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Cited by 14Monetary Policy and Economic ImpactFamily Dynamics and RelationshipsGender, Labor, and Family Dynamics

Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?

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Buckles, Kasey, Hungerman, Daniel, Lugauer, Steven·2018·National Bureau of Economic Research
DOI 10.3386/w24355
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Abstract

Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle.In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline.Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.

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  • When economic prosperity falls during downturns and financial uncertainty rises, women and couples delay childbearing.

    “As economic prosperity diminishes during cyclical downturns and financial uncertainty and distress increases, women and couples postpone childbearing (Balbo et al. 2013; Buckles, Hungerman, and Lugauer 2018; Currie and Schwandt 2014).”

    From Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States (2019) · cites this paper as Buckles, Hungerman, and Lugauer 2018

    The Introduction reports that conception growth declined around recent U.S. downturns, often before recessions began, and the Conclusion describes fertility as pro-cyclical. The paper does not establish that rising financial uncertainty or distress caused women and couples to postpone childbearing; it treats delayed births as a possibility rather than a demonstrated explanation. (LLM, conf=0.85)

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Research works printed but not linked: 45

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Cited by

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Authors
Buckles, K., Hungerman, D., & Lugauer, S.
Affiliations
University of Notre Dame (US)
ORCID
Buckles, Kasey
Venue
National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published
2018-02
DOI
10.3386/w24355
OpenAlex
W2788013679
Cited by
14
References
3
Citations by year
2024: 1 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 3
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
Keywords
fertility, leading economic indicators, business cycles, economic recession, conception, economic expectations

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