Did the Paycheck Protection Program Hit the Target?
Open accessAbstract
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of financial intermediation and the economic effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a large and novel small business support program that was part of the initial policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the US.We use loan-level microdata for all PPP loans and high-frequency administrative employment data to present three main findings.First, banks played an important role in mediating program targeting, which helps explain why some funds initially flowed to regions that were less adversely affected by the pandemic.Second, we exploit regional heterogeneity in lending relationships and individual firm-loan matched data to study the role of banks in explaining the employment effects of the PPP.We find the short-and medium-term employment effects of the program were small compared to the program's size.Third, many firms used the loans to make non-payroll fixed payments and build up savings buffers, which can account for small employment effects and likely reflects precautionary motives in the face of heightened uncertainty.Limited targeting in terms of who was eligible likely also led to many inframarginal firms receiving funds and to a low correlation between regional PPP funding and shock severity.Our findings illustrate how business liquidity support programs affect firm behavior and local economic activity, and how policy trans-mission depends on the agents delegated to deploy it.
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Reports have shown that the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) in the USA may not effectively aid business entities and individuals in states severely affected by COVID-19 as most lenders select borrowers based on existing relationships.
“For instance, reports have shown that the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)67 in the USA may not effectively aid business entities and individuals in states severely affected by COVID-19 as most lenders (i.e. banks) select borrowers based on existing relationships.68,69”
From Social consequences of mass quarantine during epidemics: a systematic review with implications for the COVID-19 response (2020) · cites this paper as [68]
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Staples, A. J., & Krumel, T. P. (2022) · Small Business Economics · doi:10.1007/s11187-022-00717-3 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Firm Size and Employment during the Pandemic
Lin, K.-H., Aragão, C., & Dominguez, G. (2021) · Socius Sociological Research for a Dynamic World · doi:10.1177/2378023121992601 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Can the COVID Bailouts Save the Economy?Preprint
Elenev, V., Landvoigt, T., & Nieuwerburgh, S. V. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3593108 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Ownership Across Racial/Ethnic Groups and Gender
Choi, S. L., Harrell, E., & Watkins, K. (2022) · Journal of Economics Race and Policy · doi:10.1007/s41996-022-00102-y · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 CrisisPreprint
Li, L., Strahan, P. E., & Zhang, S. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3606279 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Fiscal Multipliers in the COVID19 Recession
Auerbach, A. J., Gorodnichenko, Y., McCrory, P. B., & Murphy, D. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w29531 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Unemployment insurance claims and COVID-19
Sjoquist, D. L., & Wheeler, L. A. (2020) · Journal of Economics and Business · doi:10.1016/j.jeconbus.2020.105967 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Lender Automation and Racial Disparities in Credit AccessPreprint
Howell, S. T., Kuchler, T., Snitkof, D., Stroebel, J., & Wong, J. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3939384 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Determinants for SMEs and Entrepreneurship Success Post-Pandemic
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Earnings Shocks and Stabilization During COVID-19
Larrimore, J., Mortenson, J. A., & Splinter, D. (2021) · Finance and Economics Discussion Series · doi:10.17016/feds.2021.052 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Motivating Banks to Lend? Credit Spillover Effects of the Main Street Lending ProgramPreprint
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Damaged by the Disaster: The Impact of COVID-19 on Firms in South Asia
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Fraudulent loans and the United States paycheck protection program
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State responses during the COVID-19 pandemic and their impacts on small businesses
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Ethics of U.S. government policy responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic: A utilitarianism perspective
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Home sweet home, how money laundering pollutes the real estate market: an agent based model
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Self-citationBanking Deserts and the Paycheck Protection Program
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All for one? The Paycheck Protection Program distribution disparity
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Intermediation Frictions in Debt Relief: Evidence from CARES Act Forbearance
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Bank Types, Inclusivity, and Paycheck Protection Program Lending During COVID-19
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Policy Options for Labour Market Challenges in Amsterdam and Other Dutch Cities
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Information Frictions and Firm Take-Up of Government Support: A Randomised Controlled ExperimentPreprint
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Informing Macroprudential Policy Choices Using Credit Supply and Demand DecompositionsPreprint
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Banking infrastructure and the Paycheck Protection Program during the Covid-19 pandemic
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Dealing with corporate distress, repair, and reallocation
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- Authors
- Granja, J., Makridis, C., Yannelis, C., & Zwick, E.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2020-05
- OpenAlex
- W3019912140
- Cited by
- 176
- References
- 21
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 53 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 2
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Chicago
- Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Keywords
- Paycheck Protection Program, COVID-19 pandemic, small business support, financial intermediation, bank lending, program targeting, employment effects, precautionary saving, regional heterogeneity, policy transmission
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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