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Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks

Open access
Easterly, William, Kremer, Michael, Pritchett, Lant, Summers, Lawrence·1993·National Bureau of Economic Research

Abstract

Much of the new growth literature stresses countly characteristics, such as education levels or political stability, as the dominant determinant of growth.However, growth rates are highly unstable over time, with a correlation across decades of .1 to .3, while country characteristics are stable, with cross-decade correlations of .6 to .9. Shocks, especially those to terms of trade, play a large role in explaining variance in growth.These findings suggest either that shocks are important relative to country characteristics in determining long-run growth, or that worldwide technological change determines long-run growth while country characteristics determine relative income levels.

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Metadata

Authors
Easterly, W., Kremer, M., Pritchett, L., & Summers, L.
Venue
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published
1993-09
OpenAlex
W1605609733
Cited by
672
References
6
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
green

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.3386/w4474
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Easterly, W., Kremer, M., Pritchett, L., & Summers, L. (1993). Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w4474

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