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Cited by 349

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 43 of the 43 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments

Open access
Baker, Scott, Bloom, Nicholas·2013·National Bureau of Economic Research
DOI 10.3386/w19475
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Abstract

A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms.But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth?To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions.We then use natural disasters, terrorist attacks and unexpected political shocks as instruments for our stock market proxies of first and second moment shocks.We find that both the first and second moments are highly significant in explaining GDP growth, with second moment shocks accounting for at least a half of the variation in growth.Variations in higher moments of stock market returns appear to have little impact on growth.

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Metadata

Authors
Baker, S., & Bloom, N.
Venue
National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published
2013-09
DOI
10.3386/w19475
OpenAlex
W1533404837
Cited by
349
References
43
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
green

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.3386/w19475
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Baker, S., & Bloom, N. (2013). Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w19475

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