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COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty
Open accessAbstract
Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed.We identify three indicators -stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys -that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures.We use these indicators to document and quantify the enormous increase in economic uncertainty in the past several weeks.We also illustrate how these forward-looking measures can be used to assess the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis.Specifically, we feed COVID-induced first-moment and uncertainty shocks into an estimated model of disaster effects developed by Baker, Bloom and Terry (2020).Our illustrative exercise implies a year-on-year contraction in U.S. real GDP of nearly 11 percent as of 2020 Q4, with a 90 percent confidence interval extending to a nearly 20 percent contraction.The exercise says that about half of the forecasted output contraction reflects a negative effect of COVID-induced uncertainty.
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Li, R., Pei, S., Chen, B., Song, Y., Zhang, T., Yang, W., & Shaman, J. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abb3221 · Cited by 3,633
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Wright, A. L., Sonin, K., Driscoll, J., & Wilson, J. (2020) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2020.10.008 · Cited by 298
Moore, S. E., Wierenga, K. L., Prince, D. M., Gillani, B., & Mintz, L. J. (2021) · Journal of Homosexuality · doi:10.1080/00918369.2020.1868184 · Cited by 193
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Metadata
- Authors
- Baker, S., Bloom, N., Davis, S., & Terry, S.
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2020-04
- OpenAlex
- W3015948226
- Cited by
- 1,519
- References
- 1
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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