.
  16. Koenders, K. and R. Rogerson (2005). Organizational dynamics over the business cycle: a view on jobless recoveries. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review July/August, 555-580.
  17. Kopytov, A., N. Roussanov, and M. Taschereau-Dumouchel (2018). Short-run pain, long-run gain? recessions and technological transformation. Journal of Monetary Economics 97, 29-44.
  18. Rytina, N. F. and S. M. Bianchi (1984). Occupational reclassification and changes in distribution by gender. BLS Monthly Labor Review 107 (3), 11-17.
  19. Schreft, S. L. and A. Singh (2003). A closer look at jobless recoveries. Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Second Quarter, 45-72.
  20. Stein, R. L. (1967). New definitions for employment and unemployment. Employment and Earnings and Monthly Report on the Labor Force 14 (2), 3-27.

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Authors
Jaimovich, N., & Siu, H.
Affiliations
National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
Corresponding author
Jaimovich, Nir
ORCID
Siu, Henry
Venue
National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published
2012-08
DOI
10.3386/w18334
OpenAlex
W3123452044
Cited by
228
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 43 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 25 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 5
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
  • Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion)
Funders
Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Unemployment and Economic Growth
Keywords
job polarization, jobless recovery, routine occupations, job loss, economic recession, economic downturn, aggregate employment, output recovery

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