Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020
Open accessAbstract
The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that collapse resulted from government-imposed restrictions versus people voluntarily choosing to stay home to avoid infection. This paper examines the drivers of the economic slowdown using cellular phone records data on customer visits to more than 2.25 million individual businesses across 110 different industries. Comparing consumer behavior over the crisis within the same commuting zones but across state and county boundaries with different policy regimes suggests that legal shutdown orders account for only a modest share of the massive changes to consumer behavior (and that tracking county-level policy conditions is significantly more accurate than using state-level policies alone). While overall consumer traffic fell by 60 percentage points, legal restrictions explain only 7 percentage points of this. Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection. Traffic started dropping before the legal orders were in place; was highly influenced by the number of COVID deaths reported in the county; and showed a clear shift by consumers away from busier, more crowded stores toward smaller, less busy stores in the same industry. States that repealed their shutdown orders saw symmetric, modest recoveries in consumer visits, further supporting the small estimated effect of policy. Although the shutdown orders had little aggregate impact, they did have a significant effect in reallocating consumer visits away from "nonessential" to "essential" businesses and from restaurants and bars toward groceries and other food sellers.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Using county-level data, the authors tend to find relatively small reductions in travel due to SIPOs.
“we tend to find relatively small reductions in travel due to SIPOs.”
From Policy evaluation during a pandemic (2023) · cites this paper as Goolsbee and Syverson (2021)
Our results on the effect of SIPOs on travel are more similar to existing estimates (e.g., Goolsbee and Syverson (2021)).
“First, our results on the effect of SIPOs on travel are more similar to existing estimates (e.g., Goolsbee and Syverson (2021)).”
From Policy evaluation during a pandemic (2023) · cites this paper as Goolsbee and Syverson (2021)
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
The impact of COVID-19 on small business outcomes and expectations
Bartik, A. W., Bertrand, M., Cullen, Z. N., Glaeser, E. L., Luca, M., & Stanton, C. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2006991117 · Cited by 1,614 · see citing works
COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty
Baker, S., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w26983 · Cited by 1,564 · see citing works
Alternative Transformations to Handle Extreme Values of the Dependent Variable
Burbidge, J. B., Magee, L., & Robb, A. L. (1988) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1988.10478575 · Cited by 1,425 · see citing works
The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic
Hsiang, S., Allen, D., Annan-Phan, S., Bell, K., Bolliger, I. W., Chong, T., Druckenmiller, H., Huang, L. Y., Hultgren, A., Krasovich, E., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2404-8 · Cited by 1,378 · see citing works
The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27141 · Cited by 496 · see citing works
(2020) · Cited by 469 · see citing works
Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims
Forsythe, E. C., Kahn, L., Lange, F., & Wiczer, D. G. (2020) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104238 · Cited by 453 · see citing works
Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S
Chernozhukov, V., Kasahara, H., & Schrimpf, P. (2021) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.09.003 · Cited by 403 · see citing works
Civic capital and social distancing during the Covid-19 pandemic☆
Barrios, J. M., Benmelech, E., Hochberg, Y. V., Sapienza, P., & Zingales, L. (2020) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104310 · Cited by 278 · see citing works
Dave, D., Friedson, A., Matsuzawa, K., & Sabia, J. J. (2020) · Economic Inquiry · doi:10.1111/ecin.12944 · Cited by 265 · see citing works
Cox, N., Ganong, P., Noel, P., Vavra, J., Wong, A., Farrell, D., Greig, F. E., & Deadman, E. (2020) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.2020.0006 · Cited by 238 · see citing works
Gupta, S., Nguyen, T. D., Lozano-Rojas, F. A., Raman, S., Lee, B., Bento, A. I., Simon, K. I., & Wing, C. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27027 · Cited by 229 · see citing works
Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.
Schrimpf, P., Kasahara, H., & Chernozhukov, V. (2020) · doi:10.1920/wp.cem.2020.2420 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes
Gupta, S., Montenovo, L., Nguyen, T. D., Lozano-Rojas, F. A., Schmutte, I. M., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27280 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
COVID-19 doesn’t need lockdowns to destroy jobs: the effect of local outbreaks in Korea
Aum, S., Lee, S. Y. (., & Shin, Y. (2021) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2021.101993 · Cited by 175 · see citing works
Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis
Bartik, A. W., Bertrand, M., Lin, F., Rothstein, J. M., & Unrath, M. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27613 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
Benzell, S. G., Collis, A., & Nicolaides, C. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2008025117 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Did California’s Shelter-in-Place Order Work? Early Coronavirus-Related Public Health Effects
Friedson, A., McNichols, D., Sabia, J. J., & Dave, D. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w26992 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
Alexander, D., & Karger, E. (2021) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_01108 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Watanabe, T., & Yabu, T. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0252468 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policies during the COVID-19 pandemic
Berry, C. R., Fowler, A., Glazer, T., Handel-Meyer, S., & Macmillen, A. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2019706118 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Lozano-Rojas, F. A., Jiang, X., Montenovo, L., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27127 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Effects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes
Gupta, S., Montenovo, L., Nguyen, T. D., Lozano-Rojas, F. A., Schmutte, I. M., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2022) · Contemporary Economic Policy · doi:10.1111/coep.12582 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Controlling Epidemic Spread: Reducing Economic Losses with Targeted Closures
Birge, J. R., Candogan, O., & Feng, Y. (2020) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2022.4318 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
COVID-19 Doesn't Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs: The Effect of Local Outbreaks in Korea
Aum, S., Lee, S. Y., & Shin, Y. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27264 · Cited by 105 · see citing works
Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity
Alfaro, L., Faia, E., Lamersdorf, N., & Saidi, F. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27134 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Dave, D., Friedson, A., Matsuzawa, K., & Sabia, J. J. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27091 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Alexander, D., & Karger, E. (2020) · doi:10.21033/wp-2020-12 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Cronin, C. J., & Evans, W. N. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27531 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
The COVID-19 Pandemic: Government vs. Community Action Across the United StatesPreprint
Brzezinski, A., Deiana, G., Kecht, V., & Dijcke, D. V. (2020) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.13140/rg.2.2.10115.84006 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Bachas, N., Ganong, P., Noel, P., Vavra, J., Wong, A., Farrell, D., & Greig, F. E. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27617 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Dave, D., Friedson, A., Matsuzawa, K., Sabia, J. J., & Safford, S. (2020) · Journal of Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jue.2020.103294 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Controlling Epidemic Spread: Reducing Economic Losses with Targeted ClosuresPreprint
Birge, J. R., Candogan, O., & Feng, Y. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3590621 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis
Bartik, A. W., Bertrand, M., Lin, F., Rothstein, J. M., & Unrath, M. (2020) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.2020.0010 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Impacts of State Reopening Policy on Human Mobility
Nguyen, T. D., Gupta, S., Andersen, M. S., Bento, A. I., Simon, K. I., & Wing, C. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27235 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Expected Health Effects of Reduced Air Pollution from COVID-19 Social Distancing
Cicala, S., Holland, S., Mansur, E. T., Muller, N. Z., & Yates, A. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27135 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Baqaee, D., Farhi, E., Mina, M. J., & Stock, J. H. (2020) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.2020.0013 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Civic Capital and Social Distancing during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Barrios, J. M., Benmelech, E., Hochberg, Y. V., Sapienza, P., & Zingales, L. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27320 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
COVID-19 Lockdown Policies at the State and Local LevelPreprint
Goolsbee, A., Luo, N. B., Nesbitt, R., & Syverson, C. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3682144 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Effect of Stay-at-Home Orders on COVID-19 Infections in the United StatesPreprint
Fowler, J. H., Hill, S. J., Levin, R., & Obradovich, N. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3576826 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Impacts of state COVID ‐19 reopening policy on human mobility and mixing behavior
Nguyen, T. D., Gupta, S., Andersen, M. S., Bento, A. I., Simon, K. I., & Wing, C. (2021) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.1002/soej.12538 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Dave, D., Friedson, A., Matsuzawa, K., Sabia, J. J., & Safford, S. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27229 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Causal Estimation of Stay-at-Home Orders on SARS-CoV-2 TransmissionPreprint
Chen, M. K., Zhuo, Y., de la Fuente, M., Rohla, R., & Long, E. F. (2020) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2005.05469 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Did the Wisconsin Supreme Court Restart a Covid-19 Epidemic? Evidence from a Natural ExperimentPreprint
Dave, D., Friedson, A., Matsuzawa, K., McNichols, D., & Sabia, J. J. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3620628 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Which Retail Outlets Generate the Most Physical Interactions?
Avi Goldfarb, B., & Tucker, C. E. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27042 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Amuedo‐Dorantes, C., Kaushal, N., & Muchow, A. N. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27759 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Dave, D., Friedson, A., Matsuzawa, K., Sabia, J. J., & Safford, S. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3608511 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in ChinaPreprint
Fang, H., Wang, L., & Yang, Y. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3559382 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Weather, Social Distancing, and the Spread of COVID-19 *Preprint
Wilson, D. J. (2020) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2020.07.23.20160911 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-Time Application to COVID-19Preprint
Couture, V., Dingel, J. I., Green, A., Handbury, J., & Williams, K. (2020) · doi:10.21034/iwp.35 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Japan’s Voluntary LockdownPreprint
Yabu, T., & Watanabe, T. (2021) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.14658618 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Which Retail Outlets Generate the Most Physical Interactions?Preprint
Goldfarb, A., & Tucker, C. E. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3575227 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 55 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Berry Christopher Fowler Anthony Glazer Tamara Handel-Meyer Samantha MacMillen Alec Not another COVID paper: the modest effects of shelter-in-place policies Mimeo 2020 PMC8053946 33766888
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The Macroeconomics of Epidemics
Eichenbaum, M., Rebelo, S. T., & Trabandt, M. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w26882 · Cited by 943 · see citing works
Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Stepner, M., & The Opportunity Insights Team (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27431 · Cited by 699 · see citing works
Exploring the impacts of COVID-19 on travel behavior and mode preferences
Abdullah, M., Dias, C., Muley, D., & Shahin, M. (2020) · Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives · doi:10.1016/j.trip.2020.100255 · Cited by 679 · see citing works
The Macroeconomics of Epidemics
Eichenbaum, M., Rebelo, S. T., & Trabandt, M. (2021) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhab040 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Determinants of Disparities in Covid-19 Job Losses
Montenovo, L., Jiang, X., Lozano-Rojas, F. A., Schmutte, I. M., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27132 · Cited by 434 · see citing works
Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Stepner, M., Opportunity Insights Team, Alatas, H., Baker, C., Barnhard, H., Bell, M., Bruich, G. A., Chelidze, T., et al. (2023) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjad048 · Cited by 355 · see citing works
Laborde, D., Martin, W. J., & Vos, R. (2021) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12624 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
Political Beliefs affect Compliance with COVID-19 Social Distancing OrdersPreprint
Painter, M., & Qiu, T. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3569098 · Cited by 322 · see citing works
Suffering in silence: How COVID-19 school closures inhibit the reporting of child maltreatment
Baron, E. J., Goldstein, E. G., & Wallace, C. T. (2020) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104258 · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols
Wright, A. L., Сонин, К. И., Driscoll, J., & Wilson, J. (2020) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2020.10.008 · Cited by 298 · see citing works
Early evidence of the impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment
Couch, K. A., Fairlie, R. W., & Xu, H. (2020) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104287 · Cited by 282 · see citing works
COVID-19, consumer behavior, technology, and society: A literature review and bibliometric analysis
Cruz‐Cárdenas, J., Забелина, Е. В., Guadalupe-Lanas, J., Palacio-Fierro, A., & Ramos-Galarza, C. (2021) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121179 · Cited by 280 · see citing works
Internal and External Effects of Social Distancing in a Pandemic
Farboodi, M., Jarosch, G., & Shimer, R. (2020) · doi:10.3386/w27059 · Cited by 270 · see citing works
Which workers bear the burden of social distancing?
Mongey, S., Pilossoph, L., & Weinberg, A. (2021) · The Journal of Economic Inequality · doi:10.1007/s10888-021-09487-6 · Cited by 262 · see citing works
Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe
Palomino, J. C., Rodríguez, J. G., & Sebastian, R. (2020) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103564 · Cited by 250 · see citing works
Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?
Granja, J., Makridis, C. A., Yannelis, C., & Zwick, E. (2022) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.05.006 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Large socio-economic, geographic and demographic disparities exist in exposure to school closures
Parolin, Z., & Lee, E. K. (2021) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01087-8 · Cited by 217 · see citing works
Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing?
Mongey, S., Pilossoph, L., & Weinberg, A. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27085 · Cited by 214 · see citing works
COVID–19 media coverage and ESG leader indices
Akhtaruzzaman, M., Boubaker, S., & Umar, Z. (2021) · Finance research letters · doi:10.1016/j.frl.2021.102170 · Cited by 209 · see citing works
Determinants of Disparities in Early COVID-19 Job Losses
Montenovo, L., Jiang, X., Lozano-Rojas, F. A., Schmutte, I. M., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2022) · Demography · doi:10.1215/00703370-9961471 · Cited by 158 · see citing works
Almagro, M., & Orane-Hutchinson, A. (2020) · Journal of Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jue.2020.103293 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Kalemli‐Özcan, Ṣ., Gourinchas, P., Penciakova, V., & Sander, N. (2020) · IMF Working Paper · doi:10.5089/9781513557748.001 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Political beliefs affect compliance with government mandates
Painter, M., & Qiu, T. (2021) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2021.03.019 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
Shared mobility in post-COVID era: New challenges and opportunities
Shokouhyar, S., Shokoohyar, S., Sobhani, A., & Gorizi, A. J. (2021) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2021.102714 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?Preprint
Mongey, S., Pilossoph, L., & Weinberg, A. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3586077 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Risk perceptions and politics: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic
Barrios, J. M., & Hochberg, Y. V. (2021) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.039 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality
Deaton, A. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28392 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
Alexander, D., & Karger, E. (2021) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_01108 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Watanabe, T., & Yabu, T. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0252468 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Kalemli‐Özcan, Ṣ., Yeşiltaş, S., & Yıldırım, M. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28395 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
Coccia, M. (2023) · AIMS Public Health · doi:10.3934/publichealth.2023012 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policies during the COVID-19 pandemic
Berry, C. R., Fowler, A., Glazer, T., Handel-Meyer, S., & Macmillen, A. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2019706118 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Consumer responses to the COVID‐19 crisis: evidence from bank account transaction data*
Andersen, A. L., Hansen, E. T., Johannesen, N., & Sheridan, A. (2022) · Scandinavian Journal of Economics · doi:10.1111/sjoe.12512 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
A comparison of COVID-19 epidemiological indicators in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland
Yarmol-Matusiak, E. A., Cipriano, L. E., & Stranges, S. (2021) · Scandinavian Journal of Public Health · doi:10.1177/1403494820980264 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19
Arthi, V., & Parman, J. M. (2020) · Explorations in Economic History · doi:10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101381 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
The Care Burden during COVID-19: A National Database of Child Care Closures in the United States
Lee, E. K., & Parolin, Z. (2021) · Socius Sociological Research for a Dynamic World · doi:10.1177/23780231211032028 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Cantor, J., Sood, N., Bravata, D. M., Pera, M. F., & Whaley, C. (2022) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102581 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Cash Transfers in Pandemic Times
Gentilini, U. (2022) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/37700 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?Preprint
Hubbard, R. G., & Strain, M. R. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3718188 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity
Alfaro, L., Faia, E., Lamersdorf, N., & Saidi, F. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27134 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Barro, R. J. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27049 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality
Deaton, A. (2021) · LSE Public Policy Review · doi:10.31389/lseppr.26 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak
Bick, A., Blandin, A., Mertens, K., & Dallas, F. R. B. O. (2021) · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers · doi:10.24149/wp2017r2 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Coccia, M. (2022) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-022-22024-w · Cited by 86 · see citing works
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth
Gagnon, J. E., Kamin, S. B., & Kearns, J. (2023) · Journal of the Japanese and International Economies · doi:10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101258 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: Evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns
Asahi, K., Undurraga, E. A., Valdés, R., & Wagner, R. A. (2021) · Journal of Global Health · doi:10.7189/jogh.10.05002 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Social distancing and supply disruptions in a pandemic
Bodenstein, M., Giancarlo Corsetti, A., & Guerrieri, L. (2022) · Quantitative Economics · doi:10.3982/qe1618 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Economic sentiment during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from search behaviour in the EU
van der Wielen, W., & Barrios, S. (2020) · Journal of Economics and Business · doi:10.1016/j.jeconbus.2020.105970 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
COVID-19: Lockdowns, Fatality Rates and GDP Growth
König, M., & Winkler, A. (2021) · Intereconomics · doi:10.1007/s10272-021-0948-y · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests
Atkeson, A. G., Droste, M., Mina, M. J., & Stock, J. H. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28031 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Internet-of-nano-things (IoNT) driven intelligent face masks to combat airborne health hazard
Chaudhary, V., Gautam, A., Silotia, P., Malik, S., Hansen, R. D. O., Khalid, M., Khosla, A., Kaushik, A. K., & Mishra, Y. K. (2022) · Materials Today · doi:10.1016/j.mattod.2022.08.019 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Alexander, D., & Karger, E. (2020) · doi:10.21033/wp-2020-12 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Cronin, C. J., & Evans, W. N. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27531 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Antipova, A. (2021) · Social Sciences & Humanities Open · doi:10.1016/j.ssaho.2021.100224 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Impacts of COVID-19 on the self-employed
Kalenkoski, C. M., & Pabilonia, S. W. (2021) · Small Business Economics · doi:10.1007/s11187-021-00522-4 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report
Fernández‐Villaverde, J., & Jones, C. I. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28004 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Fukushige, M., Ngo, N.-H., Lukmanto, D., Fukuda, S., & Ohneda, O. (2022) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.946077 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Antràs, P., Redding, S., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2020) · doi:10.3386/w27840 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Hussain, Z. (2021) · Digital Applications in Archaeology and Cultural Heritage · doi:10.1016/j.daach.2021.e00182 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Herby, J., Jonung, L., & Hanke, S. H. (2023) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2023.08.30.23294845 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Dave, D., Friedson, A., Matsuzawa, K., Sabia, J. J., & Safford, S. (2020) · Journal of Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jue.2020.103294 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
What Explains Temporal and Geographic Variation in the Early US Coronavirus Pandemic?
Allcott, H., Boxell, L., Conway, J., Ferguson, B., Gentzkow, M. A., & Goldman, B. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27965 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Poverty and Economic Dislocation Reduce Compliance with COVID-19 Shelter-in-Place ProtocolsPreprint
Wright, A. L., Сонин, К. И., Driscoll, J., & Wilson, J. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3573637 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
The impact of COVID-19 on the European short-term rental market
Guglielminetti, E., Loberto, M., & Mistretta, A. (2023) · Empirica · doi:10.1007/s10663-023-09576-x · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Mandated and Voluntary Social Distancing During The COVID-19 Epidemic: A Review
Gupta, S., Simon, K. I., & Wing, C. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28139 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
No lockdown in the kitchen: How the COVID-19 pandemic has affected food-related behaviours
Grunert, K. G., Bauw, M. D., Dean, M., Lähteenmäki, L., Maison, D. A., Pennanen, K., Sandell, M. A., Stasiuk, K., Stickel, L., Tárrega, A., et al. (2021) · Food Research International · doi:10.1016/j.foodres.2021.110752 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
The Australian Labour Market and the Early Impact of COVID‐19: An Assessment
Borland, J., & Charlton, A. (2020) · Australian Economic Review · doi:10.1111/1467-8462.12386 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Covid-19, unemployment, and health: time for deeper solutions?
Hensher, M. (2020) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.m3687 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Antràs, P., Redding, S. J., & Rossi‐Hansberg, E. (2023) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20201479 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
The unequal effects of the health–economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic
Pangallo, M., Aleta, A., del Rio-Chanona, R. M., Pichler, A., Martín-Corral, D., Chinazzi, M., Lafond, F., Ajelli, M., Moro, E., Moreno, Y., et al. (2023) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-023-01747-x · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?
Hubbard, G., & Strain, M. R. (2020) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.2020.0027 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Saccone, D., & Vallino, E. (2025) · Agricultural and Food Economics · doi:10.1186/s40100-025-00388-0 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Glaeser, E. L., Jin, G. Z., Leyden, B. T., & Luca, M. (2021) · Journal of Regional Science · doi:10.1111/jors.12539 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’
Gourinchas, P., Kalemli‐Özcan, Ṣ., Penciakova, V., & Sander, N. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w29293 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Almagro, M., Coven, J., Gupta, A., & Orane-Hutchinson, A. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3695249 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Bizjak, J. M., Kalpathy, S. L., Mihov, V. T., & Ren, J. (2022) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.13173 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Leeson, P. T., & Rouanet, L. (2021) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.1002/soej.12497 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession
Gallant, J., Kroft, K., Lange, F., & Notowidigdo, M. J. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27924 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Understanding firm survival in a global crisis
Salunkhe, U., Rajan, B., & Kumar, V. (2021) · International Marketing Review · doi:10.1108/imr-05-2021-0175 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
The economic impacts of COVID-19 and city lockdown: Early evidence from China
Wu, J., Zhan, X., Xu, H., & Ma, C. (2023) · Structural Change and Economic Dynamics · doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2023.02.018 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
The impact of the non-essential business closure policy on Covid-19 infection rates
Song, H., McKenna, R. M., Chen, A. T., David, G., & Smith–McLallen, A. (2021) · International Journal of Health Economics and Management · doi:10.1007/s10754-021-09302-9 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
IT shields: Technology adoption and economic resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic
Oikonomou, M., Pierri, N., & Timmer, Y. (2023) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102330 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Does COVID-19 make the firms’ performance worse? Evidence from the Chinese listed companies
Zhang, D., & Zheng, W. (2022) · Economic Analysis and Policy · doi:10.1016/j.eap.2022.03.001 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Coccia, M. (2023) · Technology in Society · doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2023.102233 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Covid-19 and Flattening the Curve: A Feedback Control Perspective
Lauro, F. D., Kiss, I. Z., Rus, D. L., & Santina, C. D. (2020) · IEEE Control Systems Letters · doi:10.1109/lcsys.2020.3039322 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
COVID-19: Early evening curfews and mobility
Velias, A., Georganas, S., & Vandoros, S. (2021) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114538 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy
Auerbach, A. J., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Murphy, D. (2021) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103810 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Fezzi, C., & Fanghella, V. (2021) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103907 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Fear of COVID‐19 contagion and consumption: Evidence from a survey of Italian households
Immordino, G., Jappelli, T., Oliviero, T., & Zazzaro, A. (2021) · Health Economics · doi:10.1002/hec.4464 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Kawaguchi, K., Kodama, N., & Tanaka, M. (2021) · Journal of the Japanese and International Economies · doi:10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101138 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
The Blossoming of Economic Epidemiology
McAdams, D. (2021) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-082120-122900 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic
Spelta, A., & Pagnottoni, P. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92134-x · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Economic and Health Impacts of Social Distancing Policies during the Coronavirus PandemicPreprint
Allcott, H., Boxell, L., Conway, J., Ferguson, B., Gentzkow, M. A., & Goldman, B. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3610422 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Assessing the Association Between Social Gatherings and COVID-19 Risk Using Birthdays
Whaley, C., Cantor, J., Pera, M. F., & Jena, A. B. (2021) · JAMA Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.2915 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Labor market trends and unemployment insurance generosity during the pandemic
Finamor, L., & Scott, D. (2020) · Economics Letters · doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109722 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Chen, S., Klaus Prettner, A., Kühn, M., & Bloom, D. E. (2021) · The Journal of the Economics of Ageing · doi:10.1016/j.jeoa.2021.100328 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Juranek, S., & Zoutman, F. T. (2021) · Journal of Population Economics · doi:10.1007/s00148-021-00868-9 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Children and Adolescents Dietary Habits and Lifestyle Changes during COVID-19 Lockdown in Italy
Farello, G., D’Andrea, M., Quarta, A., Grossi, A., Pompili, D., Altobelli, E., Stagi, S., & Balsano, C. (2022) · Nutrients · doi:10.3390/nu14102135 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19
Atkeson, A. G., Kopecky, K., & Zha, T. A. (2021) · AEA Papers and Proceedings · doi:10.1257/pandp.20211064 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Browne, C. J., Gulbudak, H., & Macdonald, J. C. (2020) · Journal of Theoretical Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110919 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
- Authors
- Goolsbee, A., & Syverson, C.
- Affiliations
- University of Chicago (US)
- Corresponding author
- Goolsbee, Austan
- Venue
- Journal of Public Economics
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-01
- Volume
- 193
- Pages
- 104311
- ISSN
- 0047-2727 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7687454
- OpenAlex
- W3037490325
- Cited by
- 749
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 35 · 2025: 71 · 2024: 84 · 2023: 117 · 2022: 182 · 2021: 163 · 2020: 96
- FWCI
- 119.40
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Journal of Public Economics (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, economic decline, consumer behavior, fear of infection, business closures, store traffic, essential businesses, COVID-19 mortality, policy effectiveness, restaurant closures, food retail
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
