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Cited by 33Economics of Agriculture and Food MarketsAgriculture Sustainability and Environmental ImpactAgricultural and Food Production Studies

The rise of a middle class in East and Southern Africa: Implications for food system transformation

Open access
Tshirley, David, Reardon, Thomas, Dolislager, Michael, Snyder, Jason·2014·WIDER Working Paper
DOI 10.35188/unu-wider/2014/840-7
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Abstract

We examine the implications of the rise of a middle class in East and Southern Africa for food consumption patterns and the food system. A unique classification of food items shows that highly processed food has one-third of the purchased food market, with comparable shares in rural and urban areas (31 per cent vs 35 per cent), and among the vulnerable and upper middle classes (33 per cent vs 41 per cent). By linking FAOSTAT import data to consumption bundles, we show that the net import share falls with income in urban areas. Implications for food system change to 2040 are discussed.

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Crossref · 10.35188/unu-wider/2014/840-7

Cites

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  • FBD is likely to increase in LMICs as the result of massive increases in the consumption of risky foods (livestock and fish products and produce) and lengthening and broadening value chains.

    “FBD is likely to increase in LMICs as the result of massive increases in the consumption of risky foods (livestock and fish products and produce) and lengthening and broadening value chains.”

    From Food Safety in Low and Middle Income Countries (2015) · cites this paper as [84]

    Section 3.2 projects explosive growth in purchases of perishable foods in East and Southern Africa and describes rising consumption of fruit, fish, and animal proteins. But the paper does not predict that foodborne disease (FBD) will increase in LMICs or attribute such an increase to longer and broader value chains. Section 4 instead discusses how supermarkets could reduce food-safety problems. (LLM, conf=0.85)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Consumption of fresh, perishable, more risky foods is growing rapidly in LMICs, driven by increasing population, income, urbanization and globalization.

    “Firstly, consumption of fresh, perishable, more risky foods is growing rapidly, driven by increasing population, income, urbanization and globalization.”

    From Food Safety in Low and Middle Income Countries (2015) · cites this paper as [84]

    Section 3.2 projects explosive growth in purchased perishable foods in East and Southern Africa, using assumptions about income growth and rural and urban population. It does not establish rapid growth across LMICs generally, characterize the foods as more risky, or identify globalization as a driver. The reported growth is a projection, not an observed trend. (LLM, conf=0.87)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Even in East and South Africa, per capita expenditure on perishables is set to quadruple by 2040 and the total market size increase by a factor of eight.

    “Even in East and South Africa, which are not the fastest growing markets, per capita expenditure on perishables is set to quadruple by 2040 and the total market size increase by a factor of eight [84].”

    From Food Safety in Low and Middle Income Countries (2015) · cites this paper as [84]

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Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. [19]19. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (2011). Increasing Agricultural Productivity and Enhancing Food Security in Africa: New Challenges and Opportunities. Synopsis of a Conference held 1-3 November 2011, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  2. [22]22. Minten, B., and T. Reardon (2008). 'Food Prices, Quality, and Quality's Pricing in Supermarkets versus Traditional Markets in Developing Countries.' Review of Agricultural Economics, 30(3): 480-90.

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Authors
Tshirley, D., Reardon, T., Dolislager, M., & Snyder, J.
Affiliations
Michigan State University (US)
ORCID
Reardon, Thomas
Venue
WIDER Working Paper
Publisher
UNU-WIDER
Published
2014
ISSN
1798-7237 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.35188/unu-wider/2014/840-7
OpenAlex
W3125986227
Cited by
33
References
40
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 2 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 1
FWCI
5.19
Type
book
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Working Paper Series (publishedVersion)
  • Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
Funders
United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Food Science › Agricultural and Food Production Studies
Keywords
middle class, food consumption patterns, food system transformation, ultra-processed foods, food imports, income and consumption, urban-rural differences, vulnerable populations, East Africa, Southern Africa

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