Adapting Technology Learning Curves for Prospective Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessments of Emerging Carbon Capture and Utilization Pathways
Open accessAbstract
Comparisons of emerging carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies with equivalent incumbent technologies are necessary to support technology developers and to help policy-makers design appropriate long-term incentives to mitigate climate change through the deployment of CCU. In particular, early-stage CCU technologies must prove their economic viability and environmental reduction potential compared to already-deployed technologies. These comparisons can be misleading, as emerging technologies typically experience a drastic increase in performance and decrease in cost and greenhouse gas emissions as they develop from research to mass-market deployment due to various forms of learning. These changes complicate the interpretation of early techno-economic assessments (TEAs) and life cycle assessments (LCAs) of emerging CCU technologies. The effects of learning over time or cumulative production themselves can be quantitatively described using technology learning curves (TLCs). While learning curve approaches have been developed for various technologies, a harmonized methodology for using TLCs in TEA and LCA for CCU in particular is required. To address this, we describe a methodology that incorporates TLCs into TEA and LCA to forecast the environmental and economic performance of emerging CCU technologies. This methodology is based on both an evaluation of the state of the art of learning curve assessment and a literature review of TLC approaches developed in various manufacturing and energy generation sectors. Additionally, we demonstrate how to implement this methodology using a case study on a CO 2 mineralization pathway. Finally, commentary is provided on how researchers, technology developers, and LCA and TEA practitioners can advance the use of TLCs to allow for consistent, high-resolution modeling of technological learning for CCU going forward and enable holistic assessments and fairer comparisons with other climate technologies.
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More optimistic forecast can be achieved by deducting the price of CO2 emission allowances.
“Moreover, more optimistic forecast can be achieved by deducting the price of CO 2 emission allowances (ca.97 € per metric ton of CO 2 in the European Union emission trading system 166 ).”
From Mechanisms of Mg carbonates precipitation and implications for CO <sub>2</sub> capture and utilization/storage (2023) · cites this paper as [166]
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- Authors
- Faber, G., Ruttinger, A., Strunge, T., Langhorst, T., Zimmermann, A., van der Hulst, M., Bensebaa, F., Moni, S., & Tao, L.
- Affiliations
- University of Michigan (US)
- National Research Council Canada (CA)
- Heriot-Watt University (GB)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Technische Universität Berlin (DE)
- National Energy Technology Laboratory (US)
- National Laboratory of the Rockies (US)
- Corresponding author
- Faber, Grant
- ORCID
- Venue
- Frontiers in Climate
- Publisher
- Frontiers Media SA
- Published
- 2022-04-14
- Volume
- 4
- ISSN
- 2624-9553 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4223910759
- Cited by
- 55
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 1
- FWCI
- 3.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Frontiers in Climate (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- NPARC (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Publication Database IASS (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (DE‐FE0025912)
- University of Michigan
- European Commission
- University of Sheffield
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (016.Vici.170.190)
- Technische Universität Berlin
- RWTH Aachen University
- National Energy Technology Laboratory (DE-FE0025912)
- Argonne National Laboratory
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory
- EIT Climate-KIC
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanical Engineering › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Technology Assessment and Management
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- technology learning curves, carbon capture and utilization, techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, CO2 mineralization, emerging technologies, economic feasibility, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change mitigation, technology deployment
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