Race and Ethnicity (Mis)measurement in the U.S. Criminal Justice System
Open accessAbstract
The United States criminal justice system is characterized by substantial disparities in outcomes across racial and ethnic groups.Understanding these disparities requires accurate measures of race and ethnicity of people involved in the justice system.We document how race and ethnicity are recorded by administrative agents and how operational concerns limit corrections to misreported race and ethnicity.To understand the impacts of these administrative processes, this paper uses novel linkages between person-level microdata from the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System (CJARS) and race and ethnicity composites from U.S. Census Bureau census and administrative records, mostly composed of self-reported or family-reported race/ethnicity, to quantify mismeasurement of race and ethnicity in the justice system.We find that 17 percent of misdemeanor and felony defendants and 10 percent of prison inmates have an agency-recorded label that does not concord with the composite measure, largely driven by justice agencies poorly measuring people identified in Census Bureau data as Hispanic, Asian, Pacific Islander, or American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN).Using estimated correspondences between agency-recorded and the composite race and ethnicity, we reweight federal series on imprisonment rates and show that those series, which currently rely on small survey samples to impute racial and ethnic population shares, have substantially underestimated the incarceration rates of Whites, Blacks, and AIANs.
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Administrative definitions of race and ethnicity may not align with those of scholars of race and ethnicity nor are they error-free.
“Furthermore, administrative definitions of race and ethnicity may not align with those of scholars of race and ethnicity nor are they error-free (Finlay et al. 2024;Vélez and Peguero 2023).”
From The Rise of the Carceral State: Foundations and Contours of a Rapidly Changing Criminal Legal System (2025) · cites this paper as Finlay et al. 2024
Cites
Pager, D. (2003) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/374403 · Cited by 2,840 · see citing works
Precinct or prejudice? Understanding racial disparities in New York City’s stop-and-frisk policy
Goel, S., Rao, J. M., & Shroff, R. (2016) · The Annals of Applied Statistics · doi:10.1214/15-aoas897 · Cited by 285 · see citing works
Doleac, J. L., & Hansen, B. (2020) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/705880 · Cited by 233 · see citing works
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The Rise of the Carceral State: Foundations and Contours of a Rapidly Changing Criminal Legal System
Wakefield, S., & Turney, K. (2025) · RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences · doi:10.7758/rsf.2025.11.3.04 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
- Authors
- Finlay, K., Luh, E., & Mueller-Smith, M.
- Affiliations
- United States Census Bureau (US)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Corresponding author
- Finlay, Keith
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2024-07
- OpenAlex
- W4400640262
- Cited by
- 8
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 5
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Census and Population Estimation
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Racial and Ethnic Identity Research
- Keywords
- criminal justice system, racial disparities, prisoners, defendants, incarceration rates, racial and ethnic composition, data linkage
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