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Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses
Open accessAbstract
We prove that local projections (LPs) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimate the same impulse responses. This nonparametric result only requires unrestricted lag structures. We discuss several implications: (i) LP and VAR estimators are not conceptually separate procedures; instead, they are simply two dimension reduction techniques with common estimand but different finite‐sample properties. (ii) VAR‐based structural identification—including short‐run, long‐run, or sign restrictions—can equivalently be performed using LPs, and vice versa. (iii) Structural estimation with an instrument (proxy) can be carried out by ordering the instrument first in a recursive VAR, even under noninvertibility. (iv) Linear VARs are as robust to nonlinearities as linear LPs.
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Cited by
Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think
Montiel Olea, J. L., & Plagborg-Møller, M. (2021) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta18756 · Cited by 437
Self-citationThreats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter
Bianchi, F., Gómez-Cram, R., Kind, T., & Kung, H. (2023) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.001 · Cited by 89
Karau, S. (2023) · Journal of International Money and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102880 · Cited by 70
Metadata
- Authors
- Plagborg-Møller, M., & Wolf, C. K.
- Venue
- Econometrica
- Publisher
- The Econometric Society
- Published
- 2021
- Volume
- 89
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 955-980
- ISSN
- 0012-9682 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3136038698
- Cited by
- 732
- References
- 51
- FWCI
- 156.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
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