An impending geomagnetic transition? Hints from the past
Open accessAbstract
The rapid decrease of the geomagnetic field intensity in the last centuries has led to speculations that an attempt to a reversal or an excursion might be under way. Here we investigate this hypothesis by examining past records of geomagnetic field intensity obtained from sedimentary cores and from the study of cosmogenic nuclides. The selected records describe geomagnetic changes with an unprecedented temporal resolution between 20 and 75 kyr B.P. We find that some aspects of the present-day geomagnetic field have some similarities with those documented for the Laschamp excursion 41 kyr ago. Under the assumption that the dynamo processes for an eventual future reversal or excursion would be similar to those of the Laschamp excursion, we tentatively suggest that, whilst irreversible processes that will drive the geodynamo into a polarity change may have already started, a reversal or an excursion should not be expected before 500 to 1000 years.
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The IntCal20 Δ14C curve concurs better with the amplitude of changes in the paleomagnetic and 10Be records than IntCal13 and also agrees well with the independently dated Campagnian Ignimbrite.
“The IntCal20 Δ 14 C curve (Figure 5) concurs better with the amplitude of changes in the paleomagnetic and 10 Be records than IntCal13 (Laj et al. 2014; Laj and Kissel 2015; Muscheler et al. 2020 in this issue) and also agrees well with the independently dated Campagnian Ignimbrite (Giaccio et al. 2017).”
From The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0–55 cal kBP) (2020) · cites this paper as Laj and Kissel 2015
The Main Trends section reports agreement between paleomagnetic and Greenland 10Be records, but it does not compare either record with an IntCal Δ14C curve. Searches for IntCal20, IntCal13, Δ14C, and the Campagnian Ignimbrite found no passage addressing the claimed comparison. The Ignimbrite clause is separately cited to Giaccio et al. (2017), not to this source. (LLM, conf=0.78)
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“…through synchronizing fluctuations within their calendar age uncertainty; (Buizert et al. 2015), b) GlOPIS-75 paleomagnetic stack (Laj et al. 2014; Laj and Kissel 2015), c) 10 Be flux (Muscheler et al. 2005). a – c on GICC05 timescale (Svensson et al. 2008) adjusted to 0 BP = 1950 AD, and d)…”
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Palaeosecular variations of the geomagnetic field in Africa during the Holocene: a review
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South Atlantic Anomaly Evolution Seen by the Proton Flux
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Variability of Millennial‐Scale Trends in the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole
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Predictability of Magnetic Field Reversals
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- Authors
- Laj, C., & Kissel, C.
- Affiliations
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Laj, Carlo
- ORCID
- Kissel, Catherine
- Venue
- Frontiers in Earth Science
- Publisher
- Frontiers Media SA
- Published
- 2015-10-07
- Volume
- 3
- ISSN
- 2296-6463 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1893170904
- Cited by
- 57
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 2.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Frontiers in Earth Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Oskar-Bordeaux (Universite de Bordeaux) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geology › Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Keywords
- geomagnetic field intensity, magnetic field reversal, geomagnetic excursions, Laschamp excursion, geodynamo, paleomagnetic intensity, sediment core, cosmogenic nuclides
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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