The DOI matches its Crossref record; 65 of the 65 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?
Open accessAbstract
Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances, and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive but understand how the economy works.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements
Muth, J. F. (1961) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1909635 · Cited by 5,594
The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence
Lusardi, A., & Mitchell, O. S. (2014) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.52.1.5 · Cited by 4,698
Implications of rational inattention
Sims, C. A. (2003) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/s0304-3932(03)00029-1 · Cited by 3,822
(2010) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1111/(issn)1467-937x · Cited by 2,966
Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?
Malmendier, U., & Nagel, S. (2011) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjq004 · Cited by 2,480
Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters
Carroll, C. D. (2003) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/00335530360535207 · Cited by 1,169
Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20110306 · Cited by 1,140
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
Greenwood, R., & Shleifer, A. (2014) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hht082 · Cited by 1,130
How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments
Kuziemko, I., Norton, M. I., Saez, E., & Stantcheva, S. (2015) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20130360 · Cited by 1,067
Learning from Inflation Experiences *
Malmendier, U., & Nagel, S. (2016) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjv037 · Cited by 1,063
Cited by
Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2022) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/718982 · Cited by 518
Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations
D’Acunto, F., Malmendier, U., Ospina, J., & Weber, M. (2021) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/713192 · Cited by 363
Anticipation of COVID-19 vaccines reduces willingness to socially distance
Andersson, O., Campos-Mercade, P., Meier, A. N., & Wengström, E. (2021) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102530 · Cited by 97
Metadata
- Authors
- Roth, C., & Wohlfart, J.
- Venue
- The Review of Economics and Statistics
- Publisher
- MIT Press - Journals
- Published
- 2020-10
- Volume
- 102
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 731-748
- ISSN
- 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9142
- OpenAlex
- W2753024918
- Cited by
- 266
- References
- 65
- FWCI
- 23.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1162/rest_a_00867
- The paper
- Roth, C., & Wohlfart, J. (2020). How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? The Review of Economics and Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00867
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
