The Rise of the Carceral State: Foundations and Contours of a Rapidly Changing Criminal Legal System

May combine two claims.

Work in this area is relatively clear with respect to which criminal justice policy changes increased incarceration rates, but has much less to say about what triggered those policy changes.

“Work in this area is relatively clear with respect to which criminal justice policy changes increased incarceration rates (see Bushway et al. 2025, this issue), for example, but has much less to say about what triggered those policy changes.”

• cites Bushway et al. 2025 sourceSupported

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Early works called attention to the staggeringly disparate rates of crime and incarceration.

“Early works called attention to the staggeringly disparate rates of crime and incarceration (Hagan and Peterson 1995;Tonry 2022), and increasingly sophisticated demographic estimates documented these disparities and their consequences for economic activity and labor markets (Apel and Sweeten 2010;Holzer et al. 2005;Pager 2003;Pettit 2012;Pettit and Western 2004;Western 2006;Western and Beckett 199”

• cites Hagan and Peterson 1995 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Tonry 2022 sourcePartly supported

  Section I, “Patterns of Imprisonment Use,” documents striking differences in incarceration rates across countries, including a US rate more than 12 times Finland’s. The passages discuss rising crime rates but do not establish comparably disparate crime rates. The paper was published in 2022, so it also does not fit the sentence’s description of an early work. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

There is widespread (though still debated) agreement on when the mass incarceration era began in the United States because imprisonment rates are relatively easy to measure consistently over a long period of time at the national level.

“Finally, there is widespread (though still debated) agreement on when the mass incarceration era began in the United States because imprisonment rates are relatively easy to measure consistently over a long period of time at the national level (but see Campbell 2018;Gottschalk 2006;Murakawa 2014).”

• cites Campbell 2018 sourceSupported
• cites Gottschalk 2006Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Murakawa 2014Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

Mass incarceration scholarship describes the fallout of a massive social change, but it is arguably limited with respect to how much it can identify the levers for change.

“Mass incarceration scholarship describes the fallout of such a massive social change (see Lee et al. 2025), but it is arguably limited with respect to how much it can identify the levers for change.”

• cites Lee et al. 2025 sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

Black drivers were less likely to be stopped after sunset, i.e., more likely to be stopped during daytime hours when skin color is more apparent.

“They also found that Black drivers were less likely to be stopped by police after sunset-or, put another way, more likely to be stopped during daytime hours when skin color is more readily apparent (Pierson et al. 2020).”

• cites Pierson et al. 2020 sourceSupported

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

Garland presents a view of US exceptionalism in penal state status by identifying unique features of American crime and punishment difficult to square with mass incarceration as a global phenomenon.

“Regarding the first question, Garland (2013) presents a salient example of the view of US exceptionalism in penal state status by identifying unique features of American crime and punishment that are difficult to square with mass incarceration as a global phenomenon (see also Garland 2023).”

• cites Garland 2013 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Garland 2023 sourceSupported

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Other scholars add extreme conditions in US correctional facilities, very long sentences, and long-lasting consequences from low-level contact as unique features of the American penal state.

“Other scholars might add the extreme conditions in US correctional facilities (Reiter 2016), very long sentences (Seeds 2021), and long-lasting consequences from seemingly low-level contact (Kohler-Hausmann 2013; Sugie and Turney 2017) as additional unique features of the American penal state.”

• cites Reiter 2016Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Seeds 2021 sourceSupported
• cites Kohler-Hausmann 2013 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Compelling candidates for these external features are the American political economy and its racial politics, welfare retrenchment, and winner-take-all politics.

“Compelling candidates are the American political economy and its racial politics (Beckett and Francis 2020), broad retrenchment of the welfare system (Beckett and Western 2001;Wacquant 2001Wacquant , 2009)), and the winner-take-all nature of the American political system (Garland 2023;Lacey 2010).”

• cites Beckett and Francis 2020 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Beckett and Western 2001 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Garland 2023 sourceCould not verify

  Garland is cited for the winner-take-all nature of the American political system, rather than the preceding claims about racial politics or welfare retrenchment. The ‘America’s Political Economy’ section discusses a federal polity with multiple legislative veto points, but the passages found do not characterize its politics as winner-take-all (searched: ‘winner-take-all’ and ‘winner take all politics’). (LLM, conf=0.70)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Many European scholars prefer the term penal state, presumably because it more accurately reflects common noncarceral criminal legal interventions there.

“What makes the problem worse is that, as Rubin and Phelps note, many European scholars prefer the term penal state, presumably because it more accurately reflects the common noncarceral criminal legal interventions there.”

• cites Rubin and Phelps 2017 sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

If incarceration rates indicate American exceptionalism, so too does its crime rate, especially with respect to violence.

“If incarceration rates indicate American exceptionalism, so too does its crime rate, especially with respect to violence (Clegg et al. 2024;Garland 2023).”

• cites Clegg et al. 2024 sourcePartly supported

  The Level section supports the violence-related point: using homicide to estimate serious crime, it questions whether US punishment is exceptional relative to other developed countries. But it also says police-recorded aggregate crime suggests the United States has about as much crime as other developed countries. The unqualified claim that its crime rate is exceptional therefore goes beyond the source. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites Garland 2023 sourceSupported

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Historically grounded works draw a tight criminalization throughline between colonialism, slavery, reconstruction, Jim Crow, and mass criminalization today, while other narratives center racism but combine it with unique features of the American state and political economy.

“One might contrast, for example, historically grounded works that draw a tight criminalization throughline between colonialism, slavery, reconstruction, Jim Crow, and mass criminalization today (Alexander 2012;Hinton and Cook 2021;Khan 2022;Muhammad 2019;Wacquant 2000) with narratives that center racism but combine it with unique features of the American state and political economy, including the”

• cites Alexander 2012Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Hinton and Cook 2021 sourceSupported
• cites Khan 2022 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

To deny that crime and disorder are substantial problems in the United States renders significant political and policy change vulnerable to slight upticks in the crime rate.

“On the one hand, to deny that crime and disorder are substantial problems in the United States renders significant political and policy change vulnerable to slight upticks in the crime rate (Rizer 2023;Garland 2023).”

• cites Rizer 2023 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Garland 2023 sourcePartly supported

  In “America’s Political Economy” (page unavailable), Garland describes US violence and disorder as unusually high. In “Continuing Support for Policing and Punishment” (page unavailable), he says any sign of increasing crime can prompt a return to law-and-order policies. The paper does not say that denying the scale of crime and disorder is what makes reform vulnerable to that reversal. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

May combine two claims.

Following slavery, cotton market collapses in the South and subsequent migration patterns put Black people in competition with White workers in the North.

“Following slavery, cotton market collapses in the South and subsequent migration patterns put Black people in competition with White workers in the North.”

• cites Muller 2012 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Muller 2021 sourcePartly supported

  The 'When labor demand declines' section says the boll weevil substantially reduced southern cotton yields, and 'Migration' says Black migrants were forced into competition with northern workers. But the paper does not describe a cotton market collapse as the cause of migration; it identifies northern labor shortages and immigration restrictions as important causes. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

May combine two claims.

Incarceration during this period served an exclusionary function, and the incarceration rate of Black people subsequently increased.

“Incarceration during this period served an exclusionary function, and the incarceration rate of Black people subsequently increased.”

• cites Muller 2012 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Muller 2021 sourceSupported

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In Muller's work, the relative class positions of Black and White workers, variable demand for labor, exploitation via slavery, and exclusion via racist ideologies and market competition are integrated into a compelling narrative to explain both levels of incarceration and the relative size of racial disparities in them over time.

“In this work, the relative class positions of Black and White workers, variable demand for labor, exploitation via slavery, and exclusion via racist ideologies and market competition are integrated into a compelling narrative to explain both levels of incarceration and the relative size of racial disparities in them over time.”

• cites Muller 2012 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Muller 2021 sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

What sets the United States apart is that most other wealthy democracies pursued paths of shoring up their welfare states, increasing regulation of labor markets, and enhancing rights-based protections in the postwar period, while the United States largely did not.

“What sets the United States apart is that most other wealthy democracies pursued paths of shoring up their welfare states, increasing regulation of labor markets, and enhancing rightsbased protections in the postwar period, while the United States largely did not (Garland 2023;Gottschalk 2008;Khan 2022;Thompson 2010).”

• cites Garland 2023 sourceSupported
• cites Gottschalk 2008 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Khan 2022 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

For mass incarceration scholars, carceral state narratives offer a lesson in the pitfalls of ignoring crime and fear of crime.

“For mass incarceration scholars, carceral state narratives offer a lesson in the pitfalls of ignoring crime and fear of crime (see also Sampson 2025, this issue).”

• cites Sampson 2025 sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

Engaging crime and punishment-and especially racial and ethnic disparities therein-simultaneously remains a central challenge in pursuit of reform and forms the foundations of mass criminalization in the first place.

“Engaging crime and punishment-and especially racial and ethnic disparities therein-simultaneously remains a central challenge in pursuit of reform (given the long history of racialized politics that connect Blackness with criminality) and forms the foundations of mass criminalization in the first place (Alexander 2012;Beckett and Francis 2020;Hinton and Cook 2021;Muhammad 2019).”

• cites Alexander 2012Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Beckett and Francis 2020 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Hinton and Cook 2021 sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

Many countries have racial and ethnic disparities in exposure to incarceration, reflecting the history of historically marginalized groups in each country.

“Many countries have racial and ethnic disparities in exposure to incarceration (Lacey et al. 2018;Tonry 2007Tonry , 2022)), reflecting the history of historically marginalized groups in each country.”

• cites Lacey et al. 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Tonry 2007 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Tonry 2022 sourcePartly supported

  The Abstract links racial bias and disparities in the United States to its history of race relations, and “C. Juxtaposing Punishment Philosophies and Expediency” reports racial disparities in US imprisonment. The paper also says national histories shape imprisonment practices, but the passages do not establish racial or ethnic disparities tied to historically marginalized groups across many countries. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

May combine two claims.

The penal system has long served in relation to market forces, and incarceration rates respond to shifts in labor demand in clear but complex ways.

“The penal system has long served in relation to market forces, and incarceration rates respond to shifts in labor demand in clear but complex ways (Muller 2021;Wacquant 2009;Western and Beckett 1999).”

• cites Muller 2021 sourceSupported
• cites Wacquant 2009Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Western and Beckett 1999 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Other institutions employ the logic of the carceral state, so one could reasonably conclude that the educational system, child welfare system, or health care system should also be included in any discussion of the expansion of the carceral state.

“Other institutions employ the logic of the carceral state, as described earlier, so one could also reasonably conclude that the educational system (Haskins and Jacobsen 2017), the child welfare system (Fong 2023), or the health care system (Lara-Millán 2014), for example, should also be included in any discussion of the expansion of the carceral state.”

• cites Haskins and Jacobsen 2017 sourceSupported
• cites Fong 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Lara-Millán 2014 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The relative ease of each knowledge project is demonstrated by the presence of summaries of causes versus consequences in the literature.

“The relative ease of each knowledge project is perhaps best demonstrated by the presence of summaries of causes versus consequences in the literature.”

May combine two claims.

The US criminal legal system touches more people, with greater severity, for longer periods, and with greater consequence than any other wealthy Western democracy, even as US incarceration rates have receded from their mass incarceration peak.

“As demonstrated throughout this issue, the US criminal legal system touches more people, with greater severity, for longer periods, and with greater consequence than any other wealthy Western democracy; this remains true even as US incarceration rates have receded from their mass incarceration peak.”

May combine two claims.

Reviews that articulate causes, relative to consequences, are less in conversation with one another and grounded in a much broader body of work.

“Perhaps reflecting their more interdisciplinary origins, reviews that articulate causes, relative to consequences, are less in conversation with one another and grounded in a much broader body of work.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Annual Review articles indicate the degree of interest in a topic within a field and offer some sense of the landscape of scholarship produced within and across fields.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Reviews focused on the causes of mass incarceration or the rise of the carceral state demonstrate a distinct uptick in recent years.

“Reviews focused on the causes of mass incarceration or the rise of the carceral state demonstrate a distinct uptick in recent years and presumably figure 1 represents an early stage of what may become a more prominent literature.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Annual Review articles indicate the degree of interest in a topic within a field and offer some sense of the landscape of scholarship produced within and across fields.

May combine two claims.

Reviews of the consequences of criminal legal system expansion dominate the space especially early on, and are more highly cited and more often in conversation with one another.

“Reviews of the consequences of criminal legal system expansion dominate the spaceespecially early on-and are more highly cited and more often in conversation with one another, as indicated by their relative sizing in the figure.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Annual Review articles indicate the degree of interest in a topic within a field and offer some sense of the landscape of scholarship produced within and across fields.

May combine two claims.

Imprisonment rates peaked in about 2009 at 502 per 100,000 and have been slowly but steadily declining since then.

“Imprisonment rates peaked in about 2009, when they were 502 per 100,000, and have been slowly but steadily declining since then (Carson 2023;West et al. 2011).”

• cites Carson 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites West et al. 2011Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Men are about fourteen times more likely than women to be incarcerated, as the imprisonment rate was 666 for men and 49 for women in 2022.

“For example, men are about fourteen times more likely than women to be incarcerated, as the imprisonment rate was 666 for men and 49 for women in 2022 (Carson 2023).”

• cites Carson 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The decline in crime rates is heterogeneous across demographic characteristics (including race and ethnicity, sex, and especially age) and geographic region.

“Third, the decline in crime rates is heterogeneous across demographic characteristics (including race and ethnicity, sex, and especially age) and geographic region.”

May combine two claims.

Increases in jail incarceration rates exist across all counties but are most striking for rural counties.

“These increases exist across all counties but are most striking for rural counties.”

May combine two claims.

The jail incarceration rate has decreased for all racial and ethnic groups since 1990, but the declines have been smallest for Black people (15 percent), followed by Native American people (28 percent), Asian American / Pacific Islander people (34 percent), Latinx people (47 percent), and White people (81 percent).

“The jail incarceration rate has decreased for all racial and ethnic groups since 1990, but the declines have been smallest for Black people (declining by 15 percent between 1990 and 2022), followed by Native American people (28 percent decline), Asian American / Pacific Islander people (34 percent decline), Latinx people (47 percent decline), and White people (81 percent decline).”

• cites Vera Institute of Justice 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Imprisonment rates have increased for all population groups over the past five decades, but there are stark disparities in rates across demographic characteristics.

“Imprisonment rates have increased for all population groups over the past five decades, but there are stark disparities in rates across demographic characteristics.”

May combine two claims.

Black people are more likely to be incarcerated than White people in rural counties and urban counties alike, but the inequalities are largest in rural counties.

“Black people are more likely to be incarcerated than White people in rural counties and urban counties alike, but the inequalities are largest in rural counties (Vera Institute of Justice 2023).”

• cites Vera Institute of Justice 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Though incarceration trends have been steadily declining over the past fifteen years, the contours of a prison sentence have changed.

“Though incarceration trends have been steadily declining over the past fifteen years, the contours of a prison sentence have changed.”

May combine two claims.

The imprisonment rate in 2022 was 355 out of 100,000 US residents, a 26 percent decrease from ten years prior.

“The imprisonment rate in 2022 was 355 out of 100,000 US residents (a 26 percent decrease from ten years prior; Carson 2023).”

• cites Carson 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Jail incarceration rates, like prison incarceration rates, have increased dramatically since the 1970s.

“Jail incarceration rates, like prison incarceration rates, have increased dramatically since the 1970s (see figure 5).”

May combine two claims.

The percentage decline in imprisonment rates between 2012 and 2022 is largest among Black people (34 percent decrease), followed by Hispanic people (32 percent), Asian people (31 percent), and White people (21 percent).

“The percentage decline in imprisonment rates between 2012 and 2022 is largest among Black people (with a 34 percent decrease in rates), followed by Hispanic people (32 percent decrease), Asian people (31 percent decrease), and White people (21 percent).”

• cites Carson 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The timing of when the decline in crime rates begins (and the corresponding ending of the increase in crime rates) depends on the data being used to make inferences.

“Second, the timing of when the decline in crime rates begins (and the corresponding ending of the increase in crime rates) depends on the data being used to make inferences.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Crime rates, including both violent crimes and property crimes, in the United States have declined even as rates of incarceration increased.

“First, crime rates, including both violent crimes and property crimes, in the United States have declined (even as rates of incar-ceration increased).”

May combine two claims.

Black people are more than twice as likely as Hispanic people to be incarcerated (imprisonment rates of 911 and 426 in 2022, respectively) and about five times as likely as White people to be incarcerated (911 and 188 in 2022, respectively).

“Black people are more than twice as likely as Hispanic people to be incarcerated (with imprisonment rates of 911 and 426 in 2022, respectively) and about five times as likely as White people to be incarcerated (911 and 188 in 2022, respectively).”

• cites Carson 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Rural counties had a jail incarceration rate of 55 per 100,000 in 1970, peaked at 362 in 2019, and declined slightly to 351 in 2022.

“Rural counties had a jail incarceration rate of 55 per 100,000 in 1970, peaked at 362 in 2019, and declined slightly to 351 in 2022.”

• cites Vera Institute of Justice 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Scholars who study the consequences of mass incarceration explicitly or implicitly anchor their work in the definition offered by David Garland.

“Scholars who study the consequences of mass incarceration explicitly (or implicitly) anchor their work in the definition offered by the sociologist David Garland.”

• cites Garland 2001 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Shifting focus from consequences to function shifts the explanatory burden from measuring the potential effects of identified causes to the identification of potential causes of measured effects.

“The problem, of course, is that this shifts the explanatory burden from measuring the potential effects of identified causes to the identification of potential causes of measured effects.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

There is relative uniformity in definitions of mass incarceration.

“Consider, for example, the relative uniformity in definitions of mass incarceration.”

May combine two claims.

The potential influence of mass incarceration could be seen everywhere, with direct links to changes in American family life, the maintenance and reproduction of social inequality, and all manner of societal disengagement and civic disruption.

“The potential influence of mass incarceration could now be seen everywhere, with direct links to changes in American family life (Lee and Wildeman 2021), the maintenance and reproduction of social inequality (National Research Council 2014;Pettit 2012;Wakefield and Uggen 2010;Western 2006), and all manner of societal disengagement and civic disruption (Brayne 2014;Weaver et al. 2014).”

• cites Lee and Wildeman 2021 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites National Research Council 2014Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Pettit 2012Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Moving from incarceration to other forms of criminal legal system contact-such as police contact and arrests-brought new insight into the origins of mass incarceration and renewed interest in historical change in systems of social control.

“Moving from incarceration to other forms of criminal legal system contact-such as police contact and arrests-brought new insight into the origins of mass incarceration and renewed interest in historical change in systems of social control.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Scholarship on the development of carceral states or the determinants of penal policy offers the promise of greater understanding that might potentially be deployed in service of change.

“In contrast, scholarship on the development of carceral states or the determinants of penal policy offers the promise of greater understanding that might potentially be deployed in service of change.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The scope and focus of Annual Review articles mirror how scholarship in the area developed.

“The scope and focus of Annual Review articles mirror how scholarship in the area developed.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Annual Review articles indicate the degree of interest in a topic within a field and offer some sense of the landscape of scholarship produced within and across fields.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

For many scholars, the central difference is that the United States is a carceral state rather than simply a nation with high crime or punishment rates; it is principally defined by its unrelenting commitment to finding carceral solutions to all manner of social problems.

“For many scholars, the central difference is that the United States is a carceral state rather than simply a nation with high crime or punishment rates; it is thus principally defined by its unrelenting commitment to finding carceral solutions to all manner of social problems.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

The article's contribution is a narrative about the very large gap between American rhetoric of a free, fair, and democratic country and the reality of enormously disparate contact with a very large criminal legal apparatus.

“The contribution is ultimately a narrative about the very large gap between American rhetoric of a free, fair, and democratic country and the reality of enormously disparate contact with a very large criminal legal apparatus.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

An explosion of scholarship expanded the domains under consideration, linking mass incarceration to dramatic shifts in the structure and functioning of American families and their communities.

“An explosion of scholar-ship expanded the domains under consideration, linking mass incarceration to dramatic shifts in the structure and functioning of American families (Geller et al. 2011;Turney 2015;Wakefield and Wildeman 2013) and their communities (Clear 2007;Sampson and Loeffler 2010;Simes 2018).”

• cites Geller et al. 2011Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Turney 2015 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Wakefield and Wildeman 2013Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

While there is some conceptual slippage with respect to outcomes, the potential agent of change-mass incarceration or criminalization and the demographic concentration of each-is relatively clear and commonly understood.

“Yet, importantly, while there is some conceptual slippage with respect to outcomes, the potential agent of change-mass incarceration or criminalization and the demographic concentration of each-is relatively clear and commonly understood.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

A major complication in reviewing the rise of the carceral state is deciding what counts as relevant material.

“Indeed, a major complication in reviewing the rise of the carceral state is simply deciding what counts (overarching theoretical perspectives?case studies?empirical tests of portions of broader theories?).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

Such a view has more recently been contested by scholars who argue that changes in the measurement of crime and incarceration offer different answers to the question of how much changes in the crime rate produced changes in the incarceration rate.

“Such a view has more recently been contested by scholars who argue that changes in the measurement of crime and incarceration offer different answers to the question of how much changes in the crime rate produced changes in the incarceration rate.”

• cites Enns 2016Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Lacey et al. 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Administrative definitions of race and ethnicity may not align with those of scholars of race and ethnicity nor are they error-free.

“Furthermore, administrative definitions of race and ethnicity may not align with those of scholars of race and ethnicity nor are they error-free (Finlay et al. 2024;Vélez and Peguero 2023).”

• cites Finlay et al. 2024 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Vélez and Peguero 2023 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

The boundaries of the carceral state area are relatively unclear and crosscut several disciplines.

“Given the wide variation in carceral state narratives, as we call them, we necessarily highlight some over others (and surely omit some perspectives entirely) because the boundaries of the area are relatively unclear and crosscut several disciplines.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Jail and prison incarceration share some commonalities, as both involve sustained contact with the criminal legal system, confinement, and, usually, eventual reintegration back into families and communities upon release.

“Jail and prison incarceration share some commonalities, as both involve sustained contact with the criminal legal system, confinement, and, usually, eventual reintegration back into families and communities upon release.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Prisons house people convicted of a crime who have a sentence of at least one year.

“Prisons house people convicted of a crime who have a sentence of at least one year.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Jail and prison incarceration share some key differences and more broadly reflect the diffuse nature of criminal legal administration in the United States.

“Jail and prison incarceration, though, share some key differences and more broadly reflect the diffuse na-ture of criminal legal administration in the United States.”

May combine two claims.

Crime rates in the United States have declined even as incarceration rates have risen.

“it is well known that crime rates in the United States have declined even as incarceration rates have risen (see figure 6).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Understanding trends in crime rates is critical for appreciating the growth of the carceral state in the United States, as the criminal legal system-including incarceration but also policing and supervision via probation and parole-is generally conceptualized as being responsive to crime.

“Understanding trends in crime rates is critical for appreciating the growth of the carceral state in the United States, as the criminal legal system-including incarceration but also policing and supervision via probation and parole-is generally conceptualized as being responsive to crime.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The criminal legal system is generally conceptualized as being responsive to crime.

May combine two claims.

Most work that examines incarceration trends exclusively considers prison incarceration or, less commonly, conflates jail and prison incarceration, likely an artifact of the data collection techniques and the surveys commonly used to study incarceration.

“Most work that examines incarceration trends exclusively considers prison incarceration (Carson 2023;Pettit and Western 2004) or, less commonly, conflates jail and prison incarceration (Sawyer and Wagner 2023), likely an artifact of the data collection techniques and the surveys commonly used to study incarceration.”

• cites Carson 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Pettit and Western 2004 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Sawyer and Wagner 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

The great variety of explanations and widespread conceptual disagreement across them preclude neat comparisons or strict tests of competing narratives.

“At the same time, the great variety of explanations and widespread conceptual disagreement across them preclude neat comparisons (or even better, strict tests) of competing narratives.”

May combine two claims.

Definitions of race and ethnic difference are historically situated and fundamentally local such that the meaning and subsequent measurement of racial and ethnic boundaries varies substantially both across regions and within racial and ethnic groups, further complicating comparisons across time and place.

“Last, definitions of race and ethnic difference are historically situated and fundamentally local such that the meaning (and subsequent measurement) of racial and ethnic boundaries varies substantially both across regions (Loveman 2014) and within racial and ethnic groups (Monk 2021), further complicating comparisons across time and place.”

• cites Loveman 2014 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Monk 2021 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Jails are operated at the local (city or county) level, and prisons are operated at the state or federal levels.

“Jails are operated at the local (city or county) level, and prisons are operated at the state or federal levels.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The influence of crime on the trends described earlier is too often ignored and remains contested.

“Much as scholarship on the consequences of incarceration in the mass incarceration era is relatively unconcerned with the causes of such high incarceration rates, the influence of crime on the trends described earlier is too often ignored and remains contested.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Jails house people who have not been convicted of a crime (and are awaiting adjudication), people who have been convicted but are awaiting sentencing, and people who have been convicted of a crime and have received a short (usually less than one year) sentence.

“Jails house people who have not been convicted of a crime (and are awaiting adjudication of their case via a trial or plea deal), people who have been convicted but are awaiting sentencing (and transfer to prison), and people who have been convicted of a crime and have received a short (usually less than one year) sentence.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

Large state variation in the most visible form of carceral state control (for example, incarceration) presents both challenges and opportunities for narratives that seek to define and explain the American carceral state.

“Importantly for this review and an issue to which we will return in later sections, large state variation in the most visible form of carceral state control (for example, incarceration) presents both challenges and opportunities for narratives that seek to define and explain the American carceral state.”

May combine two claims.

The racial disparity in California traffic stops is largest in evening and early morning hours, and stops of Black drivers are less likely than stops of White or Latino drivers to lead to discovery of contraband or evidence.

“The racial disparity in these traffic stops is largest in the evening and early morning hours and, importantly, stops of Black drivers are less likely than stops of White or Latino drivers to lead to the discovery of contraband or evidence (Lofstrom et al. 2022).”

• cites Lofstrom et al. 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Age is also an important predictor of resident-initiated contact: 13% of people ages 35-44 report it, compared to 12% of 45-64, 10% of 25-44, and 9% of 65+.

“Age is also an important predictor of resident-initiated contact, with 13 percent of people ages thirty-five to forty-four reporting it in the past year, compared to 12 percent of people ages forty-five to sixty-four, 10 percent of people ages twenty-five to forty-four, and 9 percent of people ages sixty-five and older (Tapp and Davis 2022).”

• cites Tapp and Davis 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Age-standardized mortality rate from fatal police violence is about 2 times higher for non-Hispanic Black people than Hispanic people and nearly 4 times higher than non-Hispanic White people.

“Data from three open-source databases (Fatal Encounters, Mapping Police Violence, and The Counted) show that the age-standardized mortality rate for non-Hispanic Black people is about two times higher than for Hispanic people and nearly four times higher than for non-Hispanic White people.”

• cites GBD 2019 Police Violence US Subnational Collaborators 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

These age-group trends are similar for White people, though overall rates are lower among White people than Black people across all age groups.

“The authors report that these trends across age groups are similar for White people (though the overall rates are lower among White people compared to Black people across all age groups).”

• cites Baumer et al. 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Age is an important predictor of police-initiated contact: about 17% of people ages 18-24 report it, compared to 12% of 25-44, 8% of 45-64, and 5% of 65+.

“About 17 percent of people ages eighteen to twenty-four report police-initiated contact in the past year, compared to 12 percent of people ages twenty-five to forty-four, 8 percent of people ages forty-five to sixty-four, and 5 percent of people ages sixty-five and older (Tapp and Davis 2022).”

• cites Tapp and Davis 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Crime rates differ across geographic regions, with local context mattering especially in recent decades.

“Additionally, crime rates differ across geographic regions of the country, with the local context mattering especially in recent decades (Baumer et al. 2018).”

• cites Baumer et al. 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The PPCS findings on racial/ethnic disparities in police-initiated contact diverge from other research on police stops, perhaps because they do not consider type of contact or invasiveness.

“These findings from the PPCS about racial and ethnic disparities in police-initiated contact diverge from other research on racial and ethnic disparities in police stops (and in criminal legal contact more generally), perhaps because they do not consider the type of police contact (traffic stops versus street stops) or the invasiveness of the stop.”

May combine two claims.

Men were more likely than women to experience police-initiated contact (11% vs 9%), while women were more likely than men to initiate contact themselves (12% vs 11%).

“Men were more likely than women to experience police-initiated contact (11 percent compared to 9 percent), whereas women were more likely than men to initiate contact themselves (12 percent compared to 11 percent; Tapp and Davis 2022).”

• cites Tapp and Davis 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In 2020, 3% of US residents ages 16+ reported contact related to a traffic accident.

“and contact related to a traffic accident (3 percent; Tapp and Davis 2022).”

• cites Tapp and Davis 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

NCVS data include self-reports of victimization, including crimes not reported to police, so they may be more inclusive.

“NCVS data, which began annually in 1973, include respondents' selfreports of being the victim of criminal activity (including crimes that are and are not reported to the police), so they may be more inclusive (Baumer et al. 2018).”

• cites Baumer et al. 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Fatal violence by police increased between 1980 and 2019 and is unequal across race and ethnicity.

“Additionally, fatal violence by the police, which increased between 1980 and 2019, is unequal across race and ethnicity (GBD 2019 Police Violence US Subnational Collaborators 2021).”

• cites GBD 2019 Police Violence US Subnational Collaborators 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

UCR data include crimes reported to police, so changes in crime rates may result from changes in victimization, reporting, or both.

“UCR data, which are the primary way that crime has been historically measured in the United States, include crimes that have been reported to the police (so changes in crime rates may result from changes in victimization, changes in reporting of victimization, or some combination of the two).”

May combine two claims.

Burglary rates increased until the early 1980s and then steadily declined through 2015.

“Trends in burglaries show similar patterns, with burglary rates increasing until the early 1980s and then steadily declining through 2015 (Baumer et al. 2018).”

• cites Baumer et al. 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

White people are more likely than Black or Hispanic people to experience police-initiated contact (10% vs 9% Black, 8% Hispanic) and resident-initiated contact (13% vs 9% for both Black and Hispanic).

“Finally, these data show that White people are more likely than people of color to experience policeinitiated contact (10 percent compared to 9 per-cent of Black people and 8 percent of Hispanic people) and, similarly, that White people are more likely to experience resident-initiated contact (13 percent compared to 9 percent for both Black and Hispanic people; Tapp and Davis 2022).”

• cites Tapp and Davis 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

In 2020, 10% of US residents ages 16+ reported police-initiated contact, compared to 11% in 2015 and 2018.

“This includes contact initiated by the police, such as being stopped while in a motor vehicle or being stopped while on the street (10 percent of those ages sixteen and older in 2020, compared to 11 percent in 2015 and 2018);”

• cites Tapp and Davis 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Street crime began increasing in the 1960s, peaked in the early 1990s, and then declined.

“it is generally accepted that street crime began increasing in the 1960s and then peaked in the early 1990s, when it started to decline (Blumstein and Rosenfeld 1998;Zimring 2010).”

• cites Blumstein and Rosenfeld 1998Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Zimring 2010Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

UCR data show increases in violent crime through the early 1990s and corresponding decreases after the early 1990s.

“The UCR data show increases in violent crime through the early 1990s (and corresponding decreases in violent crime after the early 1990s).”

May combine two claims.

The NCVS violent crime data are reliable, as prior research found UCR homicide rate data highly correlated with other mortality records.

“This suggests the reliability of the NCVS violent crime data, as prior research has found the UCR homicide rate data to be highly correlated with other mortality records (Lauritsen et al. 2016;O'Brien 1996).”

• cites Lauritsen et al. 2016 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites O'Brien 1996 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Community supervision rates rapidly increased from the 1970s until about 2007 and have been declining since.

“Community supervision rates rapidly increased from the 1970s until about 2007 and have been declining since then (Kaebel 2021).”

• cites Kaebel 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Comparisons depend on one's benchmark; even US states with the lowest incarceration rates far exceed those of many other countries.

“Even here the comparisons depend on one's benchmark; while it is the case that many US states have low incarceration rates relative to the within-country mean, even the US states with the lowest incarceration rates far exceed those of many other countries.”

May combine two claims.

The criminal legal system dramatically structures state-by-state variation across important social domains, to the extent that more punitive states have larger felony conviction populations and convictions are tied to voting and government assistance.

“To the extent that more punitive states have larger populations with a felony conviction and such convictions are tied to things like the ability to vote (Uggen and Manza 2002;Weaver and Lerman 2010) or accessing various forms of government assistance (Mauer and Chesney-Lind 2002), the criminal legal system dramatically structures state-by-state variation across a host of important social domains.”

• cites Uggen and Manza 2002 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Weaver and Lerman 2010 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Mauer and Chesney-Lind 2002Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The death penalty is available at the federal level in the US, but more often deployed by a small number of states, and many states have banned it.

“While the death penalty is an available penalty at the federal level in the United States, it is more often deployed by a small number of states, and many states have banned it.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

This view simply describes the US criminal legal system without reference to penal authority and stops short of adequately describing a carceral state.

“This view, though, simply describes the US criminal legal system without reference to penal authority and stops short of adequately describing a carceral state.”

May combine two claims.

Probation has been seen as widening contact with the criminal legal system, often used as an alternative to incarceration and a mechanism for punishing misdemeanor/lower-level offenses.

“Probation, especially, has been seen as a way of widening who comes into contact with the criminal legal system, as probation is often used as an alternative to incarceration and a mechanism for punishing those charged with misdemeanors or lower-level offenses who were never at risk of receiving a prison sentence (Phelps 2020).”

• cites Phelps 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The trends outlined earlier detail the core features of mass criminalization in the US.

“The trends outlined earlier detail the core features of the mass criminalization that characterizes the United States.”

May combine two claims.

About 15% of all adults ages 24-32 have been on probation, but nearly half (46%) of Black men in this age range without a high school diploma have experienced probation.

“Research shows that about 15 percent of all adults ages twenty-four to thirty-two have been on probation but that nearly half (46 percent) of all Black men in this age range without a high school diploma have experienced probation.”

• cites Lerman and Weaver 2014 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Analyses of the penal state are easier to reduce to clear, measurable, and testable concepts.

“In this review, we largely conclude that analyses of the penal state-or the analysis of state capacity vis-à-vis penal policy and practiceare easier to reduce to clear, measurable, and testable concepts.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

A clear and widely agreed-upon definition of a carceral state does not exist in the literature.

“However, a clear and widely agreed-upon definition of a carceral state does not exist in the literature.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Carceral state scholarship is in broad agreement that features producing the US criminal legal system are found outside that system, though narratives differ on which features are most important.

“Recall that carceral state scholarship is in broad agreement that the features that produce the sort of criminal legal system represented in the United States are found outside of that system, though narratives differ with respect to what features are considered most important.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Definitions of carceral/penal states range from a narrow focus on prisons and jails to a broader set of criminal legal agencies including parole and probation.

“The definitions in table 1 range from a narrow focus on agencies that incarcerate-prisons and jailsto a broader set of criminal legal agencies, including parole and probation.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Carceral state narratives focused on extreme features of the criminal legal system would lead to the position that the US stands alone in carceral state status.

“In general, carceral state narratives focused on extreme features of the criminal legal system would lead one to the position that the United States stands alone with respect to its carceral state status (Lacey 2010).”

• cites Lacey 2010Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

In 2020, nearly 4 million US adults were under community supervision, a more than 20% decline from the 2007 peak of more than 5.1 million.

“In 2020, nearly four million US adults were under community supervision, a more than 20 percent decline from the peak in 2007, when more than 5.1 million US adults were under community supervision (Glaze and Bonczar 2011;Kaebel 2021).”

• cites Glaze and Bonczar 2011Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Kaebel 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

It is often unclear what is included and excluded in the carceral part of the carceral state description.

“It is often unclear what is included and excluded in the carceral part of the carceral state description; as Aisha Khan (2022, 54) explains in the Annual Review of Anthropology:”

• cites Khan 2022 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

A vision of the US as a carceral state is most intellectually satisfying at the nation level, where the US emerges as extreme on many metrics.

“A vision of the United States as a carceral state tends to be the most intellectually satisfying when one makes criminal legal system comparisons at the nation level; in these comparisons, the United States emerges as extreme on many metrics, and other institutions take center stage.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Garland notes the American system is defined by use of death penalty long after abolished elsewhere, large populations under community supervision, and volume of collateral consequences of felony conviction.

“In addition to high rates of incarceration and extreme racial and ethnic disproportionality in its use (both are observed elsewhere), Garland notes that the American system is defined by its use of the death penalty long after it was abolished elsewhere, the large populations of US residents under correctional supervision in their communities, and the sheer volume of formal and informal collateral”

• cites Garland 2013 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

Narratives of the rise of the carceral state differ dramatically in emphasis.

“Given these differences, it is unsurprising that narratives of the rise of the carceral state differ dramatically in emphasis.”

May combine two claims.

There is state-level variation in community supervision punitiveness, and this variation does not necessarily track state-level variation in incarceration.

“Additionally, there is state-level variation, with some states having more punitive community supervision than others (and, interestingly, this state-level variation in supervision does not necessarily track onto state-level variation in incarceration (Phelps 2017).”

• cites Phelps 2017Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

Such penal state conceptualizations risk missing the forest for the trees and may be too narrow to be of great use.

“The trade-off, of course, is that such conceptualizations run the risk of missing the proverbial forest for the trees and may be rendered too narrow to be of great use.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Some definitions include adjacent agencies and institutions (e.g., child welfare, schools, hospitals) that aid criminal legal system goals or adopt carceral logics.

“Still others move well beyond the criminal legal system field to include adjacent agencies and institutions that aid criminal legal system goals, steer people toward criminal legal system contact, or adopt similar carceral logics.”

May combine two claims.

Sentencing practices and collateral consequences vary substantially across states.

“Sentencing practices and collateral consequences also vary substantially across states.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

A broadened conception of carceral state risks seeing it everywhere and rendering the concept meaningless.

“A broadened conception of the carceral state runs the risk of seeing it everywhere and rendering the concept meaningless in the process.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

There is little agreement on what is included or excluded from the term carceral state, and no definition approaches Garland's description of mass incarceration.

“There is certainly no definition of a carceral state that approaches the Garland description of mass incarceration discussed earlier and, making matters worse, little agreement on what is included or excluded from the term.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

Whether the US stands alone as a carceral state depends on theoretical orientation and available comparisons.

“Answering the second question-whether the United States stands alone as a carceral state-depends on both theoretical orientation and the complexities imposed by available comparisons.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

There is little agreement on what is included and excluded in the carceral state analytical field, and several definitions include overlapping domains, actors, or organizations.

“As shown in the table and confirmed in our own review of the literature, there is little agreement on what is included and excluded in the carceral state analytical field, and several definitions include overlapping domains, actors, or organizations.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Conceptual ambiguity makes it difficult to answer seemingly basic questions.

“Conceptual ambiguity as described earlier makes it difficult to answer seemingly basic questions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Scholars differ dramatically in how they define the penal or carceral state.

“As we hinted at earlier and describe in more detail later, scholars differ (often dramat-ically) in how they define the penal or, more recently, carceral state.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Dan Berger distinguishes penal and carceral states by arguing carceral state is broader, encompassing more institutions and a longer timescale than penal state.

“In contrast, historian Dan Berger (2019) distinguishes more clearly between penal and carceral states by arguing that carceral state is the broader term, encompassing more institutions and a longer timescale than the more narrow term penal state (see also Foucault 1995;Hernández et al. 2015;Simon 2007a).”

• cites Berger 2019 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Narratives in carceral state space agree that foundations of mass incarceration are found outside the penal system proper, so penal state frame may be too narrow.

“Narratives in the carceral state space, for example, are in relative agreement that the foundations of mass incarceration are found outside (often far outside) the penal system proper, so the many variants of the penal state frame may prove too narrow.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The carceral state literature is largely grounded in the notion that the United States represents an ideal type of a carceral state, though analysts differ on what features make this so.

“The first question is more easily answered than the second; the carceral state literature is largely grounded in the notion that the United States represents an ideal type of a carceral state, though analysts largely differ on what features of it make this so (a point we return to later).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

A common theme of carceral state arguments is that they reframe the most proximate causes of mass incarceration as a symptom of earlier events or other underlying causes.

“As we will discuss, a common theme of carceral state arguments is that they reframe the most proximate causes of mass incarceration as a symptom of earlier events or other underlying causes.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Wacquant, Alexander, Gottshalk, and Murakawa view crime as less relevant for understanding current carceral practices, highlight how fear of crime rather than actual crime rates drives punitive policy, or worry about how engaging crime influences support for criminal legal system reform.

“These views can be contrasted with those of Wacquant (2009;2000) as well as with those of Michelle Alexander (2012), Marie Gottshalk (2006), andNaomi Murakawa (2019), who view crime as less relevant for understanding current carceral practices, highlight how fear of crime rather than actual crime rates drives punitive policy, or worry about how engaging crime-in particular racial and ethnic”

• cites Wacquant 2009Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Alexander 2012Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Gottshalk 2006Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

High rates of crime and punishment are difficult to tackle simultaneously without making racial disparities in punishment worse because mass incarceration resulted from racialized politics that developed partially in response to increases in crime or fear of crime.

“It also explains why high rates of crime and punishment are so difficult to tackle simultaneously without making racial disparities in punishment worse; this is so because mass incarceration resulted from the racialized politics that developed partially in response to increases in crime (or fear of crime).”

May combine two claims.

No Western democracy has reached the high levels of criminal legal interventions of the US, but the pathway pursued in the US is still found in other places.

“While no Western democracy has reached the high levels of criminal legal system interventions of the United States, the pathway pursued in the United States is still found in other places.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

The narratives of carceral state origins described in the review are often broadly complementary despite scholarly disagreements.

“While scholars in the carceral state space have disagreements about the importance of, say, crime rates, neoliberalism, or the role of social liberals in the advent of the prison boom, the narratives we will describe are often broadly complementary.”

May combine two claims.

Perspectives emphasizing historical power relations lend credence to the idea that the US extreme exists along a broader continuum but offer different peers and explanatory factors.

“Perspectives that emphasize historical power relations in the United States with respect to its repressive criminal legal system lend credence to the idea that the US extreme exists along a broader continuum but serve up an altogether different set of potential peers and explanatory factors.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Figuring out which policy changes were most consequential for increasing the incarceration rate is no easy task.

“Increases in the incarceration rate are fairly transparently linked to sentencing policy changes, and figuring out which policy changes were most consequential is no easy task (Blumstein and Beck 1999;Bushway 2011;National Research Council 2014;Neal and Armin 2023;Raphael and Stoll 2009;Spelman 2009).”

• cites Blumstein and Beck 1999 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Bushway 2011 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites National Research Council 2014Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Incarceration rates track violent crime rates more closely than previously recognized.

“Nicola Lacey and colleagues point to more recent analyses showing that incarceration rates track violent crime rates more closely than previously recognized (2018,200) and highlight the work of political scientist Peter K. Enns (2016), who argues that political elites did not impose concerns about crime on ordinary citizens merely to achieve political ends; rather, such concerns were widely shared”

• cites Lacey et al. 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

To the degree that the US is especially unregulated, decentralized, and unsupportive of labor, we might expect extreme incarceration rates there but observe similar trajectories in other nations sharing these characteristics in kind but not degree.

“Here again, the interpretation depends on one's benchmark; to the degree that the United States is especially unregulated, especially decentralized, and especially unsupportive of labor, we might expect extreme incarceration rates there but observe similar trajectories in other nations that share these characteristics in kind but not necessarily degree.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

Others argue that crime is central to understanding the determinants of penal policy and mass incarceration, though for different reasons than those Garland raises.

“Others argue that crime is central to understanding the determinants of penal policy and mass incarceration, though for different reasons than those Garland raises (Lacey et al. 2018).”

• cites Lacey et al. 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).