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Disagreement about Inflation Expectations
Open accessAbstract
Analyzing 50 years of inflation expectations data from several sources, we document substantial disagreement among both consumers and professional economists about expected future inflation.Moreover, this disagreement shows substantial variation through time, moving with inflation, the absolute value of the change in inflation, and relative price variability.We argue that a satisfactory model of economic dynamics must speak to these important business cycle moments.Noting that most macroeconomic models do not endogenously generate disagreement, we show that a simple "sticky-information" model broadly matches many of these facts.Moreover, the sticky-information model is consistent with other observed departures of inflation expectations from full rationality, including autocorrelated forecast errors and insufficient sensitivity to recent macroeconomic news.
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Robert, L. (1973) · American Economic Review · Cited by 2,413
Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
Mankiw, N. G., & Reis, R. (2002) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355302320935034 · Cited by 2,292
Self-citationLearning and Expectations in Macroeconomics
Evans, G. W., & Honkapohja, S. (2001) · Princeton University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9781400824267 · Cited by 2,076
A Rational Route to Randomness
Brock, W. A., & Hommes, C. H. (1997) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/2171879 · Cited by 1,711
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Athanasios Orphanides, A. (2001) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.91.4.964 · Cited by 1,315
Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters
Carroll, C. D. (2003) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/00335530360535207 · Cited by 1,169
The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time
Athanasios Orphanides, A., & van Norden, S. (2002) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/003465302760556422 · Cited by 910
Cited by
Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset
Wright, J. H. (2011) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.101.4.1514 · Cited by 502
The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab
Hommes, C. (2011) · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control · doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2010.10.003 · Cited by 434
Inflation expectations as a policy tool?
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., & Pedemonte, M. (2020) · Journal of International Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103297 · Cited by 382
How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?
Roth, C., & Wohlfart, J. (2020) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_00867 · Cited by 266
Narratives About the Macroeconomy
Andre, P., Haaland, I., Roth, C., & Wohlfart, J. (2023) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4506321 · Cited by 100
Metadata
- Authors
- Mankiw, N. G., Reis, R., & Wolfers, J.
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2003-06
- OpenAlex
- W2171720247
- Cited by
- 586
- References
- 22
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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