The DOI matches its Crossref record; 306 of the 308 references it cites were found in a registry or an index, and 2 are not checked yet.
The changing face of the Arctic: four decades of greening and implications for tundra ecosystems
Open accessAbstract
Arctic landscapes occupy a nexus of environmental change processes, globally significant soil carbon stores, wildlife populations, and subsistence-based human societies. In response to rapid climate warming, tundra ecosystems are experiencing widespread changes to vegetation and underlying permafrost, coupled with an array of ecological disturbances that are expected to intensify in the future. Declines in the extent of the cryosphere on land (permafrost and seasonal snow) and offshore (sea-ice) raise the question of whether and for how long warmer portions of the Low Arctic will fit established concepts of “what is Arctic,” given the influence the cryosphere has historically had on tundra ecosystem structure and function. The era of spaceborne observation of circumpolar tundra greenness, in the form of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), has entered its fifth decade and provides foundational information concerning ecosystem conditions and responses to climatic trends, variability, ecological disturbance, and successional processes. Here we review the evolving story of Arctic greening, and synthesize long-term spaceborne records of NDVI, climatic data, field observations, and the knowledge base of Arctic residents to place the last four decades of Arctic environmental change in context, and establish expectations and research priorities for the coming decade. Greenness dynamics display high spatio-temporal variability, reflecting complex interactions of climatic warming and variability, landscape history, ecological disturbance, and other factors. Nonetheless, long-term increases in NDVI—commonly known as “the greening of the Arctic”—remain prominent across large areas in all available long-term spaceborne datasets and align with long-term shifts in vegetation structure documented in disparate Arctic regions. Common shifts reported from the Low Arctic, such as shrubification, generally portend declines in floristic diversity, and shifts in fauna that favor boreal forest species. Despite lingering uncertainties regarding trend attribution and sources of interannual variability, the sequence of record-high circumpolar tundra greenness values observed since 2020 provides strong evidence that Arctic tundra ecosystems have entered a state without historic precedent on timescales approaching a millennium.
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“The latter two records generally display less interannual variability in MaxNDVI than the legacy GIMMS-3g+ dataset, likely reflecting their higher spatial resolution and improved calibration (Frost et al. 2025).”
From NOAA Arctic Report Card 2025: Tundra Greenness (2025) · cites this paper as Frost et al. 2025
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“Increases in the abundance, distribution, and height of Arctic shrubs are a major component of Arctic greening (Frost et al. 2025).”
From NOAA Arctic Report Card 2025: Tundra Greenness (2025) · cites this paper as Frost et al. 2025
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Colesie, C., Gray, A. M., Walshaw, C. V., Bokhorst, S., Kerby, J. T., Jawak, S. D., Sancho, L. G., & Convey, P. (2025) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.70294 · Cited by 20
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Metadata
- Authors
- Frost, G. V., Bhatt, U. S., Macander, M. J., Berner, L. T., Walker, D. A., Raynolds, M. K., Magnússon, R. Í., Bartsch, A., Bjerke, J. W., Epstein, H. E., Forbes, B. C., Goetz, S. J., Hoy, E. E., Karlsen, S. R., Kumpula, T., Lantz, T. C., Lara, M. J., López-Blanco, E., Montesano, P. M., Neigh, C. S. R., Nitze, I., Orndahl, K. M., Park, T., Phoenix, G. K., Rocha, A. V., Rogers, B. M., Schaepman-Strub, G., Tømmervik, H., Verdonen, M., Veremeeva, A., Virkkala, A.-M., & Waigl, C. F.
- Affiliations
- Alaska Biological Research (United States) (US)
- University of Alaska Fairbanks (US)
- Northern Arizona University (US)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- b.geos (AT)
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NO)
- University of Virginia (US)
- University of Lapland (FI)
- Goddard Space Flight Center (US)
- NORCE Research AS (NO)
- University of Eastern Finland (FI)
- University of Victoria (CA)
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE)
- Ames Research Center (US)
- University of Sheffield (GB)
- University of Notre Dame (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Agricultural University of Iceland (IS)
- Corresponding author
- Frost, Gerald V.
- ORCID
- Frost, Gerald V.
- Bhatt, Uma S.
- Macander, Matthew J.
- Berner, Logan T.
- Walker, Donald A.
- Raynolds, Martha K.
- Magnússon, Rúna Í.
- Bjerke, Jarle W.
- Epstein, Howard E.
- Forbes, Bruce C.
- Goetz, Scott J.
- Hoy, Elizabeth E.
- Karlsen, Stein R.
- Kumpula, Timo
- Lantz, Trevor C.
- Lara, Mark J.
- Montesano, Paul M.
- Neigh, Christopher S. R.
- Nitze, Ingmar
- Orndahl, Kathleen M.
- Park, Taejin
- Phoenix, Gareth K.
- Rocha, Adrian V.
- Rogers, Brendan M.
- Tømmervik, Hans
- Verdonen, Mariana
- Veremeeva, Alexandra
- Virkkala, Anna-Maria
- Waigl, Christine F.
- Venue
- Frontiers in Environmental Science
- Publisher
- Frontiers Media SA
- Published
- 2025-04-10
- Volume
- 13
- ISSN
- 2296-665X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4409329826
- Cited by
- 51
- References
- 308
- Citations by year
- 2026: 39 · 2025: 12
- FWCI
- 22.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Frontiers in Environmental Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
- Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC22K1256)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Climate change and permafrost
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Polar Research and Ecology
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Keywords
- Arctic greening, tundra ecosystems, NDVI, global warming, permafrost thaw, shrubification, vegetation change, sea ice decline, Low Arctic, long-term satellite records, floristic diversity, environmental disturbance, indigenous knowledge
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