How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?
Open accessAbstract
The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of , consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST . The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is for WFIRST , for LSST, and for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.
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Assuming the gravitational wave network works well, Scolnic et al. (2018) estimate LSST could find of order 70 electromagnetic counterparts to standard sirens.
“Assuming that the gravitational wave network is working well, Scolnic et al. ( 2018 ) estimate that LSST could fi nd of order 70 electromagnetic counterparts to standard sirens.”
From LSST: From Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products (2019) · cites this paper as Scolnic et al. ( 2018 )
LSST is expected to discover about 7 gravitational-wave associated sources per year.
“with an estimate of ∼ 7 discoveries per year ( Scolnic et al. 2018 )”
From LSST: From Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products (2019) · cites this paper as Scolnic et al. 2018
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- Authors
- Scolnic, D., Kessler, R., Brout, D., Cowperthwaite, P. S., Soares-Santos, M., Annis, J., Herner, K., Chen, H.-Y., Sako, M., Doctor, Z., Butler, R. E., Palmese, A., Diehl, H. T., Frieman, J., Holz, D. E., Berger, E., Chornock, R., Villar, V. A., Nicholl, M., Biswas, R., Hounsell, R., Foley, R. J., Metzger, J., Rest, A., García-Bellido, J., Möller, A., Nugent, P., Abbott, T. M. C., Abdalla, F. B., Allam, S., Bechtol, K., Benoit-Lévy, A., Bertin, E., Brooks, D., Buckley-Geer, E., Rosell, A. C., Kind, M. C., Carretero, J., Castander, F. J., Cunha, C. E., D’Andrea, C. B., Costa, L. N. D., Davis, C., Doel, P., Drlica-Wagner, A., Eifler, T. F., Flaugher, B., Fosalba, P., Gaztanaga, E., Gerdes, D. W., Gruen, D., Gruendl, R. A., Gschwend, J., Gutierrez, G., Hartley, W. G., Honscheid, K., James, D. J., Johnson, M. W. G., Johnson, M. D., Krause, E., Kuehn, K., Kuhlmann, S., Lahav, O., Li, T. S., Lima, M., Maia, M. A. G., March, M., Marshall, J. L., Menanteau, F., Miquel, R., Neilsen, E., Plazas, A. A., Sanchez, E., Scarpine, V., Schubnell, M., Sevilla-Noarbe, I., Smith, M., Smith, R. C., Sobreira, F., Suchyta, E., Swanson, M. E. C., Tarle, G., Thomas, R. C., Tucker, D. L., Walker, A. R., & (DES Collaboration)
- Affiliations
- University of Chicago (US)
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Center for Astrophysics Harvard & Smithsonian (US)
- Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (US)
- University College London (GB)
- Ohio University (US)
- Stockholm University (SE)
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- University of California, Santa Cruz (US)
- Space Telescope Science Institute (US)
- Instituto de Física Teórica (ES)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
- Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CL)
- Rhodes University (ZA)
- Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Corporation (US)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- National Observatory (BR)
- Institute for High Energy Physics (ES)
- Institute of Space Sciences (ES)
- Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology (US)
- California Institute of Technology (US)
- University of Michigan (US)
- SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (US)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- The Ohio State University (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- National Center for Supercomputing Applications (US)
- Australian Astronomical Observatory (AU)
- Argonne National Laboratory (US)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- Texas A&M University (US)
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ES)
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US)
- Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas (ES)
- University of Southampton (GB)
- Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Scolnic, D.
- Kessler, R.
- Brout, D.
- Cowperthwaite, P. S.
- Soares-Santos, M.
- Annis, J.
- Herner, K.
- Chen, H.-Y.
- Sako, M.
- Doctor, Z.
- Butler, R. E.
- Palmese, A.
- Diehl, H. T.
- Frieman, J.
- Holz, D. E.
- Berger, E.
- Chornock, R.
- Villar, V. A.
- Nicholl, M.
- Biswas, R.
- Hounsell, R.
- Foley, R. J.
- Metzger, J.
- Rest, A.
- García-Bellido, J.
- Möller, A.
- Nugent, P.
- Abbott, T. M. C.
- Abdalla, F. B.
- Allam, S.
- Bechtol, K.
- Benoit-Lévy, A.
- Bertin, E.
- Brooks, D.
- Rosell, A. Carnero
- Kind, M. Carrasco
- Carretero, J.
- Castander, F. J.
- D’Andrea, C. B.
- Costa, L. N. da
- Davis, C.
- Doel, P.
- Drlica-Wagner, A.
- Eifler, T. F.
- Flaugher, B.
- Fosalba, P.
- Gerdes, D. W.
- Gruen, D.
- Gruendl, R. A.
- Gschwend, J.
- Gutierrez, G.
- Hartley, W. G.
- Honscheid, K.
- James, D. J.
- Johnson, M. W. G.
- Johnson, M. D.
- Krause, E.
- Kuehn, K.
- Lahav, O.
- Li, T. S.
- Lima, M.
- Maia, M. A. G.
- March, M.
- Marshall, J. L.
- Menanteau, F.
- Miquel, R.
- Neilsen, E.
- Plazas, A. A.
- Sanchez, E.
- Schubnell, M.
- Sevilla-Noarbe, I.
- Smith, M.
- Smith, R. C.
- Sobreira, F.
- Suchyta, E.
- Swanson, M. E. C.
- Tarle, G.
- Tucker, D. L.
- Walker, A. R.
- Venue
- The Astrophysical Journal Letters
- Publisher
- American Astronomical Society
- Published
- 2017-12-22
- Volume
- 852
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- L3
- ISSN
- 2041-8205 (ISSN-L)
- 2041-8213
- OpenAlex
- W2765202325
- Cited by
- 78
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 3
- FWCI
- 4.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- The Astrophysical Journal Letters (publishedVersion)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
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- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
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- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
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- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1518052, 1536171, 1125897, 1411763, 1714498, NAS 5-26555, 1138766)
- U.S. Department of Energy (NAS 5-26555, 51383)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX16AC22G, NNX15AE50G, 14-WPS14-0048, NAS 526555, 526555)
- Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
- Washington Research Foundation
- University of California, Santa Cruz
- University of Pennsylvania
- Ohio State University
- University of Chicago (PHY-1125897, NAS 5-26555)
- University of Washington (NAS 5-26555)
- University of Portsmouth (NAS 5-26555)
- National Centre for Supercomputing Applications
- Space Telescope Science Institute (NAS5- 26555, 5-26555, 26555)
- University College London
- University of Sussex
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (NAS 5-26555, AST-1536171, AST-1138766)
- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich
- Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
- Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
- Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos
- Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
- Institut de Física d'Altes Energies
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
- Center for Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, Ohio State University
- Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago
- Science and Technology Facilities Council (ST/M001334/1)
- Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas
- Integrated Electronics Engineering Center, Binghamton University
- Argonne National Laboratory
- Fermilab (NAS 5-26555)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
- SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Astrophysical Phenomena and Observations
- Keywords
- kilonova, GW170817, multi-messenger astronomy, gravitational wave follow-up, transient survey, binary neutron star mergers, Type Ia supernovae, core-collapse supernovae, LSST, WFIRST, ATLAS, Zwicky Transient Facility, detection efficiency
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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