Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty
Open accessAbstract
In this paper we make estimates of the potential short-term economic impact of COVID-19 on global monetary poverty through contractions in per capita household income or consumption. Our estimates are based on three scenarios: low, medium, and high global contractions of 5, 10, and 20 per cent; we calculate the impact of each of these scenarios on the poverty headcount using the international poverty lines of US$1.90, US$3.20 and US$5.50 per day. Our estimates show that COVID-19 poses a real challenge to the UN Sustainable Development Goal of ending poverty by 2030 because global poverty could increase for the first time since 1990 and, depending on the poverty line, such increase could represent a reversal of approximately a decade in the world’s progress in reducing poverty. In some regions the adverse impacts could result in poverty levels similar to those recorded 30 years ago. Under the most extreme scenario of a 20 per cent income or consumption contraction, the number of people living in poverty could increase by 420–580 million, relative to the latest official recorded figures for 2018. Related content Read the Press Release: COVID-19 fallout could push half a billion people into poverty in developing countries
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The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven ScenariosPreprint
McKibbin, W. J., & Fernando, R. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3547729 · Cited by 1,526 · see citing works
Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures
Almenfi, M. B. A., Gentilini, U., Orton, I., & Dale, P. (2020) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/33635 · Cited by 620 · see citing works
Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures
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Sectoral Productivity Growth and Poverty Reduction: National and Global Impacts
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Estimating Global Poverty in Stata : The Povcalnet Command
Aguilar, R. A. C., Lakner, C., Prydz, E. B., et al. (2019) · Cited by 6 · see citing works
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Kola, L., Kohrt, B. A., Hanlon, C., Naslund, J. A., Sikander, S., Balaji, M., Benjet, C., Cheung, E. Y. L., Eaton, J., Gonsalves, P., et al. (2021) · The Lancet Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/s2215-0366(21)00025-0 · Cited by 835 · see citing works
Buheji, M., da Costa Cunha, K., Beka, G., Mavrić, B., Leandro do Carmo de Souza, Y., Souza da Costa Silva, S., Hanafi, M., & Chetia Yein, T. (2020) · American Journal of Economics · doi:10.5923/j.economics.20201004.02 · Cited by 474 · see citing works
COVID-19 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals: Threat to Solidarity or an Opportunity?
Leal Filho, W., Brandli, L. L., Lange Salvia, A., Rayman-Bacchus, L., & Platje, J. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12135343 · Cited by 334 · see citing works
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Digital Solutions for Community and Primary Health Workers: Lessons From Implementations in Africa
Owoyemi, A., Osuchukwu, J. I., Azubuike, C., Ikpe, R. K., Nwachukwu, B. C., Akinde, C. B., Biokoro, G. W., Ajose, A. B., Nwokoma, E. I., Mfon, N. E., et al. (2022) · Frontiers in Digital Health · doi:10.3389/fdgth.2022.876957 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
“Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing health access disparities in the population from low- and middleincome countries revealing gaps in access to care and worse outcomes especially for people of low socioeconomic background (5).”
BackgroundRETRACTED ARTICLE: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic and sustainability
Wei, X., Li, L., & Zhang, F. (2021) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-021-14986-0 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
RetractedSideropoulos, V., Van Herwegen, J., Meuleman, B., Alessandri, M., Alnemary, F. M., Rad, J. A., Lavenex, P. A. B., Bolshakov, N., Bölte, S., Buffle, P., et al. (2023) · Journal of Global Health · doi:10.7189/jogh.13.04081 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
- Authors
- Sumner, A., Hoy, C., & Ortiz-Juarez, E.
- Venue
- WIDER Working Paper
- Publisher
- UNU-WIDER
- Published
- 2020
- ISSN
- 1798-7237 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3016089045
- Cited by
- 783
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 70 · 2023: 109 · 2022: 162 · 2021: 235 · 2020: 175
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Working Paper Series (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Income, Poverty, and Inequality
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Poverty, Education, and Child Welfare
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, global poverty, income poverty, consumption, poverty headcount, poverty line, Sustainable Development Goal 1, developing countries
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