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Cited by 198Family Dynamics and RelationshipsGender, Labor, and Family DynamicsLabor market dynamics and wage inequality

Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States

Open access
Seltzer, Nathan·2019·Demography
DOI 10.1007/s13524-019-00790-6PMC PMC7197790

Published version of a preprint

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Abstract

In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forgo childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006–2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition—specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses—have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time—in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate with economic cycles—further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1007/s13524-019-00790-6

Cites

97 of 97 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

17 of 79 cited sources checked · 5 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    Postponing childbearing by even a few years can lower the lifetime fertility of women's cohorts.

    “Delays in childbearing – even for a couple of years – can reduce lifetime fertility rates for cohorts of women (Bongaarts and Feeney 1998; Currie and Schwandt 2014; Morgan 2003; Ryder 1980).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Bongaarts and Feeney 1998 source
    • cites Currie and Schwandt 2014 source

      The Results (page unavailable) report that cohorts exposed to high unemployment in their early 20s had fewer children in both the short and long term, rather than simply postponing births. This supports the possibility that a short-run fertility reduction can persist, but the paper does not establish that delaying childbearing by just a couple of years itself reduces lifetime fertility. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Morgan 2003 source
  • Premisecitation

    When economic prosperity falls during downturns and financial uncertainty rises, women and couples delay childbearing.

    “As economic prosperity diminishes during cyclical downturns and financial uncertainty and distress increases, women and couples postpone childbearing (Balbo et al. 2013; Buckles, Hungerman, and Lugauer 2018; Currie and Schwandt 2014).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Balbo et al. 2013 source

      The Economic Trends section reports studies linking downturns and uncertainty to postponed childbearing, and the Economic and Employment Uncertainty section links precarious circumstances to delayed parenthood. But the review describes the evidence as mixed, including contrary cyclical findings and differences in how women respond to uncertainty. The claim states the pattern more generally than the source supports. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Buckles, Hungerman, and Lugauer 2018 source

      The Introduction reports that conception growth declined around recent U.S. downturns, often before recessions began, and the Conclusion describes fertility as pro-cyclical. The paper does not establish that rising financial uncertainty or distress caused women and couples to postpone childbearing; it treats delayed births as a possibility rather than a demonstrated explanation. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Currie and Schwandt 2014 source

      The Abstract (page unavailable) reports that fertility falls as unemployment rises, and the Results say reduced household income might help explain lower fertility during recessions. But the paper does not establish that financial uncertainty causes postponement; its Results find that women facing high unemployment in their early 20s do not just postpone births, but have fewer children in the long term. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    Since the 1980s, U.S. labor markets have lost middle-skill, middle-income manufacturing and construction jobs, largely because of assembly line automation and offshoring of routine production.

    “Since the 1980s, the U.S. labor market has experienced declines in middle-skill, middle-income jobs in manufacturing and construction as a result of improvements in assembly line automation and the displacement of routine production jobs offshore, among other explanations (Acemoglu and Autor 2011; Autor, Katz, and Kearney 2006; Kalleberg 2009).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Acemoglu and Autor 2011 source
    • cites Autor, Katz, and Kearney 2006 source

      The Abstract and Section II report employment growth favoring high- and low-wage jobs over middle-wage jobs in the 1990s, and the paper models computerization as displacing routine production tasks. They do not establish that declining middle-wage jobs were specifically in manufacturing and construction, or that offshoring caused those declines; Section III presents outsourcing only as a possible complementary mechanism. Section II also distinguishes the 1980s employment pattern from the polarization observed in the 1990s. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Kalleberg 2009 source
  • Premisecitation

    Structural changes in labor markets tend to persist longer than unemployment rates, which vary with economic cycles.

    “Since structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time, in contrast to unemployment rates which fluctuate with economic cycles”
    • Also stated in: § STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS · plain
      “once manufacturing and other goods-producing jobs disappear, they rarely return during post-recessional recovery periods (Abel and Deitz 2012).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Abel and Deitz 2012 source

      The Polarization of Employment (p. 3) says routine middle-skill jobs are lost largely during recessions and that employment in those jobs never recovers, supporting the persistence of a specific labor-market change. The paper does not discuss unemployment rates fluctuating with economic cycles or directly compare their duration with structural changes. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    Employer discrimination is also cited as a cause of racial differences in labor market occupational distributions.

    “Racial differences in labor market occupational distributions are also attributed to employer discrimination (Pager and Pedulla 2015).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Pager and Pedulla 2015 source
  • May combine two claims. 42
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 19

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The goods-producing sector contains a disproportionate share of middle-skill, middle-income jobs, making it an appropriate measure of local labor market polarization.

    “Past research on labor market polarization has established that the goods-producing business sector contains a disproportionate share of middle-skill, middle-income jobs and therefore represents an appropriate measure of local labor market polarization (Abel and Deitz 2012).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Abel and Deitz 2012 source

      The Economic Forces behind Job Polarization (p. 2) says the goods-producing sector employs a disproportionate share of middle-skill workers. But for its regional analysis, Job Polarization in New York and Northern New Jersey (p. 5) measures changes in employment across four skill groups; it does not establish the goods-producing sector as an appropriate measure of local polarization. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The finding of small or non-significant unemployment coefficients contrasts with earlier Great Recession studies that found considerable pro-cyclicality; the discrepancy may be explained by the extended time period and geographic level examined.

    “Although this finding contrasts with earlier studies on the Great Recession which find considerable evidence of pro-cyclicality (e.g. Currie and Schwandt 2014; Morgan et al. 2011; Schneider 2015), this discrepancy might be explained by the extended time period of the present study and the geographic level examined.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Currie and Schwandt 2014 source
    • cites Morgan et al. 2011

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Schneider 2015

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    After economic recessions, non-white workers take longer to find re-employment than white workers, leading to longer unemployment spells and more financial precarity.

    “Consequently, the search for re-employment for non-white workers after economic recessions has been more drawn out than for whites, entailing lengthier spells of unemployment and therefore increased periods of financial precarity (Couch and Fairlie 2010; Hout and Cumberworth 2012).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Couch and Fairlie 2010 source

      The Unemployment Transitions section reports that unemployed Black men were less likely than white men to be reemployed the following month (29.4% versus 33.6%), supporting a slower return to work for the group studied. But the Conclusion says this reemployment gap did not change over the business cycle. The paper studies Black men rather than all non-white workers, and the cited passages do not establish increased financial precarity. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Hout and Cumberworth 2012 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Discrimination in employer hiring practices has significantly perpetuated racial disparities and created social barriers to stable, long-term employment.

    “Discrimination in hiring practices by employers has played a significant role in perpetuating these racial disparities, constructing social barriers towards stable and long-term employment (Fryer, Pager, and Spenkuch 2013; Pager, Bonikowski, and Western 2009).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Fryer, Pager, and Spenkuch 2013

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Pager, Bonikowski, and Western 2009 source

      The Experimental Results (Race-Coded Job Channeling, page unavailable) describe racial barriers in hiring that reduce minority applicants’ chances of employment, supporting the claim about disparities and barriers. The Discussion (page unavailable) says discrimination may have long-term effects, but the study examines hiring decisions, not whether applicants obtain stable, long-term employment. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    From 2006 to 2014, Hispanics had the largest share of workers in goods-producing industries, followed by whites, while blacks and Asians had the smallest shares.

    “Throughout this nine-year period, Hispanics had the highest percentage of workers employed in goods-producing industries, followed by whites. Black and Asian workers had the smallest percentage of workers in goods-producing industries.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Between 2006 and 2014, white total fertility declined by 7.7 percent, black by 7 percent, and Asian by 7.8 percent.

    “white TFR declined 7.7%, black TFR declined 7%, and Asian TFR declined 7.8% between 2006–2014.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Total fertility rates for all racial and ethnic groups began falling in 2008, but the rates of decline differed across groups.

    “For all racial/ethnic groups, TFR began to decline in 2008, although at different rates.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    Substituting the single/never-married rate for the divorce rate for ages 15-64 produced results comparable to previous ACS subset models.

    “In Online Appendix Table S2, I substitute the rate of single/never-married in an MSA for the MSA divorce rate for the population age 15–64. The results from these ACS models are likewise comparable to the previous ACS subset models.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In Model 4, unemployment coefficients remained non-significant for black and Asian women and close to zero for white women.

    “In regard to the unemployment rate, the coefficients remain non-significant for black and Asian women, and close to zero for white women.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The overall total fertility rate decline between 2006 and 2014 was .136 for white, .139 for black, .143 for Asian, and .547 for Hispanic women.

    “the overall decline in TFR between 2006–2014 was .136 for white women, .139 for black women, .143 for Asian women, .547 for Hispanic women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The average share of goods-producing businesses in metropolitan statistical areas fell sharply at the start of the Great Recession, and the rate of decline slowed and leveled off by 2014.

    “Panel B displays a sharp decline in the average share of goods-producing businesses in MSAs at the start of the Great Recession. The rate of decline decreased and leveled off towards the end of the period in 2014.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In Model 1, the unemployment rate had a significant negative association with total fertility for non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic Asian, and Hispanic women.

    “The results indicate a significant, negative association between the unemployment rate and TFR for non-Hispanic white women (β = −.007 S.E. = .001), non-Hispanic black women (β = −.012; S.E. = .005), non-Hispanic Asian women (β = −.016; S.E. = .007), and Hispanic women (β = .036; S.E. = .005).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Labor market polarization influenced total fertility for all racial and ethnic groups throughout the extended period, with a substantially larger effect size for women of color than for whites, particularly black and Hispanic women.

    “While labor market polarization was found to influence TFR for all racial/ethnic groups throughout the extended period analysis, the effect size is substantially larger in magnitude for women of color than for whites, particularly black and Hispanic women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The 1991-2014 extended period models produced results substantively comparable to the 2006-2014 analysis for the percentage goods-producing coefficients, though the effect size was largest for black women.

    “The results are substantively comparable to the results from the 2006–2014 analysis for the percentage goods-producing coefficients (Table 3), although the effect size is largest for black women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For metropolitan-area unemployment, the relationship between the unemployment rate and racial and ethnic total fertility remained pro-cyclical throughout 1991-2014 for white and Asian women, but not for black and Hispanic women.

    “For MSA-level unemployment, the coefficients suggest that the relationship between the unemployment rate and racial/ethnic total fertility rate remained pro-cyclical throughout the entire period for white and Asian women, but not for black and Hispanic women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In Model 3, goods-producing business coefficients remained similar to Model 2 but slightly diminished, while unemployment coefficients attenuated in size and significance compared with Model 1.

    “the effect size of the percentage of goods-producing businesses coefficients remain similar to those estimated in Model 2 for all racial/ethnic groups, although their magnitude slightly diminishes. In contrast, the coefficients for the unemployment rate attenuate in both size and significance in comparison to the coefficients estimated in Model 1.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Declines in the percentage of goods-producing businesses accounted for 37 percent of the overall total fertility decline for white, 38 percent for black, 46 percent for Asian, and 26 percent for Hispanic women.

    “declines in the percentage of goods-producing businesses on average account for 37% of overall TFR declines for white women, 38% of overall TFR declines for black women, 46% of overall TFR declines for Asian women, and 26% of overall TFR declines for Hispanic women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The average metropolitan statistical area unemployment rate rose sharply when the Great Recession began in 2008 and then declined slowly after 2011.

    “the average MSA unemployment rate increased sharply at the start of the Great Recession in 2008 and then slowly declined after 2011.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The goods-producing businesses coefficient did not change across periods for white women, slightly increased for Asian women, and slightly decreased for Hispanic women.

    “While the coefficient for the percentage of goods-producing businesses does not change across time periods for white women, it slightly increases for Asian women and slightly decreases for Hispanic women.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The goods-producing businesses effect size was significantly larger for Hispanics than for whites, blacks, and Asians, with no significant difference among the latter three groups.

    “Comparing coefficients across racial and ethnic groups (Eq. 3), the results indicate that the effect size for the goods-producing businesses parameters is significantly larger for Hispanics than for whites, blacks, and Asians. There is no significant difference between the coefficients for the latter three groups.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Over 1991-2014, the average unemployment rate was 6.2 percent, with an average low of 4.2 percent in 2001 and an average high of 9.6 percent in 2011.

    “Throughout this 24-year period, the average unemployment rate was 6.2%, although cyclical economic expansions and contractions resulted in an average low of 4.2 % in 2001 and an average high of 9.6% in 2011.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The age-specific fertility rate models suggest that fertility rates for teenage women ages 15-19 were significantly responsive to structural economic conditions for white and Hispanic women and to cyclical economic conditions for white women.

    “The age-specific fertility rate models also suggest that fertility rates for teenage women ages 15–19 were significantly responsive to changes in structural economic conditions for both white and Hispanic women and changes in cyclical economic conditions for white women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In those age-specific models, the effect size was small and mostly non-significant for women in their 30s and 40s.

    “Since the effect size is small and mostly non-significant for women in their 30s and 40s, the results suggest that births are likely being delayed rather than entirely foregone.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The U.S. total fertility rate was about 1.77 births per woman in 2017, below replacement, and had fallen from 2.12 in 2007.

    “The total fertility rate for the United States remained below replacement at about 1.77 births per woman in 2017 (Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017; Martin, Hamilton, and Osterman 2018), down from 2.12 births per woman in 2007.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Martin, Hamilton, and Osterman 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisereasoning

    Economic conditions and fertility are theorized to have a pro-cyclical relationship, with fertility rising in expansions and falling in recessions.

    “Researchers theorize a pro-cyclical relationship between economic conditions and fertility behavior: fertility rates increase during economic expansions and decrease during economic recessions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    By 2015-2016, U.S. median household income and the unemployment rate had returned to or exceeded their pre-recession levels.

    “the national unemployment rate returned to its pre-recession level of 4.7% in May 2016 (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017) and median household income surpassed pre-recession levels in 2015 (Semega, Fontenot, and Kollar 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Semega, Fontenot, and Kollar 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Labor market polarization has lowered demand for middle-skill jobs while raising demand for lower-paid, low-skill service positions.

    “This process of “labor market polarization” has reduced employment demand for jobs in the middle of the occupational skills distribution while increasing employment demand for lower-paid, low-skill service sector positions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Following the Great Recession, white families lost about 26.2% of family wealth on average, while black and Hispanic families lost 47.6% and 44.3%, respectively.

    “McKernan et al. (2014), for instance, find that while white families experienced an average decrease in family wealth of approximately 26.2% following the Great Recession, black and Hispanic families lost 47.6% and 44.3%, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites McKernan et al. (2014) source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    From 2007 to 2015, GFR declined 3% for non-Hispanic whites, 10% for non-Hispanic blacks, 10% for Asian/Pacific Islanders, and 36% for Hispanics.

    “According to national vital statistics records on fertility between 2007 to 2015 (Hamilton et al. 2017), GFR decreased 3% for non-Hispanic whites, 10% for non-Hispanic blacks, 10% for Asian/Pacific Islanders, and 36% for Hispanics.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hamilton et al. 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation

    Fixed-effects models control for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity that enters linearly and additively.

    “The analytic method used in the present analysis, fixed-effects, controls for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity that enters the specifications linearly and additively (Allison 2009).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Allison 2009 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Fixed-effects analyses do not account for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity.

    “Fixed-effects analyses, however, do not account for time-varying sources of unobserved heterogeneity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    During the Great Recession, younger women had lower age-specific GFR while women in their 40s maintained pre-recession levels.

    “Cherlin and colleagues (2013) likewise finds variation across age groups during the Great Recession: while younger women experienced decreases in age-specific GFR, women in their 40s continued having children at the same pre-recession age-specific GFR levels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cherlin and colleagues (2013)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Between 2007 and 2009, employment in production, craft, and repair fell 17%, and in operators, fabricators, and laborers fell 15%.

    “between 2007–2009, employment in occupational categories of production, craft, and repair decreased by 17% and employment in occupational categories of operators, fabricators, and laborers decreased by 15% (Autor 2010).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Autor 2010

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Of 13,709 TFR observations, 159 exceeded 4.0; excluding them did not substantively change the regression results.

    “Of 13,709 total TFR observations, 159 exceed 4.0. I remove these cases from the analytic sample to ensure that outliers are not influencing the regression results. The inclusion of these values in the models, however, does not substantively change the results.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Between 2005-2006 and 2010-2011, black men lost representation in high-wage and middle-wage occupations, while non-Hispanic white men changed little.

    “research on occupational shifts of African American men during the Great Recession by Holder (2015) indicates that black men experienced declines in representation in high-wage and middle-wage occupational categories between 2005–2006 and 2010–2011, while non-Hispanic white men experienced only minor shifts in their representation in the same occupational categories.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Holder (2015)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The TFR briefly rose in 2014 and then declined further through 2017.

    “Only in 2014 did the TFR briefly reverse course and increase before decreasing yet more through 2017 (Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017; Martin et al. 2018).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Martin et al. 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Premisereasoning

    Because goods-producing job availability is a supply-side matter, the distribution of business establishments is preferred over the distribution of workers for measuring structural labor market conditions.

    “Additionally, because the availability of goods-producing jobs in a local area is a matter of supply, the distribution of business establishments, rather than the distribution of workers across occupations, is the preferred measurement of structural labor market conditions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Calculating TFR from local-area population estimates and birth records produced a few implausible values.

    “The use of local-area population estimates in conjunction with birth records to calculate TFR generates a few implausible TFR values.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Black and Asian/Pacific Islander fertility rates fell more than white rates but less than Hispanic rates.

    “Second, black and Asian/Pacific Islander fertility rates decreased more sharply than white fertility rates, but less than Hispanic fertility rates.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The analysis uses population-level data and cannot test individual-level influences on fertility decisions.

    “The present analysis relies on population-level data and cannot test how individual-level factors influence fertility decision-making.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    To reduce threats to causal inference, the analysis includes theoretically relevant covariates lagged by one year.

    “To minimize threats to causal inference, I include a set of theoretically relevant covariates that are lagged one year (Table 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Economic recessions have accelerated permanent structural changes in U.S. labor markets and lowered demand for middle-wage, middle-income jobs.

    “Overall, economic recessions have hastened permanent structural changes in U.S. labor markets and have reduced the demand for middle-wage, middle-income jobs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    A plausible mechanism for the macroeconomic relationship is individual financial uncertainty caused by displacement from goods-producing jobs.

    “One plausible mechanism through which this macroeconomic relationship may operate is individual-level financial uncertainty, initiated by job displacement from manufacturing, construction, and other goods-producing industries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The battery of alternate specifications yielded results comparable to the previously estimated models in Tables 3 and 4, suggesting the findings are largely robust.

    “In total, this battery of alternate specifications yields comparable results to the previously estimated models in Table 3 and Table 4, suggesting that the findings are largely robust.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
    • Rests on an assumption: The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Job loss in goods-producing industries is more devastating for non-white workers because racial disparities in employment exist even during economically prosperous times.

    “Job loss in goods-producing industries is more devastating for non-white workers since racial disparities in employment exist even during economically prosperous times (Janoski et al. 2014; Moore 2010).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Janoski et al. 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Moore 2010 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The expected post-recession rebound in U.S. fertility rates has not occurred; fertility rates continued to decline, and 2017 reached an unprecedented national low for general fertility rates.

    “However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In fact, fertility rates continue to decline, with 2017 reaching an unprecedented national low for general fertility rates (Hamilton et al. 2018).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hamilton et al. 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Researchers have overlooked important long-term structural changes in U.S. labor markets, particularly the decline of manufacturing and construction and the rise of low-paid service jobs.

    “Researchers have overlooked important long-term structural changes in U.S. labor markets, particularly the decline of manufacturing and construction industries, and the coincident rise of low-paid jobs in service industries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    The bridged-race population estimates used are the same source used by NCHS for public vital statistics and are regarded as the best source of population data for this task.

    “However, the bridged-race population estimates used in the present analysis are the same source of population estimates used by the NCHS when they generate and distribute public release vital statistics figures, including fertility rates, and are regarded as the best source of population data for this task.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The analysis uses aggregate data and is susceptible to ecological fallacy; the findings should be interpreted only as population-level behavior patterns, not individual-level choices.

    “First, the present analysis uses aggregate data and is susceptible to ecologically fallacious inference; the findings should only be interpreted in terms of population-level behavior patterns, not individual-level choices.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Past research suggests that LARC and unintended pregnancy trends contributed to post-recession fertility declines.

    “Past research suggests that these trends contributed to post-recession fertility declines (Fletcher and Polos 2017; Schneider and Gemmill 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Fletcher and Polos 2017 source
    • cites Schneider and Gemmill 2016 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The association between structural labor market changes and fertility dates at least to the early 1990s, before major increases in LARC availability and usage, suggesting LARCs may be part but not the entire explanation for the findings.

    “However, the association between structural labor market changes and fertility dates at least to the early 1990s (Table 5) before major increases in LARC availability and usage (Branum and Jones 2015), suggesting that LARCs may be part of but not the entire story of the present findings.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Branum and Jones 2015

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The study offers an innovative economic explanation for why U.S. fertility rates continue to decline.

    “Despite these limitations, this study offers an innovative economic explanation for why fertility rates in the United States continue to decline.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The total fertility rate measure relies on both administrative data and population estimates.

    “Second, the TFR measure relies on both administrative data and population estimates.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The bridged-race population estimates used as denominators are accurate enough for calculating total fertility rates.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The denominators of the total fertility rate equation, population counts, draw on bridged-race population estimates.

    “the denominators of the equation, population counts, draw on bridged-race population estimates.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The bridged-race population estimates used as denominators are accurate enough for calculating total fertility rates.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    By proposing a structural economic explanation for continued fertility decline, the study contributes to understanding how macroeconomic conditions influence fertility behavior and decision-making.

    “By proposing a structural economic explanation for why fertility rates continues to decline, this study contributes to the understanding of how macroeconomic conditions influence fertility behavior and decision-making.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Prevailing theoretical perspectives on how economic conditions influence fertility have primarily relied on cyclical measures of economic change.

    “Prevailing theoretical perspectives on how economic conditions influence fertility have primarily relied on cyclical measures of economic change.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
56 of 56

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.

    “In Model 2, I estimate the effect of labor market polarization, measured as the percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area, on TFR without the inclusion of the unemployment rate parameter.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.

    “Since the specifications presented above do not account for several unmeasured, time-varying metropolitan area characteristics that might influence the results, I conduct a series of robustness checks which test alternate specifications of these models.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The bridged-race population estimates used as denominators are accurate enough for calculating total fertility rates.

    “the denominators of the equation, population counts, draw on bridged-race population estimates.”
3 of 3

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Hispanic unemployment coefficient has the opposite sign from the stated association

    Minor

    Model 1 describes the unemployment association as negative for every group, but its reported coefficient for Hispanic women is positive (+.036).

  • Hispanic unemployment coefficient has the opposite sign from the stated result

    Minor

    The paper describes the Model 1 association as negative for Hispanic women, but reports a positive coefficient of .036 for that group. This reverses the stated direction of the result.

  • Period-interaction model assigns β to the wrong period

    Minor

    In the stated equation, the post-recession indicator is zero before the post-recession period, so β is the pre-recession/recession coefficient; the post-recession coefficient is β plus γ. The text instead assigns β to the post-recession period.

3 of 3

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

7 of the 104 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 23

  1. Bound, 1999, Losing ground: The erosion of the relative earnings of African American women during the 1980s, 61
  2. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 2008, Labor force characteristics by race and ethnicity, 2007
  3. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 2012, The recession of 2007–2009
  4. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 2017, LNS14000000: Labor force statistics from the Current Population Survey
  5. Flanagan, 2013, Home value and homeownership rates: Recession and post-recession comparisons from 2007–2009 to 2010–2012 (Amercian Community Survey Briefs Report Number ACSBR/12-20)
  6. Goodman, 2011, Employment loss and the 2007–09 recession: An overview, Monthly Labor Review, April, 3
  7. Kochhar, 2011, In two years of economic recovery, women lost jobs, men found them (Social and Demographic Trends report)
  8. Levine, 2012, Race and male employment in the wake of the great recession: Black male employment rates in Milwaukee and the nation’s largest metro areas 2010 (CED Publications No. 20)
  9. Martin, 2018, Births in the United States, 2017 (NCHS Data Brief No. 318)
  10. Martin, 2014, Fewer marriages, more divergence: Marriage projections for millennials to age 40 (Urban Institute Research Report)
  11. McConnell, 2016, Providing pubic workforce services to job seekers: 15-month impact findings on the WIA Adult and Dislocated Worker programs
  12. Morgan, 2011, The Great Recession’s influence on fertility, marriage, divorce, and cohabitation, 220
  13. Morgan, 2012, Family, the lifecourse, and the Great Recession
  14. National Center for Health Statistics, 2016, Natality detail data set, 2000–2014
  15. Office of Management and Budget, 2013, Revised delineations of metropolitan statistical areas, micropolitan statistical areas, and combined statistical areas, and guidance on uses of the delineations of these areas (OMB Bulletin No. 13-01)
  16. 2013, Potential explanations for the high net undercount rate of young children in the U.S. decennial census.
  17. Percheski, C., & Kimbro, R. (2014). How did the Great Recession affect fertility?Focus, 30(2), 26–30. Retrieved from https://www.irp.wisc.edu/publications/focus/pdfs/foc302g.pdf
  18. Sawhill, 1977, Economic perspectives on the family, Daedalus, 106, 115
  19. Sawhill, 2015, Is there a shortage of marriageable men? (CCF Brief No. 56)
  20. U.S. Census Bureau, 2016, 2020 census research and testing: Investigating the 2010 undercount of young children—Examining the coverage of young mothers
  21. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008, American Community Survey: New survey questions enable measurement of marital transitions
  22. U.S. Department of Labor, 2012, The African-American labor force in the recovery
  23. U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2012, The financial crisis response in charts

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Seltzer, N.
Affiliations
University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
Corresponding author
Seltzer, Nathan
ORCID
Seltzer, Nathan
Venue
Demography
Publisher
Duke University Press
Published
2019-06-18
Volume
56
Issue
4
Pages
1463-1493
ISSN
  • 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
  • 1533-7790
DOI
10.1007/s13524-019-00790-6
PMC
PMC7197790
OpenAlex
W2950717371
Cited by
196
References
104
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 121 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 1
FWCI
22.64
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Demography (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
  • OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • University of Wisconsin-Madison (P2CHD047873)
  • National Institute on Aging (T32AG000129)
  • Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD047873, P2CHD047873, T32HD007014)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
Keywords
fertility decline, labor market polarization, Great Recession, total fertility rate, structural unemployment, manufacturing decline, industry structure, financial uncertainty, childbearing decisions, racial and ethnic groups, urban labor markets, economic recovery
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Adult, Birth Rate, Employment, Ethnicity, Female, Humans, Middle Aged, Mothers, Socioeconomic Factors, Unemployment, United States, Urban Population, Racial Groups, Young Adult, Economic Recession

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-09-28.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-09-28.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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