The DOI matches its Crossref record; 28 of the 28 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Effect of Family Fertility Support Policies on Fertility, Their Contribution, and Policy Pathways to Fertility Improvement in OECD Countries
Open accessAbstract
The cost of childbirth has been confirmed as a vital factor in families’ fertility decision-making, and family welfare policies are capable of compensating for the increase in household living expenses regarding childbirth, such that the country’s fertility situation can be optimized. In this study, the fertility promotion effects of family welfare policies in OECD(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries are investigated through regression analysis, grey correlation (GRA), and the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis fsQCA method. As indicated by the results: (1) Family welfare policies notably boost fertility, and the boosting effect is long-lasting. However, this boost will be weakened in countries where fertility rates remain below 1.5. (2) The contribution of welfare policy measures to the fertility-promotion effect varies by country. The contribution of cash benefits is highest in over half of the countries worldwide, the contribution of relevant services and in-kind expenditure is highest in 29% of the countries, and that of tax incentive expenditure is highest in 14% of the countries. (3) The policy mix to boost fertility also varies according to the social context, with three policy groups derived using the fsQCA method. To be specific, the core antecedent conditions comprise cash benefits, relevant services, and in-kind expenditure. On that basis, China should pay attention to the following three points when formulating family welfare policies to tackle their demographic challenges. First, a system of family welfare policies should be developed as early as possible in the context of increasingly severe demographic issues since the incentive effect of family welfare policies will be weakened in countries with chronically low fertility rates. Second, the effects of improvements vary by country, and China should comprehensively consider its national circumstances when formulating and dynamically adjusting the mix of government fertility support policies in accordance with its social development. Third, employment is the main means of securing family income and takes on critical significance to sustaining families. Unemployment exerts a significant disincentive effect, such that it is imperative to reduce youth unemployment and enhance the quality of youth employment. On that basis, the disincentive effect of unemployment on fertility can be reduced.
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“the recent crossnational analysis by Zhang et al. (2023) estimates that a one percentage point increase in public expenditures on family benefits (as a percentage of the GDP) would result in an increase in the TFR of 0.069 children per woman.”
From Family Policies in Low Fertility Countries: Evidence and Reflections (2025) · cites this paper as Zhang et al. (2023)
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Citations
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Background
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Cited by
Family Policies in Low Fertility Countries: Evidence and Reflections
Gauthier, A. H., & Gietel‐Basten, S. (2025) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/padr.12691 · Cited by 45
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“…(i) the effect may be different due to disparities in unemployment status, child-rearing ratios in couples, and childcare burdens across countries (Zhang et al. , 2023); (ii) an extension of the policy to childless families could be a great burden to the government (in our estimation, it was 6.4…”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Zhang, T.-T., Cai, X.-Y., Shi, X.-H., Zhu, W., & Shan, S.-N.
- Affiliations
- School of Public Finance and Taxation, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
- Capital University of Economics and Business (CN)
- Shanxi Normal University (CN)
- Institute of Industrial and Economic Policy, Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone (BDA), Beijing 100070, China
- School of Business, Shenyang University, Shenyang 110064, China
- Venue
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Published
- 2023-03-08
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 4790
- ISSN
- 1660-4601 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10049131
- OpenAlex
- W4323664921
- Cited by
- 37
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 1
- FWCI
- 15.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Social Science Fund Project of Liaoning Province (L20BZZ006)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social Policies and Family
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Keywords
- family welfare policy, fertility rate, low fertility, cash benefits, in-kind benefits, tax incentives, policy mix, youth unemployment, OECD countries
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Demography, Developing Countries, Economics, Fertility, Humans, Population Dynamics, Public Policy, Socioeconomic Factors, Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Effect of Family Fertility Support Policies on Fertility, Their Contribution, and Policy Pathways to Fertility Improvement in OECD Countries. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.3390/ijerph20064790
- The paper
- Zhang, T.-T., Cai, X.-Y., Shi, X.-H., Zhu, W., & Shan, S.-N. (2023). The Effect of Family Fertility Support Policies on Fertility, Their Contribution, and Policy Pathways to Fertility Improvement in OECD Countries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20064790
