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Impacts of Drought on Maize and Soybean Production in Northeast China During the Past Five Decades
Open accessAbstract
Climate change has a distinct impact on agriculture in China, particularly in the northeast, a key agriculture area sensitive to extreme hydroclimate events. Using monthly climate and agriculture data, the influence of drought on maize and soybean yields—two of the main crops in the region—in northeast China since 1961 to 2017 were investigated. The results showed that the temperature in the growing season increased by 1.0 °C from the period 1998–2017 to the period 1961–1980, while the annual precipitation decreased slightly. However, precipitation trends varied throughout the growing season (May–September), increasing slightly in May and June, but decreasing in July, August and September, associated with the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon. Consequently, the annual and growing season drought frequency increased by 15%, and 25%, respectively, in the period 1998–2017 relative to the period 1961–1980. The highest drought frequency (55%) was observed in September. At the same time, the drought intensity during the growing season increased by 7.8%. The increasing frequency and intensity of drought had negative influences on the two crops. During moderate drought years in the period 1961–2017, 3.2% and 10.4% of the provincial maize and soybean yields were lost, respectively. However, during more severe drought years, losses doubled for soybean (21.8%), but increased more than four-fold for maize (14.0%). Moreover, in comparison to the period 1961–1980, a higher proportion of the yields were lost in the period 1998–2017, particularly for maize, which increased by 15% (increase for soybean was 2.4%). This change largely depends on increasing droughts in August and September, when both crops are in their filling stages. The impact of drought on maize and soybean production was different during different growth stages, where a strong relationship was noted between drought and yield loss of soybean in its filling stage. Given the sensitivity of maize and soybean yields in northeast China to drought, and the observed production trends, climate change will likely have significant negative impacts on productivity in the future.
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“The 2013 IPCC report forecasts that, by the late twenty-first century, intense heat and dryness will affect countries extending across North Africa into Egypt and Sudan and northeast to Saudi Arabia, the Levant including Syria, Iraq, and Iran [20], to parts of India and China in Asia, and across the Southern United States and Mexico [21–23].”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [21]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Wang, C., Linderholm, H. W., Song, Y., Wang, F., Liu, Y., Tian, J., Xu, J., Song, Y., & Ren, G.
- Affiliations
- Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CN)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- China Meteorological Administration (CN)
- Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Wang, Chunyi
- Venue
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Published
- 2020-04-03
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 2459
- ISSN
- 1660-4601 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7177764
- OpenAlex
- W3014444754
- Cited by
- 147
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 4
- FWCI
- 14.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- dx.doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Multimedialen Archiv und Publikationsserver der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Apollo (cc-by)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Keywords
- drought, maize yield, soybean yield, crop yield loss, climate change impacts on agriculture, growing season precipitation, East Asian summer monsoon, drought frequency and intensity, crop growth stages, Northeast China
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, China, Zea mays, Glycine max, Droughts, Climate Change
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